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TD Bank stock heavly shorted - is this the end ?

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silentkisser

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Jun 10, 2008
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Soccersweeper said:
There has never been a Canadian bank bailout because they are so well run. The last time short sellers went after the banks for what was called the big white short, they got burned. The two systems are different and there is nothing to se here
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Hate to break it to you, but they all got billions from the Feds during the financial crisis.


Now, Canadian banks, historically, have been risk adverse compared to the investment banks in the US. I'd say the odds TD goes down the toilet are slim to nil. Now, they are being hammered over money laundering allegations, so we'll see what shakes out.
 
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ValuedSupporter

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silentkisser said:
I'd say the odds TD goes down the toilet are slim to nil. Now, they are being hammered over money laundering allegations, so we'll see what shakes out.
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Agreed. I'm just responding to "TD is the best" [investment I assume]. Not really over the last 5 years. TD steps in shit every 15 years or so it's about this time.
 
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Soccersweeper

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silentkisser said:
Hate to break it to you, but they all got billions from the Feds during the financial crisis.


Now, Canadian banks, historically, have been risk adverse compared to the investment banks in the US. I'd say the odds TD goes down the toilet are slim to nil. Now, they are being hammered over money laundering allegations, so we'll see what shakes out.
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Hate to break it to you but they didn't. Our banks had no capital issues at all. What happened was the Feds wanted to lend tens of billions immediately to get money in the economy. Rather than create an agency from scratch with no experience, the solution was buy tones of insured mortgages from the banks. By taking these assets off their hands and giving them oodles of cash in exchange, the banks were able to lend that money out, something their capital ratios would not have allowed if they still had all those assets. The banks were happy to do that, it was an efficient market so,union to get money in the system overseen by people who do that for a living, and as part of the deal, the government bought the mortgages at a little less than FMV. None of those mortgages caused them a loss, and so when they were paid in full the government made a profit. In other words, the banks gave the government money. Ain't facts and history a bitch when making things up?
 
Adam_hadam

Adam_hadam

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Feb 26, 2008
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silentkisser said:
Hate to break it to you, but they all got billions from the Feds during the financial crisis.


Now, Canadian banks, historically, have been risk adverse compared to the investment banks in the US. I'd say the odds TD goes down the toilet are slim to nil. Now, they are being hammered over money laundering allegations, so we'll see what shakes out.
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Caldwell on Market Call today: his insight is whenever the penalty on TD is assessed the stock should fall then it's time to buy back in. Makes sense to me.
 
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Carvher

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Apr 13, 2010
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TD is poorly run. CEO should be canned. I can't believe he is still there. I sold my TD stock and hold only Royal now.
 
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sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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teen101111 said:
Interesting, would you consider index funds right now? Seems a bit, risky buying in near the top, average returns on s&p is around 7-10% right? So all that risk for an extra 2-5% on the year vs GIC
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so you're still in GICs ? told you, long term, just be in invested in the markets instead of trying to steal from the market (get in and out at the right times) ...that extra 2 to 5 percent ended being a lot higher in 2023 and 2024.

and, you know how compound interest works ...even if its "only" 5 percent more in one year (even 2 percent), that adds up big time over time, even if the additional return isn't guaranteed every year and can be obviously negative some years (on the flip side, obviously MMKT funds aren't gonna give you 5 percent per forever).
 
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sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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teen101111 said:
Why short equity when you can hedge with puts? Theta decay? If you were short in 06 it was a tad early, similar to burry

Also, what you just described to Lehman is similar to the situation now, no? Also you mentioned TD could hedge risk, yet you said Lehman hedged risk but it ended up failing? I never read into Lehman, but you're saying they were short, curious why they didn't use securitized loans or CDS to hedge?

Right now I know plenty of people who got mortgages with minimum wage by moving their cash around a bit (which was taught by the bankers) in order to get approved for mortgages, can't say I know a bunch in default, except one who was foreclosed. Of course this was all at TD bank. Plenty of repo's



Believe me I won't be just allocating my money because a stranger said so online, but I am curious your thoughts considering you saw the 08 financial crisis in 06.

The smartest people I know (way wealthier than I will ever be) have only been buying GIC's/bonds.
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"The smartest people I know (way wealthier than I will ever be) have only been buying GIC's/bonds."

not so smart, i guess
 
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dirkd101

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Even though they still have a great dividend, I dumped 3/4s of my position on TD. Ever since they got slammed in the US, I've watched their stock plummet here and I just couldn't take it anymore. It's not a loss, per se, but I would have liked to hold on and see a better rate of return, but I just don't see that happening for a long time.
 
barnacler

barnacler

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Canadian banks have failed in the past. From what i know in the modern era depositors haven't lost funds, but shareholders have been wiped out.

Bank of BC.

Northland Bank.
 
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sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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dirkd101 said:
Even though they still have a great dividend, I dumped 3/4s of my position on TD. Ever since they got slammed in the US, I've watched their stock plummet here and I just couldn't take it anymore. It's not a loss, per se, but I would have liked to hold on and see a better rate of return, but I just don't see that happening for a long time.
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yet the stock bounced
 
barnacler

barnacler

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sprite09 said:
td is not gonna fail
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Depends what you mean by fail.

Fail can mean outright bankruptcy, shut the thuing down=type of thing,

or a recapitalization where shareholders and bondholders lose everything yet the banks operations continue,

or the same thing except bondholders dont lose,

or just a forced injection of all kinds of capital in return for an enormous dilution of the shares,

or a forced merger at very punishing terms.

Regardless, if I'm a shareholder, if I lose, like, 75% on something, good enough, that's a FAIL in my books!
 
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sprite09

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Aug 10, 2020
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barnacler said:
Depends what you mean by fail.

Fail can mean outright bankruptcy, shut the thuing down=type of thing,

or a recapitalization where shareholders and bondholders lose everything yet the banks operations continue,

or the same thing except bondholders dont lose,

or just a forced injection of all kinds of capital in return for an enormous dilution of the shares,

or a forced merger at very punishing terms.

Regardless, if I'm a shareholder, if I lose, like, 75% on something, good enough, that's a FAIL in my books!
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lol none of those scenarios will happen ... even if you lose realised 75 percent (not gonna happen), that's on you for panic selling... this isn't a penny stock
 
barnacler

barnacler

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sprite09 said:
lol none of those scenarios will happen ... even if you lose realised 75 percent (not gonna happen), that's on you for panic selling... this isn't a penny stock
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Well, never say never in investing. I don't own and have never owned TD Bank.

I was discussing what it might mean to be considered a fail.

There have been many, many stocks that have been down 75% where, in hindsight, investors wished they had sold rather than hung on.
 
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