Stock tips?

[Fortunato]

You should read the latest company report on the so-called new tech.

I have. I follow this one closely, because friends of mine have been "fleeced" by it, still hold disturbingly large positions, and want to talk about it incessantly.

Something I have known for a long time - the tech is sound and works better than expected...

Of course... and I trust "Mining Engineer" is one of your many other accomplishments?

I've seen many, many juniors claim to have the "next best thing" in leeching/extraction technology, only for that to dissipate in a production environment (large, less controlled, processing massive amounts of ore), if it ever gets there - a defunct Lyon Lake, for example (LLL).

Moreover, the technology is not unique to Chesbar/Jaguar. What I mean by this is that if a new leeching technology would improve the economic feasibility for JNI, it would do so for any other mine site out there (it is not contingent on the geology of the Guatemalan property). So, relatively speaking, their competitive stature is not likely to be improved (i.e. still a "dud").

...and the patents are all in place.

True, but for who? Last I heard, it wasn't JNI's technology, but a partner's.

You might want to call this gambling - I refer to it as an educated quess. It something I have manage to do successfully on several unproven projects. I will say my position is less than 10% of my net-worth - so not gambling.

If it looks, smells and quacks like a duck....

I'm glad for your successes (if not mystified), but it is STILL gambling (regardless of how much of your money you are betting...). Much, much more can go disasterously wrong here than can go well.

Anyways I did say that this was a long shot but one with the potential to move back to it's highs in the very near future.

You did... but you didn't say why. What will happen in the near horizon that people will suddenly get excited about a piece of dirt in Guatemala with a sparse amount of nickel in it?

Time will tell if I'm right or your right

True.

...to me this is not gambling but investing in a project, good people running the place,

Who? What exactly have "they" done? Took a gold exploration company... but when he didn't find gold, they decided that they should pick up a disgarded, uneconomical nickel property in Guatemala (of all places), and became a NICKEL exploration company. Then they changed the name (because everyone in the business knew that Chesbar was THE name in gold, and we wouldn't want to go around confusing people).

Oh yeah... and they just rewarded themselves with another batch of options to spread around the bankers and consultants. Good work, guys.

.. the backing of Scotia Mcleod

Wha...? It's an investment bank... they sell product (both good and bad) to anyone who will buy it.... Inco is backed by bankers. Bre-X was backed by bankers.

If you evaluate an investment by the fact that a banker wants to sell it to you....

...and reliable, trust worthy reports by the Company.

Well, we don't disagree there. Go back and look at their news releases. Mostly they say less than fantastic things about assay results, and the absurd costs that would likely be required to move ahead with a mining operation.

Everything else "reported" has been off the record, "casual talk" from those who would promote....

I don't get to worried about people calling it gambling - My last succesfull shot in the dark was a Company that was using a new tech for cell phones - I saw advantages to that new tech. and bought that Company - Qualcom at 25.00US.

Congratulations again. Surely this experience directly translates to metallurgical insights that no one else can see....

But I put my .02, told everyone I was ahead on the deal and where I thought it would go - you use faulty info to dismiss it that's your call - I really don't care I only put it out there for people to look at and make there own decission.

Well, I'm not using "faulty info" for anything, but I will admit that I don't consider it a sensible investment for any portfolio (even the gamblers can find better odds elsewhere, in my opinion). Like I said, I hope you ARE right (my friends will be very well off), but I've seen this too often to know better....


F.

 

[red]

Wha...? It's an investment bank... they sell product (both good and bad) to anyone who will buy it.... Inco is backed by bankers. Bre-X was backed by bankers.

from the tone of your post- you seem bearish on bre-X?

 

[wollensak]

OIL & Resources

Why anyone would bother investing in Tech stocks is beyond me.

China has the worlds fastest growing economy and they are overloading the ability of resource producers to keep up.

They are about to buy Noranda for $6.6 billion dollars.
They are not finished in the Canadian resources market.

Oil is $50 a barrel. I'd be looking at CDN oil stocks and mineral stocks. Screw Nortel.

What about AUR and CMT for starters. As I write, Nortel is tanking again. Pick a bottom price, say $3.60CDN and blow it out the doors at $4.25. This is a speculative stock, period.

 

[Fortunato]

It just seems you like to take the negative view of every post of mine...

Not so much "like" as "feel compelled"... on account of the genius you continue to share. I even tried to give you a "pass" on this one, but when you came back to it the second time....

...and there a lot smarter people than you buying into this stock...

Doubt it. Present company included.

- perhaps you should look at the mutual fund purchases regarding this stock - Some top tier names are involved but I know what your going to say - so was Bre-X and you would be right but that was then, this is now an new rules are in place since Bre-x.

There are no new "anti-stupidity" rules. That said, I'd love to see your "list of prominent mutual funds" that are dumping money into a speculative Guatemalan nickel penny stock. Seriously. Any example you can offer.

The Tech. is new and that is what drew Scotia Mccleod to this project. Now your BS point about Bre-x forgets to tell people that all but the last issue of stock was done at one of the very small firms in Toronto which didn't do it's due dilgence and when the majors came in they assumed it was done and used Company data as gospil. That's why the Bre-x fraud happened - a lack of due dilgence. I can tell you this that Scotia McCleod turned JNI upside before they came in.

You're missing the point - no one is accusing JNI of "salting" the 1% nickel assays (that Transmetales and Cominco walked away from)... that's just stupid. The point is, Scotia Capital is involved for BANKING FEES. That's it. Not technology. Not assay results. Just BANKING FEES. Because they are an INVESTMENT BANK. And... brace yourself... THAT'S WHAT INVESTMENT BANKS DO.

They could care less if the project flies or dies... one of a million.

...and with the valuation model I'm using for JNI I get a 3.40US value for the Company based on proven resources which is only going to expand this drilling season. (Grant it I have to correct that number because the exchange rate changes).

So... you have a "valuation model" based on proven resources ($3 million Canadian, per 2003 financial statements) that gives you $3.40US a share (with over 110 million shares), when we have no idea what the operating costs of a Guatemalan mine would be (other that unbelievably high, according to management's news release estimates).

Were it someone else... I would be surprised.

Now I would publish a more balanced stock potfolio but a jerk like you is just going to tear it up with useless bullshit, so I won't bother wasting my time.

Quite the contrary... you have shown that "useless bullshit" is yours, and the wasted time is ours....


Good luck, nonetheless.

F.

 

[Malibook]

Have you guys met before?

Fortunato, please post more often.

 

[Fortunato]

Look asshat - I have done my research and really don't care what you think...

And "quality" research it is. I bet you're proud.

...no you really don't know the industry that well - Scotia McCleod does not do deals in small dollars.

Scotia McCleod doesn't exist anymore. Scotia Capital, on the other hand, has served as an investment banker for the firm. In fact, one of the bankers is on JNI's board.

And as for "no small dollars"... Scotia Capital raised $21 million for the company (what a "monster" deal, eh?)... and it took $3.7 million for itself to do so. THAT IS WHY THEY BACK JNI... 15% banking fees.

...And the quotes for the operating costs are already out there - look them up yourself.

So... then are you assuming the U$425 million, or the U$920 million for capital costs (both in the estimate range given by management)? Surely, there will be an impact on your "model" one way or another....

Anyways I have no use for bullshit - its amazing that you can this minor post into something personal. Your post is just to get rise...

No, my post is to keep a petty penny-stock tout from hurting other people with his "recommendations". If the "investment" were sound, there wouldn't be anything I could say about it, now would there?

Ever notice how the "investment examples" you are so proud of(Qualcom, AOL, etc.) seem to end in a "over-hyped, last one holding the bag" kind of crash? Might shed some light as to why you're "sharing" your gems with us....

As for mutual fund - if your such fucken genius in finance you should know where to look that up - so I'll leave that up to you. lionshare.com Since your so stupid I took pity on you

Ah... a page with links to two mutual funds, and a number of chat boards. Priceless, those kind of investing resources.

Let me try again: can you show me an annual report of a mutual fund that holds JNI? I've looked through the ones associated with your link (Fidelity, Altamira)... I've looked through the ones offered by BMO. Not anywhere there (even in the specialised "mining" funds).

Funds don't tell you what they hold between reporting dates (they consider it "proprietary" information, but it makes "window dressing" a problem). But still, I'd LOVE to find even one credible mutual fund that would confess to owning this dog....

As for changes - the TSX imposed new rules on how samples are to be recorded and audited before a news release can be done - look it up genius.

And AGAIN, NO ONE IS ACCUSING THEM OF SALTING 1% ASSAYS... GENIUS. So this "protection" is irrelevant. People are still free to dump money in uneconomical, make-believe mines to their hearts' content.

It doesn't have to be fraud to be a bad investment.


And this one is pretty bad.


F.

 

[red]

Some economically viable nickel finds and assay levels:

Donaldson Deposit @ 4.40% Ni, 1.00% Cu, 6.6g/t PGMs
Delta Oasis Deposit @ 3.05% Ni, 1.26% Cu, 2.25g/t PGMs
Cross Lake Deposit @ 2.06% Ni, 1.05% Cu, 5.95g/t PGMs
Katinniq Deposit @ 3.10% Ni, 1.00% Cu, PGMs n/a ??

 

[stang]

GUY (TSX) has had a good little run up lately.

Can DMX possibly go higher next week?

 

[ice_dog]

It is easy to say ' buy low, sell high'. The truth is that a stock can stay in a band for a long time before it can break out.

Timing is everything. The key is get on board as soon as stock starts its steep ascent. In other words, catch a stock when it is in its up trend. Nortel is low alright, but is it in an up trend ? I don't think so. Neither is Bombardier.

Alogoma Steel is in its up trend. I bought some at $14.85 in early September. It is now $23.

Over in NYSE, I sold my GMR too soon at $29, which I bought at$20, earlier in the summer. It finished today @37


A couple more NYSE stocks which are in up- trend are GES, HLT
and SAY.

Stocks definitely in down trend are MRK, KKD,..etc. I would also stay away from airline stocks righ now. Maybe later, but not now.

For more information about stocks with good relative strength, read the Investor's Business Daily

p.s. I sold my NT @ 7.9 and 8.8, earlier this year.

 

[sweet guy]

NOK

 

[ice_dog]

Yes, you may have a winner with NOK. Looks like the worst is over for NOK. It is forming head and shoulder:


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NOK&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=


BTW, GMR hit $38 today. I am kicking myself in the ass.

 

[danmand]

Have you guys not gotten it yet: The only one who has any knowledge of economics or business or politics or ... is BBKING.

We are so darn lucky that he will give and give and give so generously of his limitless knowledge.

PS: One small point. He could have a bit more compassion and understanding for the rest of us, who do not possess his level of knowledge.

 

[Fortunato]

Scotia Mcleod - old habit - BTW they don't do these kind of small deals unless they are pretty sure they are doing a bigger deal - 15% is about what a small house would charge anyway.

Wrong. They take fees whenever they can.

As of today it's up about 35% since I first wrote about it but I know it was from a low - still think this is going to 2.40 sooner rather than later. So much for your bad investment - jackass.

Well... why did it move from $.40 to $.75? Why will they go to $2.40? Because they are "moving to production"? Big news? Earnings? Kicking out nickel like it's going out of style?

No. Speculators like yourself "hoping". And potentially suckering others into "hoping".

If your "grand theory" of why JNI is a wonderful investment for a portfolio of quality companies is that "penny stocks are volatile"... well, again, it's logic that escapes me, but kudos to you. You genius.

...and, by the way, I think $0.75 is still a disappointing number to those who "invested" at $2.00 within the past year....

When the real story comes on this Company your going to look like an idiot.

What "real story" is "hidden"? What can you share that us "outsiders" just can't comprehend?

You spout off on anything and everything and you know nothing. Time and time again you prove your stupidity on economics or business. I orginally put this out with my view for whom ever to look at on their own and said it was a risk - but you had it make personal attack on me because you felt it wasn't something that belonged in a portfolio, again did I not mention it was risky - You attack personally because your wrong all the time - well it looks like I will right once again and you'll be on the whinny losing side again.

You've yet to be "right" about anything. Ever. (Even about your made up economic terms). In fact, you usually are unable to keep up with the discussion.

Mentioning it is risky is irrelevant... it is a DOG (and not exactly at it's LOWS either). You also mentioned that it had PROVEN reserves... but that isn't true, is it? And you said that professional money managers were falling over themselves to get a piece of it, which wasn't exactly true either, now was it?

Again, I hope you "win" here (because I have misguided friends who would also "win"), but that won't make it happen.


I just can't wait 'til you come back retrospectively and say "you should have sold at $0.80, like I did...". What a WONDERFUL investment indeed.

That's it for you, Tout.

F.

 

[danmand]

Memo to self: tomorrow, find out how the ignore function work.

 

[drg]

How about Investing where the money is

Looks like there are a lot guys on the board with in depth knowledge of mining stocks and market timing strategies. The problem with that strategy is that you are waiting for the stock to go up and then trying to get out before the other poor shmucks.

I have never been able to make those strategies work for small companies or any companies with high P/Es. The internet makes the playing field a little more level for the little guy.

So just use the internet to look for low P/E's, strong balance sheets, strong cash flow, good earnings growth, good revenue growth and insider buying. You won't find all these things in one stock so that when judgement is requires. But you can only apply judgement once you have gotten all the info.

Then to lower your risk you buy several stocks that meet the tests described above.

I think the Canadian market is getting a little over priced so you gotta take some chances on stocks that are temporarily out of favour.

My picks are:
ATI Technologies ATY on the TSX at 20.8
The Royal Bank RY at 59.5 on the TSX
Canon CAJ on the NYSE ADR at 49

 

[sweet guy]

Alcoa (AA) on the Dow below $33
Pfizer (PFE) on the Dow around $30-$31
Fairmont (FHR) on the TSX

 

[jhonny]

ENE

One to check out is ENE energy company, oil. currently at 1..08 range. Good buy should peak to 1.5 1.60 range.

 

[sweet guy]

Short ACE.SV at TSX
Short TA at TSX
Long SCC at TSX
Long TIF at S&P under $30
Sell RIM ASAP

 

[sweet guy]

Short WN at TSX when it hits around $101
Buy CL at S&P around $41
Buy AIG at DOW around $48-$49
Short TD at TSX

 

[baci2004]

hey guys, I got a tip on WDA - TSX as a buy and RN - TSX to watch

I haven't had a chance to do my homework yet. Any opinions on these?