STD Risk Calculator
- Thread starter The Fox
- Start date
Keep trying. There are good odds that no one has ever been infected that way. The research in the link I provided has an upper limit of a 1 in 2500 chance but that was simply the odds produced by not one person in the study getting infected.
My point being that you should not trust everything you read on the Internet - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3001541/
Fuck this thread, I'm out of here
Drive yourselves crazy guys, maybe you should just end your life now and then you no longer need to worry, lol
Drive yourselves crazy guys, maybe you should just end your life now and then you no longer need to worry, lol
You are foolish. Let me emphasize, it is very difficult to get clean research on this issue because very few people only do oral sex and totally abstain from vaginal/anal sex for long periods of time (i.e. years). You need a population like that to properly find out what the risk of HIV transmission via oral route actually is.
You say:
Here are CONFIRMED CASE REPORTS
So, STD Risk Calculator is pretty much exactly right with their article on HIV transmission that quotes the 1 in 10,000 figure...
By the way, there's piles more research papers, but I figured that: (a) a couple dozen confirmed case reports from independent sources, (b) a list of studies showing statistically significant risk, and (c) a screenshot of what is essentially a clinic manual for medicine, current as of 2012.
And again, review what I wrote about medical risk. I am correct to say that HIV is the main risk to consider with regard to oral sex, others being gonorrhea and HSV, although different doctors might give you different answers on this. In terms of risk versus cost to treat, HIV is your main risk. Each HIV infection costs the Canadian government huge sums of money (easily more than $1 million per patient).
By the way, there's piles more research papers, but I figured that: (a) a couple dozen confirmed case reports from independent sources, (b) a list of studies showing statistically significant risk, and (c) a screenshot of what is essentially a clinic manual for medicine, current as of 2012.
And again, review what I wrote about medical risk. I am correct to say that HIV is the main risk to consider with regard to oral sex, others being gonorrhea and HSV, although different doctors might give you different answers on this. In terms of risk versus cost to treat, HIV is your main risk. Each HIV infection costs the Canadian government huge sums of money (easily more than $1 million per patient).
Funny thing these rumors are! I've done an HIV PCR myself. The virus has been sequenced, you can read the genome (and all the genes and proteins) online if you want. So anyone can directly observe evidence of existence of the virus. So fair to say that, at least in my experience, it exists. There are other weird rumours like HIV doesn't cause AIDS, this one put forth by a nobel prize winner. Go figure. Either of these claims would be laughed at today though...
Be that as it may, where's the proof that it's not just a suppressed immune system giving false positive due to let's say common cold or HPV infection?
Actually the chance of HIV from oral is well documented based on studies of gay men not into anal. Both receiving and giving are risky. The only issue in the stats analysis is how many gay men are in the BBBJ only category. Transmission rates are significantboth to the giver and the recipiant.
You keep mentioning HPV with respect to genital warts and cervix cancer. That is true. But it is also true that more than half of the cancers diagnosed in the oropharynx are linked to HPV-16 and HPV types 16 and 18 have been found to cause close to half of penile cancers.
You also mention bacterial STIs are not a major problem. You might want to check your information. Even in Toronto the spread of strains that resist all oral drugs are becoming common. IV treatments still work but have associated risks. In Asia a strain has been identified that resists IV drugs as well.
Check your treatment protocols! Bacterial STIs from oral sex are becoming a life sentence in Asia NO TREATMENT OPTIONS. Do you really believe that they are not on the way across the water to us?
Well, it's an interesting point actually. The standard HIV test actually checks for antibodies (made by our bodies) in response to the infection, so this test could easily be fooled, if the antibodies were present for some reason, or if there was cross-reactivity with antibodies for another infection. This test is more likely going to be accidentally positive than accidentally negative (which is ideal when you have a screening test). We call this "high sensitivity".
Therefore, all HIV diagnoses are confirmed by a Western Blot and/or PCR test. These tests isolate the actual viral proteins or virus. So you take blood from a patient, you isolate the virus, then you amplify it using PCR. Or you isolate the proteins on a blot and use an antibody to identify them. We would just look under a microscope, but viruses are too small.
So these tests allow you to physically extract the virus from someone's blood, it's fair to say they have the infection. In medicine, this is one of "Koch's postulates"... Which says that if a patient has a disease, you should ideally be able to isolate the bug/virus that is causing the disease. Then you have the smoking gun.
Gene sequencing is very very simple. You read the genes in the sample. It is like a 1,000 pin lock, if the key matches the virus, the virus is there.
This part is a bit difficult because many such men still occasionally do anal intercourse... Did you have a particular study in mind from what you wrote?
Oh my! Eric Vittinghoff, PhD did one of the best studies involving a large population over 18 months. He found that the risk of oral transmission was much less than other activities. You can go look at the numbers. But bottom line he found that is was about 1/7 th as likely as unprotected anal sex.
Much lower risk. So 7 BBBJs are about as risky as one unprotected anal.
Much safer. But I think I would pass.
DO your own homework and look up his study.
Well I remember it was a few dozen gay couples who had erectile issues. But until I get access to the computer where I store semi-useless information I cannot quote a source.
If I get access before the thread is dead I will look it up.
Relatively recent study.
The CDC 2010 advice was the risk is lower than anal / vaginal but silent on how much lower pending further information. I do not remember any credible papers quantifying it as 'much lower'.
