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HungSowel

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I was thinking over the weekend to liquidate my S&P 500 ETF and putting the funds towards silver on Monday (yesterday) but I got cold feet. Currently, silver makes up ~5% of my portfolio going to ~15% if I sell VOO and put that towards silver.

I am 25% in gold and 40% in XIU, my portfolio is very commodities heavy already. Maybe I will go 10% into silver and put the rest into a money market account, I have zero regard for the S&P 500 now with all the US annexation talk going on and that stupid criminal charge against Powell.
 
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K Douglas

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Jan 5, 2005
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Room 112
HungSowel said:
I was thinking over the weekend to liquidate my S&P 500 ETF and putting the funds towards silver on Monday (yesterday) but I got cold feet. Currently, silver makes up ~5% of my portfolio going to ~15% if I sell VOO and put that towards silver.

I am 25% in gold and 40% in XIU, my portfolio is very commodities heavy already. Maybe I will go 10% into silver and put the rest into a money market account, I have zero regard for the S&P 500 now with all the US annexation talk going on and that stupid criminal charge against Powell.
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I tend to not put all my eggs in one basket, so to speak. I'm resource/mining heavy in my portfolio as well but I don't think I would go beyond 50%.
 
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HungSowel

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K Douglas said:
I tend to not put all my eggs in one basket, so to speak. I'm resource/mining heavy in my portfolio as well but I don't think I would go beyond 50%.
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I know. I do not like commodities in the long term, I am holding them until I spot a good stock to pickup but everything is so overvalued right now, there are no opportunities that I see right now.

I have my eye on intel, its P/E is total garbage but they have new CPUs and a new process node that is on paper more advanced and will arrive earlier than TSMC's new process node. The new CPUs built on a new process node will be available next week, if reviews of the CPU are good and the pricing is good (indicating good yields) then I will do a bit more research into intel and decide if I want to buy its stock. Having cutting edge fabs in the US is a license to print money. Intel still has alot of work to do with being able to take on external customers like Nvidia and Apple, but that is mostly a grinding type of work and not the type of work that requires brilliance.
 
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Caspertheghost

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Gold is already passing my prognostication (4825). Silver almost there (97+). Whee!!!!

Copper and natural gas also in play … and will continue to be.
 
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LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal

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I'm writing covered calls on Hecla Mining ( HL) and the strategy seems to be working for the last few months so long as gold/silver are in the spot light . I'd like to sell secured puts, but my exchange is asking for too much margin.
 
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Caspertheghost

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At some point some if these smaller miners will be taken out by the majors. Have to think carefully about which ones are candidates. Hecla may be one. Aya, Aris, Centerra, Endeavour, Seabridge maybe a few others. A good trade is just pile into GDX and GDXJ as well as HUZ.
 
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Caspertheghost

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Gold almost 5000 tonight and Silver about 97.

You are welcome, everyone. Now, for my next trick…

I have made about 200k this week on those “guesses”, plus copper. Hate Trump, but the volatility is a total money making opportunity!
 
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HungSowel

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I did more research into silver. I thought it was primarily the AI buildout that is driving silver prices but it is solar panels. ~20% of silver is used in solar panels, ~4% is used in EVs, ~3% used in AI datacenters.

Newer solar panels use 2-3x more silver and have ~24% efficientcy, older solar panels have a 19% efficientcy. Newer panels started to become popular since 2023. Newer panels are ~50% more expensive, but the cost of installing panels is many times the cost of a solar panel so the increase in price is immaterial and the ROI on installing new panels vs old is still about 10 years.

My biggest fear was that if AI does crash, which it will, it will take silver with it. In that scenario, Silver will crash but it will be a small crash and will recover quickly vs AI stocks.

My minor fear is the gold to silver ratio which is now 50:1, but silver is primarily an industrial metal and gold is primarily an investment metal nowadays. Historically both were investment metals so the ratio was more important in the past IMHO. Around 2016 the ratio was ~43:1.

If you believe in solar panels and EVs, then silver is a buy even at current prices. Treat AI demand for silver as icing on the cake.

I will likely liquidate some US equities and buy more silver.

In the long term, there are even newer higher efficiency solar panels that do not use silver but those panels have durability issues. If durability issues are solved and they start to take market share then I would dump silver. Currently these new panels make up ~1% of new panels sold.
 
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oil&gas

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Ghawar
HungSowel said:
Updated my post. Silver is primarily an industrial metal and gold is primarily an investment metal.
Click to expand...
Silver was for many centuries the monetary metal.

Silver's historical role as the monetary metal is coming
back as gold is becoming too expensive for world's central
banks to add to their reserve funds.
 
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HungSowel

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Sold VOO and used the money to buy more silver this morning. I was thinking there would be a pullback when prices moved through the psychological barrier of $100 and I would be able to pick up silver for a bit cheaper if I waited, but fuck it.

I was saving the firepower for Intel stock because their new chip fabs looked promising, but the CEO said that yields are not great on the new fab process. Intel dropped 17% today from a combination of bad news. It might still be a buying opportunity, but I think time is on my side.

I hold Berkshire, which has been a lame duck for the past year. I keep hearing that the market is rotating into defensive value stocks but Berkshire still gets no love. I will liquidate Berkshire if an opportunity shows up.
 
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K Douglas

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Gold is now the 2nd largest reserve currency in the world.
 
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Caspertheghost

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K Douglas said:
I tend to not put all my eggs in one basket, so to speak. I'm resource/mining heavy in my portfolio as well but I don't think I would go beyond 50%.
Click to expand...
Agree. 40-50 percent max across several different commidities. I spread out gold silver gas oil and copper
 
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