According to the Bank of Canada, this recession will be over in our lifetime for those under 20 years old. Just kidding! The Bank is projecting an end to the recession in CANADA before the end of 2009 followed by a robust 3.8% growth in 2010. Don't sell those Canadian bank and commodity stocks!
Recession Over
- Thread starter Rockslinger
- Start date
The recession is over when we the economy stops shrinking - (no negative growth (oxymoron)). That doesn't mean we get back to where we were.
I think the Dr. is on the right track - 2011 at the earliest
I think the Dr. is on the right track - 2011 at the earliest
Every 7 or 8 years the economy crashes and usually takes about the same length of time to come back and go beyond the previous highs before crashing again. The only trick is guessing the bottom so you can maximize your returns and decide which stocks are worthy of the come back. This trend has been true for the last 100 years.
The other part of that is guessing when the next recession will hit, after an economic boom, then moving everything into more conservative investments.Radio_Shack said:
Btw... I invested some more money when the indexes were around the 8000 mark - pretty close to the bottom, IMO.
The growth number is misleading. Its inflated because it is coming in the heels of a year that is likely to be negative. Take the two year average of '09 and '10, and the number is still pretty depressing.Rockslinger said:
Seriously though, growth figures are very misleading. When someone tells you to expect the economy to "grow" in the next few years, think again. Right now the indexes are below 9000. They will have to hit in the neighbourhood of 14,000 to 15,000 just to get back to where we were. If it takes five years or whatever to do it, it will be the same as if the markets had been flat all that time. E.g. NO growth!!! Pretty damn depressing...
If the past is any indication, the banks always surpass their all time highs. Does that mean CIBC will be north of $100 again. Stay tuned.poonhunter said:
There was even a story in the FT about how many of the money centre banks don't even really KNOW how to operate as a proper bank anymore, so long have they simply been 'processing' loans just long enough to package them into capital market product. They actually don't have sufficient staff to properly evaluate credit apps for character, collateral, volume for any given economic climate, etc. They used 'unnamed sources' in the story but that would be a bit funny if true.
I still think that the government can successfully recap the banks if they set their mind to it, no matter what the cost. And if that happens, then the recovery has a chance to gain some traction.
Wilber Ross , the guy that made a killling buying up defunct steel mills then unloading them during the boom, has a really interesting plan for extending credit to homeowners whose mortgages exceed the value of their homes. The gov. would reduce the balance on the loan and the interest rate to reflect the current low long-term rates, and would gain an 'option' on the house that would permit the gov. to recoup some of the appreciation in the homes into the future once the house is sold....I hope the gov. does some of that innovative stuff.
I still think that the government can successfully recap the banks if they set their mind to it, no matter what the cost. And if that happens, then the recovery has a chance to gain some traction.
Wilber Ross , the guy that made a killling buying up defunct steel mills then unloading them during the boom, has a really interesting plan for extending credit to homeowners whose mortgages exceed the value of their homes. The gov. would reduce the balance on the loan and the interest rate to reflect the current low long-term rates, and would gain an 'option' on the house that would permit the gov. to recoup some of the appreciation in the homes into the future once the house is sold....I hope the gov. does some of that innovative stuff.
Rockslinger said:
True..the price of gold made new all time highs last year...30 years later...Not sure about others here but I be an old man in 30 years
Here are 3 stupid things that banks do:FOOTSNIFFER said:
1) Outsource credit risk analysis to debt rating agencies.
2) Hedge risk with counterparties that are capital challenged,
3) Excessive focus on cutting costs by saving on paper clips.
The one U.S. bank that concentrated on its knittings is Wells Fargo, not very exciting but smart. I think another bank that is smart is Bank of New York (but I think it is now caught up in the State Street mess).
You'll be too old to lug all that gold around. Plus, be careful with that hernia.S.C. Joe said:True..the price of gold made new all time highs last year...30 years later...Not sure about others here but I be an old man in 30 years
When CAN and US realize that outsourcing to these countries was a bad idea, we'll be fine.Gyaos said:When China and India is out of work, we'll be fine.
Gyaos.
NO. NOT TRUE. North Americans will buy anything at any price so long as they have the money to do it. Corporate communism with George W. Bush Jr., accelerated the China and India effect by giving them all the jobs that required massive amounts of study and investment to do. OUR JOBS! In return turned those North Americans with that training with no tech jobs to unregulated Wall Street. The remaining manufacturing jobs became service oriented. When more and more (in America) lost their health insurance, the industry raised rates astronomically on the remaining to keep up with corporate Wall Street shareholder profits.Spiker said:
So when everyone had low paying jobs to pay for semi-low cost items made in China and India with a weak dollar policy and slave communist wages with no health insurance or unemployment insurance, the economy eventually collapsed, commodities surged, corporate CEO's collected their bonuses, the "secondary jobs, emergency manufacturing jobs" were all in China and India, so no one could get work quick, the government bails out the banking industry and then issues more corporate bonuses before the Obama switchover. And how did people want to buy things with no money? The issuance of George W. Bush Jr. easy credit.
It has not bottomed yet. Not even close.
Gyaos Baltar.
