real estate..... is it true??

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Smallcock

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oldjones

oldjones

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Butler1000 said:
For those who don't think severing is easy they have severed now 5 properties with a 2 minute walk of my house. Lot sizes are about 40-50 ft wide and about 120-130 deep.

These are fully detached being squeezed onto 20-25 foot wide lots.

His can easily be split. The city is encouraging it to increase density and the property tax base.
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Fully reno-ed semi-detached, on a 25x120 ft lot (with parking, but no garage) across from me, just sold for $2.2 million. There are no absolutes in house or lot sizes; the only thing that matters is where it is.
 
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wonkyknee said:
By the way the true crusher of a real estate bubble? A recession!.... In 2030 Germany expects to have no more gasoline powered engines. That's only 13 years away. That means the 10 Billion dollar EV plant in Germany dwarfing Teslas 3 billion dollar plant already being built means Bad News for oil demand. In China the waiting period for a gasoline powered vehicle is months, but they can buy an electric car same day. Last time I checked, Canada was a Petro nation. All of this will be much clearer in 6-12 months. Did I buy a rental property this year. Nah, lithium mining stocks already made 5 times!!! Yeah we'll sell to more foreign buyers when we have a 65 cent dollar again next year, but locals own the lion share of property in Toronto. Not so good in a recession.
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According to Urbanation 50% of sales of new condos in Q3 were made by domestic investors (yes, investors, not speculators). These are people that intend to hold and rent the property. Buying a new condo unit to flip for gains ended at least 5 years ago since there is no money in doing that anymore. The money is in taking advantage of low vacancy rates over the long term.

How are many people doing this? By taking equity out of their primary residence. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/foreign-buyers-tax-toronto-real-estate-investors-1.3824467

Foreign investment in Toronto has had little impact thus far. In fact we should encourage much more of it.

If the above holds, I think Toronto is in ok shape with no bubble effect on the horizon (e.g. crash). We might eventually plateau for years until salaries catch up. The question is what happens when all the construction stops. Will that ultimately cause a recession? We have a few more years in the tank before that happens.
 
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oldjones said:
Fully reno-ed semi-detached, on a 25x120 ft lot (with parking, but no garage) across from me, just sold for $2.2 million. There are no absolutes in house or lot sizes; the only thing that matters is where it is.
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Yeah location is everything.

A 25 foot wide lot is huge for a semi. Many detached houses in the city are that wide.
 
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GaryLi

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Smallcock said:
It's starting...

Toronto-Dominion Bank raising rates, variable rate mortgage customers to face increased costs

http://business.financialpost.com/p...riable-rate-customers-to-face-increased-costs
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Payments stay the same, its just the ratio of interest to principal payment gets higher. Still much lower than fixed. But for people renewing yep its gonna hurt a bit. Take a look at the CBC article on this and in the comments section everyone is mad at this 15 basis point increase which really lets you know how leveraged people are. Some folks there are so leveraged a 1% increase in their rate would put them on the streets.

For some reason there have been a larger than normal amount of homes for sale in my area in October of all months. Usually during September and May are months with the most listings but October took the cake this year by far. Open house signs are everywhere you drive, you cannot escape them.
 
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Could the reason be a rush to buy before the new mortgage rules came into effect, and the unusually warm October we had? You're right that people shouldn't be crying over such a small increase. Not a good sign.

Anybody have $19 million to spend on a house in Vancouver? It needs a little TLC. Just a little.
https://vimeo.com/151753760

An entire blog dedicated to the phenom with tons of pictures:
http://beautifulemptyhomes.tumblr.com/

A report on Vancouver found that 1 out of 10 condo units sits empty.

I think it's safe to say that Toronto is in way better shape.
 
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GaryLi

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There have been reports of realtors encouraging first time buyers to buy before the new rules came into place. I would say the sudden supply is from people who think the game is up or over soon and are looking to cash out.
 
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GaryLi

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Well Wynne said shes not going to do a foreign buyer tax. Because of this I think we will be seeing 30%+ year over year increases in the near future due to foreigners like the triad laundering money and Americans escaping Trump coming here. Basically the new Vancouver. Politicians always say one thing and do the other so I won't be surprised if she too imposes it suddenly after a few months like they did in BC.
 
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wonkyknee

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Still can't understand why Canadians/Torontonians get excited about home prices becoming more and more unaffordable to themselves and their children?? First time homebuyers can't afford, and it becomes difficult to buy up as well. Not to mention your property taxes are tied to market values so along with seniors on a fixed income regular working class people get further stresses with living costs. It's bizarre. If you plan on selling and moving down the market soon then I understand.
 
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GaryLi

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Property tax does not work like that. There is a government budget for how much tax they want to collect then they tell you your share based on weight averaging your homes value to all home values added together. If your homes value increases more than other areas then yes you will pay more tax but if it does not you either pay the same or less.

Well they are excited because their home probably makes up a majority of their retirement equity. Not all homeowners are fond of today's youth, most are just starting to care and realizing their kids will never own a home or even a condo. Not a lot of them think this far ahead. Maybe they haven't reached the age yet where for some reason they just really really want grandkids.

Their kids stay at home well past graduating from university. They cant afford to buy near their workplace so they buy cars and contribute to congestion. Single family homes with 3+ cars are now common. Rush hour is now 5:30 to 9:00 on most days.

Now the kids with no home to raise families will either leave Toronto or Canada as a whole and contribute to the population growth problem, forcing governments to rely more and more on immigration which keeps wages stagnant.

Ontario's finance minister is turning out to be a doofus. The federal mandate is to cool housing markets and this guy suggests we subsidize it.

Everywhere I read allusions to New York City, that Toronto is the next NYC. Have these people ever been to NYC where a shack is 3000 a month? Just why do they want an NYC here when you could fly there for $100 in 2 hours? Greed.
 
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wonkyknee said:
Still can't understand why Canadians/Torontonians get excited about home prices becoming more and more unaffordable to themselves and their children?? First time homebuyers can't afford, and it becomes difficult to buy up as well. Not to mention your property taxes are tied to market values so along with seniors on a fixed income regular working class people get further stresses with living costs. It's bizarre. If you plan on selling and moving down the market soon then I understand.
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There will come a time when the greatest generational transfer of wealth ever seen in world history begins, and it's when baby boomers start dying off and leaving their estate to their kids.

Mind you, plenty of boomers are helping their kids get into the market right now using the equity they have in the homes they bought decades ago. This is a big driver in the current real estate market. I wish somebody would have helped me buy when I did.
 
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More boring news: another record month in November.

https://www.thestar.com/business/20...p-23-per-cent-in-november-over-last-year.html

Supply is way down, sales way up. No evidence of much speculation or foreign buyers in the Toronto market. The only thing that can take down the Toronto market is a massive loss of jobs or high interest rates (the latter won't happen). Otherwise, people will stay in their homes and slowly pay off their massive debt over the next 25 - 30 years.

If you look at the bottom graph on this page http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/housing_charts/index.htm you'll notice that houses are still much more affordable in Toronto today than they were in 1989 (the year the last bubble burst). And the run up to the 1989 bubble was only 3 years. The steady run up to current real estate prices has been going on since 1999 or 17 years. To get to the same affordability levels seen in 1989, it'll probably take at least 5 more years. This bodes well for housing and for further price increases in 2017.
 
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