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onthebottom

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Service Sector Expands, Factories Hum

By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON - America's service sector expanded with gusto and the country's factories saw orders shoot up by the largest amount in nearly a year, fresh evidence the economy was pushing ahead at a good clip into the spring.

The Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday that its index of service-sector activity stood at 63 in April, up from a reading of 60.5 in March. A reading of 50 and above points to a growing service sector, while a figure below 50 signals contraction. April's showing was better than analysts expected; they were forecasting a reading of 59.2.

"Services industries kicked off the second quarter with very impressive momentum," said Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight.

Fourteen of the 17 service sectors that the institute's index measures showed increased activity in April.

In a second report, the Commerce Department said that new bookings placed with manufacturers jumped by 4.2 percent in March, a notable pickup from the 0.4 percent increase registered in February.

The 4.2 percent gain was the best showing since May 2005, when factory orders rose by the same amount. The performance was far better than the 1.5 percent rise economists were forecasting.

The latest snapshot of factory activity showed that the strength seen in March was fairly broad-based. Orders rose for a wide variety of "durable" goods, including commercial aircraft, machinery, metals, cars and computers. Demand also picked up for "nondurables," including food products and apparel.

"This robust report suggests that the vigorous pace of factory activity ... may not moderate significantly in the near term," said Michelle Girard, an analyst at RBS Greenwich Capital.

Orders placed for all durable goods — costly manufactured products expected to last at least three years — went up by 6.5 percent in March. That was up from 3.5 percent in February and was the largest increase since May 2005.

New bookings for all nondurable items increased by 1.5 percent in March, a turnaround from the 3.1 percent drop reported for February.

Wednesday's factory report comes on the heels of other data showing factories were humming heading into the spring.

The Institute for Supply Management reported Monday that manufacturing activity grew briskly in April. The group's manufacturing index jumped to 57.3 in April, from 55.2 in March, the strongest showing in six months.

So far, the economy is carrying strong momentum despite rising energy prices and interest rates.

For the first quarter, the economy grew at a 4.8 percent pace, the fastest in 2 1/2 years, the government reported last week. A big pickup in consumer spending figured prominently in the strong showing.

In the current April-to-June quarter, economic growth is expected to slow to the 3 percent range, which would still be healthy, as consumers moderate their spending.

With oil and gasoline prices surging, some economists fret that inflation could flare up. And some recent inflation readings have suggested as much.

To thwart inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to boost a key interest rate to 5 percent at its meeting next Wednesday.

After May, many economists believe the Fed will move to the sidelines for a while to assess how its rate increases are affecting economic activity. Others, however, predict the Fed will be forced to push up its key rate to 5.50 percent in the months ahead to prevent inflation from taking off.

:D

OTB
 

TOVisitor

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Hmmm. What's this?

BOT permits himself to cut & paste and yet he excoriates others for doing so.

Perhaps IOKIYAR should be modified to IOKIBDI (It's OK if BOT does it.)
 

onthebottom

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TOVisitor said:
Hmmm. What's this?

BOT permits himself to cut & paste and yet he excoriates others for doing so.

Perhaps IOKIYAR should be modified to IOKIBDI (It's OK if BOT does it.)
It's not all I do, that's the difference. You copy / past propaganda from sites and call people names. I've never NEVER seen you calmly reason out a point or be anything but blindly partisan.

But it is an awesome economy.

OTB
 

onthebottom

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Looks like tax reciepts are telling the same story:

Tax Receipts Exceed Treasury Predictions
Early Surge Lowers Deficit Projections

By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 5, 2005; Page E01

After three years of rising federal budget deficits, a surge of April tax receipts brought unexpected good news to fiscal policymakers -- the tide of government red ink appears to be receding.

The Treasury Department this week reported there would be a $54 billion swing from projected deficit to surplus in the April-to-June quarter, after an unanticipated gush of tax payments poured into the Treasury before the April 15 deadline. That prompted private forecasters to lower their deficit projections for the fiscal year that ends in September.

Budget analysts inside and outside the government said the positive turn is likely to be short-lived. Indeed, after a four-year absence, the Treasury Department announced yesterday it is considering reissuing its 30-year Treasury bond to help finance long-term government debt, jolting the bond markets and pushing down the price of existing 30-year securities.

But in the short term, many forecasters said the budget deficit appears to have crested.

"I think it has turned the corner," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency. "My guess is 2004 will have been the worst year."

For that fiscal year, the government recorded a $412 billion deficit, the largest ever in nominal dollar terms, although not as large as some of the deficits of the 1980s when measured against the size of the economy. The 2004 mark was up from 2003's $378 billion deficit, which topped 2002's $158 billion deficit.

In January, Bush administration officials projected that the streak would continue, with a deficit of $427 billion for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30. But that estimate was widely regarded as inflated and many forecasters believed the total would be more like $400 billion.

April, however, turned out to be a far better month than anticipated. Taxpayers were confronted with unexpected tax bills, many from capital gains and the alternative minimum tax, a parallel income tax system designed to hit the rich but that is increasingly pinching the middle class. The Treasury announced this week that it will repay $42 billion in federal debt in the third April-to-June quarter, instead of borrowing $12 billion.

Wall Street analysts reduced their deficit forecasts this week, from around $400 billion to around $370 billion. In nominal dollar terms, that would still be the third-highest deficit on record. Even measured against the size of the economy, "it's still a high number," said Brian Bethune, director of financial economics at Global Insight Inc., a Massachusetts forecasting firm. "It needs to come down."

........

The link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/04/AR2005050402134.html
 

maxweber

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you're kidding, right?:

onthebottom said:
It's not all I do, that's the difference. You copy / past propaganda from sites and call people names. I've never NEVER seen you calmly reason out a point or be anything but blindly partisan.
Pot.. kettle.. black..

MW
 

Anbarandy

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Good positive posts onthebottom. There appears to be so much negativity and mudslinging by some posters that it just overwhelms those who wish to contribute in an objective and positive manner. Your posts shine brightly throughout this dark culture of negativity. We should all promote the positive and dismiss the negative.
 

TOVisitor

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Anbarandy said:
Good positive posts onthebottom. There appears to be so much negativity and mudslinging by some posters that it just overwhelms those who wish to contribute in an objective and positive manner. Your posts shine brightly throughout this dark culture of negativity. We should all promote the positive and dismiss the negative.
Yup. And I believe in the tooth fairy too.
 

maxweber

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Sanity Clause

Anbarandy said:
We should all promote the positive and dismiss the negative.
A most revealing statement. The verb yoiu choose is "dismiss the negative"--not "refute," not "deal with," much less "solve"--but "dismiss".. these ten words sum up Reagan's presidency only too well.

MW
 

onthebottom

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maxweber said:
Pot.. kettle.. black..

MW
No I'm not. Both of these are referencing facts, not some opinion piece.

OTB
 

onthebottom

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james t kirk said:
4 words

Nine Trillion Dollar Debt.
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html

We rank 35th in debt, 66% of GDP (which is the only reasonable way to look at it), not small but lower than Germany, Italy, France, Japan..... I don't know what Canada's current situation is but it used to be about 70%, but I think you've brought that down by growing the economy (denominator) and paying of the debt (numerator).

What this means is that our debt is similar to or lower that our peer group (if the US has a peer group, which I could argue we don't).

If you want it in 4 words I'd offer:

Twelve Trillion Dollar Economy

OTB
 

maxweber

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pot kettle BLACK!!

onthebottom said:
No I'm not. Both of these are referencing facts, not some opinion piece.

OTB
LOL! You've got a sense of humour, I'll say that for you.

MW
 

onthebottom

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maxweber said:
LOL! You've got a sense of humour, I'll say that for you.

MW
Would you have me use statistics to show the US economy growing without referencing them?

Geesh.

OTB
 

opieshuffle

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Oct 30, 2004
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Statistics...

...just because I have nothing of value to add:

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable.
~ Laurence Peter

There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

You gotta take what you read, when people are spewing numbers, with a grain of salt.

Op
 

james t kirk

Well-known member
Aug 17, 2001
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onthebottom said:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html

We rank 35th in debt, 66% of GDP (which is the only reasonable way to look at it), not small but lower than Germany, Italy, France, Japan..... I don't know what Canada's current situation is but it used to be about 70%, but I think you've brought that down by growing the economy (denominator) and paying of the debt (numerator).

What this means is that our debt is similar to or lower that our peer group (if the US has a peer group, which I could argue we don't).

If you want it in 4 words I'd offer:

Twelve Trillion Dollar EconomyOTB

Canada is about 40% of GDP and dropping every day.

Whatever the US economy is is pointless because bottom line, your imbecilic (is that a word?) government keeps spending more than it earns year after year after year.

Simply put, this type of imbecilic behavior can not continue forever. The chickens are on their way back home right now.

And you know it.
 

onthebottom

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james t kirk said:
Canada is about 40% of GDP and dropping every day.

Whatever the US economy is is pointless because bottom line, your imbecilic (is that a word?) government keeps spending more than it earns year after year after year.

Simply put, this type of imbecilic behavior can not continue forever. The chickens are on their way back home right now.

And you know it.
Not even close to true but I won't waste my time, you've made up your mind.

OTB
 

Meister

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What the US has got going for them and imo the only thing that can save them from an Italian style financial chaos is military power. They should stop being wusses and after invading Iraq actually get some benefit from it. Get some control over the oil, secure new markets, push some American products onto countries that get our military help. If you want to be a bully at least be a bully with benefits or else you are just wasting taxpayers money.

Instead the Americans buy the gas on the open market at market prices bring it into Iraq and sell it to the Iraqi public for pennies. Guess who is picking up the difference.
 

someone

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james t kirk said:
Canada is about 40% of GDP and dropping every day.

Whatever the US economy is is pointless because bottom line, your imbecilic (is that a word?) government keeps spending more than it earns year after year after year.

Simply put, this type of imbecilic behavior can not continue forever. The chickens are on their way back home right now.

And you know it.
To be exact it was 38.3% in the 2004-2005 fiscal year and the goal of reducing it to 25% has just been advanced again (this time from 2014-2015 to 2013-2015.

http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget06/bp/bpc3ae.htm#debtman

Comparing with Canadian and American numbers is not straight forward. For example, Americans don’t include future social security liabilities in their numbers (making their problem more serious then it seems). In addition, more U.S. debt is either directly in foreign hands or is indirectly in foreign hands by crowding out domestic financing of private debt..
 

onthebottom

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Mixed Employment Data

To be fair, there was some mixed (and disappointing) employment data today:

snip...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers added 138,000 jobs in April, far fewer than had been anticipated, while annual wages rose at the strongest rate in more than 4-1/2 years, a Labor Department report on Friday showed.

snip...

The unemployment rate was unchanged from March at 4.7 percent

snip....

Average hourly earnings rose 3.8 percent in the 12 months through April -- the stiffest year-over-year rise since a matching 3.8 percent pickup in August 2001.

That, together with the fact that hourly earnings in the month climbed 0.5 percent to $16.61, is likely to fan concerns about risks of wage-induced inflation.

The rest here: http://today.reuters.com/business/n...922_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ECONOMY-JOBS-DC.XML

OTB
 

TOVisitor

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someone said:
To be exact it was 38.3% in the 2004-2005 fiscal year and the goal of reducing it to 25% has just been advanced again (this time from 2014-2015 to 2013-2015.

http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget06/bp/bpc3ae.htm#debtman

Comparing with Canadian and American numbers is not straight forward. For example, Americans don’t include future social security liabilities in their numbers (making their problem more serious then it seems). In addition, more U.S. debt is either directly in foreign hands or is indirectly in foreign hands by crowding out domestic financing of private debt..
Shall we add to your reflections:

a) The 4.7% unemployment rate that OTB keeps citing has been questioned by the Federal Reserve as being as much as 3% too low because of people dropping out of the workforce because jobs don't exist

b) The Shrub's job creation rate is the worst in 40 years

c) The percent of people living in poverty has increased since the Shrub became President

d) The savings rate has dropped since he became President

But, in his inimitable fashion, OTB's cited stats confirm the Rethuglicans' attitude of "I've got mine -- screw everyone else."
 
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