Polling has changed….

[WyattEarp]

As @Frankfooter said, the Conservatives own the Canadian media. It's notable that on a recent CTV News show, they pointed out a poll conducted on March 29 by Innovative Research, which showed the Conservatives in a tight lead, 38-37. Innovative research is a B- pollster.

338Canada | Innovative Research federal poll, March 2025

338canada.com

But let's look at all recent polls, which show the Liberals in the lead in almost all of them. The Conservative media refuses to say a Liberal majority.

Canada polls | 338Canada

338canada.com

I'm not sure what makes an A-rated poster versus a B-rated poster in Canada. In the U.S. the most accurate pollsters generally aren't the major polling outfits. Analysts here have noted a grouping effect where major polls don't want to be outliers so they design their polls to conform with the (polling) crowd.

In other words, major polls in the U.S. have trouble picking up underlying currents.

 

[WyattEarp]

I love your droll sense of humour, Earp.

Mandy, you do realize posting laughing emojis incessantly is a form of rhetorical weakness?

We're not too far from the days when you were running around TERB liking all of Frank's comments.

 

[WyattEarp]

I have no doubts that the CPC will win the election. Its just a matter of whether its a majority or a minority.

I think most people would say that if the Conservatives don't control the government it will be deemed an electoral loss.

 

[Butler1000]

I have no doubts that the CPC will win the election. Its just a matter of whether its a majority or a minority.

There is a big number. A full 50% in polling are saying Carney is their first choice for PM.

 

[mandrill]

Mandy, you do realize posting laughing emojis incessantly is a form of rhetorical weakness?

We're not too far from the days when you were running around TERB liking all of Frank's comments.

Okay, Earp. Let me do this the long way.

The election is a contest of personalities between Carney and Pee. There are no real policy issues being debated. Pee is already 20% behind Carney in the selection polling for "preferred PM". He loses 1 or 2 more points every week. The separation between the LPC and CPC is widening slightly, not closing.

Now, Pee has been establishing his political image / persona for several years. WYSIWYG. He has a track record as an aggressive guy who uses slogans and who votes against women's issues and social safety net initiatives.

He needs to become more "Carney-like" to close the 20% gap between himself and Carney. It's almost impossible for him to do this in 3 weeks because his persona is already established in the popular mind over the previous 3 years. Any attempt to emulate C is either not going to get press coverage, or is going to be dismissed as "phony".

So Pee cannot make up the ground.

1 of 2 things can turn this around. "Carney tedium" can set in and folks will get bored. Unlikely given the short space of time. What would likely result is that folks would simply switch channels from election coverage to sports, etc and vote LPC anyway.

Or - #2 - Carney can be hit with a terrible scandal. This is unlikely because the foreign-owned, rightie traitor-press like the Sun and the Nat Post has been digging and their efforts have been puny.

So we have a boring, predictable election campaign culminating in the destruction of Pee's career and the CPC - the latter will bounce back of course in 5 or 10 years. The former is dead meat.

Now you owe me back 5 minutes of my life for making me write this out and spurning my laughing cat emojis.

 

[WyattEarp]

Okay, Earp. Let me do this the long way.

The election is a contest of personalities between Carney and Pee. There are no real policy issues being debated. Pee is already 20% behind Carney in the selection pollling for "preferred PM". He loses 1 or 2 more points every week. The separation between the LPC and CPC is widening slightly, not closing.

Now, Pee has been establishing his political image / persona for several years. WYSIWYG. He has a track record as an aggressive guy who uses slogans and who votes against women's issues and social safety net initiatives.

He needs to become more "Carney-like" to close the 20% gap between himself and Carney. It's almost impossible for him to do this in 3 weeks because his persona is already established in the popular mind over the previous 3 years. Any attempt to emulate C is either not going to get press coverage, or is going to be dismissed as "phony".

So Pee cannot make up the ground.

1 of 2 things can turn this around. "Carney tedium" can set in and folks will get bored. Unlikely given the short space of time. What would likely result is that folks would simply switch channels from election coverage to sports, etc and vote LPC anyway.

Or - #2 - Carney can be hit with a terrible scandal. This is unlikely because the foreign-owned, rightie traitor-press like the Sun and the Nat Post has been digging and their efforts have been puny.

So we have a boring, predictable election campaign culminating in the destruction of Pee's career and the CPC - the latter will bounce back of course in 5 or 10 years. The former is dead meat.

Now you owe me back 5 minutes of my life for making me write this out and spurning my laughing cat emojis.

As far as I can tell, Carney is basically a technocrat. That's not meant as a criticism just an honest observation. He comes to the party with a relatively blank slate. This is his first true campaign. You in fact said "The election is a contest of personalities between Carney and Pee. There are no real policy issues being debated."

The Trump Tariffs could not have come at a better time for Carney and the Liberals. Instead of having to defend their last ten years in power, they can put Carney out there who can represent a somewhat new, reinvented Liberal party. Carney can also campaign as the leader to stand up to Trump.

Is there anything fundamentally wrong with this assessment?

 

[mandrill]

As far as I can tell, Carney is basically a technocrat. That's not meant as a criticism just an honest observation. He comes to the party with a relatively blank slate. This is his first true campaign. You in fact said "The election is a contest of personalities between Carney and Pee. There are no real policy issues being debated."

The Trump Tariffs could not have come at a better time for Carney and the Liberals. Instead of having to defend their last ten years in power, they can put Carney out there who can represent a somewhat new, reinvented Liberal party. Carney can also campaign as the leader to stand up to Trump.

Is there anything fundamentally wrong with this assessment?

That's exactly my assessment as well.

But it's a very successful strategy and the Trump buffoonery is enormously helpful with a Trump-aligned adversary like Pee.

So how is this going to change in the next 3 weeks?

 

[WyattEarp]

That's exactly my assessment as well.

But it's a very successful strategy and the Trump buffoonery is enormously helpful with a Trump-aligned adversary like Pee.

So how is this going to change in the next 3 weeks?

I didn't say it would change, but given tumultuous events I would not think it will be a genteel month in Canadian politics. The snapback in the polls might underlie a volatile electorate. So one would think Poilievre is going to press Carney on specifics.

I can't see how anyone other than hardcore Liberals would not want to have Carney explain his platform versus Poilievre and the Conservatives. I don't think it's naive to believe that Carney would run the country very differently and many Canadians want to hear how.

 

[Valcazar]

As far as I can tell, Carney is basically a technocrat. That's not meant as a criticism just an honest observation. He comes to the party with a relatively blank slate. This is his first true campaign. You in fact said "The election is a contest of personalities between Carney and Pee. There are no real policy issues being debated."

The Trump Tariffs could not have come at a better time for Carney and the Liberals. Instead of having to defend their last ten years in power, they can put Carney out there who can represent a somewhat new, reinvented Liberal party. Carney can also campaign as the leader to stand up to Trump.

Is there anything fundamentally wrong with this assessment?

No.
I am sure Trudeau is kicking himself for resigning when he did, because he probably believes he could have won thanks to Trump if the timing had been different.
(I am skeptical, since I think the Trudeau-fatigue was a lot stronger than the Liberal-fatigue.)

Carney got lucky with the timing.

 

[squeezer]

I posted here a few times last year long before the election that the U.S. would be in recession in 2025. That's what happens when the Fed raises rates and we have an inverted yield curve (high short-term rates) for a substantial period of time. The global economy has also been slowing down for quite awhile now. (Incidentally, this is a factor in driving higher U.S. trade deficits. Countries import less in their own recessions. Some like China look to export even more.)

Having said that, would anyone really be surprised that I was accumulating cash for over a year. In any event, I take a long-term view of markets. I don't even follow CNBC or Fox Business on a daily basis. It can be a distraction to long-term investing.

The downturn which was inevitable at this point in the cycle is an opportunity to put cash to work in the market later in the year.

Thanks for asking about my portfolio's well-being.

DO NOT tell me you honestly believe if Kamala had won, the US would be heading like a derailed train into a recession. Any recession brought on is man-made or should we say Trumputin Made as the experts were warning if he were to be elected.

If someone says anything else, they are COMPLETELY FULL OF SHIT

 

[WyattEarp]

DO NOT tell me you honestly believe if Kamala had won, the US would be heading like a derailed train into a recession. Any recession brought on is man-made or should we say Trumputin Made as the experts were warning if he were to be elected.

If someone says anything else, they are COMPLETELY FULL OF SHIT

Do you really want me to re-post my words here from back in mid-2024 about the impending U.S. recession? I think some might have been when Kamala was ahead in the polls.

Now do you think I would be bitching about a Kamala-induced recession? No, because I am very cognizant of my past posts and don't sling different shit depending on the political winds.

Some of you seem to forget that social media is a living archive.

 

[bver_hunter]

Backtrack on policies? Is the color of the jersey the only thing thing that matters to you?

By the way, that's easier said than done for Carney and the Liberals to create a whole new look. I think politics in Canada are going to get very heated in the next three weeks.

Who stated that the "colours of the Jersey" are the only things that matter to me?

Read the link first that I posted and then comment!!

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

They have simply replaced their HATE for Trudeau with HATE for Carney without missing a beat.

Its more like love for Trump.
They support anyone they see as an extension of or adjacent to the orange clown.

 

[squeezer]

Do you really want me to re-post my words here from back in mid-2024 about the impending U.S. recession? I think some might have been when Kamala was ahead in the polls.

Now do you think I would be bitching about a Kamala-induced recession? No, because I am very cognizant of my past posts and don't sling different shit depending on the political winds.

Some of you seem to forget that social media is a living archive.

Your words are your opinion, nothing else. The US was not heading for a recession and if Kamala had won, your 401 (k) wouldn't be in the mess it is in now. The US wouldn't be in a state of tatters among allies as it is now. The price of coffee wouldn't be going up in the US 30 to 45% because a dumbass POS POTUS put a 25% plus Tariff on countries the US imports coffee from. You would think Trumputin and his clowns would know the US doesn't exactly produce enough coffee beans. Just a small example. How about the price of a car going up 15k, which would have been happening under Kamala? I hope you do not want to buy a Jag, they've announced halting shipments to the US.

Once again, even in the face of one man possibly crippling your economy you are going to try and pretzel it into spouting off it would have been the same under the Dems. WOW LMFAO

 

[lomotil]

If Carney wins, think of this old joke:

A man started to climb a high, steep mountain when a snake asked the man to carry him along. “But you’re a snake,” the man said. The snake smiled. “Don’t worry. I won’t bite you.” After days of arduous climbing, the man reached the mountain summit, whereupon the poisonous snake bit him. As he lay dying, the man cried out, “You said you wouldn’t bite me!” His reptilian hitchhiker looked at him and said, “Ha! You knew I was a snake when you picked me up.”

Naive post from you here, since virtual all politicos, and certainly those at the top, the leaders put themselves first, then the party and last the electorate. Same as it ever was, same as it also shall be.
And so Trump endorses Carney.

Biden won, and Harris didn't. Big difference.

Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, 2025, two weeks before Trump's second inauguration. The two had private conversations at Mar-a-Lago between Trump's re-election and Trudeau's resignation. Do the math.

Like Trump, Justin is not a 'self made man', unless you're referring to Justin's sex life since his wife left him. He could have lived very comfortably on a drama teacher's salary and his trust fund.

Trump is obviously a co-factor in Justin Trudeau’s resignation, but not the major factor. Chrystia Freeland‘s resignation, mounting Canadian economic turmoil, and internal LPC internal pressure are the main factors for Trudeau’s decision to resign.
You need to do your math again!
Also, I don’t what Trudeau’s sex life after his left him is, or why does it matter. Pierre Trudeau said that the government has no business in the nation’s bedrooms. Are you in the know about Justin Trudeau ?

 

[bver_hunter]

The Liberal lead over the Conservatives is now 12% according to the latest IPSOS Poll:

Liberals widen lead to double digits over Tories in Canada election: poll

Liberals widen lead to double digits over Tories in Canada election: poll - National | Globalnews.ca

The Liberals now lead the Conservatives by 12 points as the federal election campaign enters its third week, according to an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News.

globalnews.ca

 

[bver_hunter]

I think most people would say that if the Conservatives don't control the government it will be deemed an electoral loss.

Your thoughts do not match that of the majority of Canadians!!
Most think that Carney is the preferable PM to stand up to Trump!!