In 2019 he only won the riding by about 8 points. In 2021 he extended that to a 15.5% winning margin. Given that he is now the leader of the CPC I doubt he loses that much of a lead.
Doubt he will lose his own riding.
I am generally distrustful of polls.
So I imagine there is a chance he may still be in the lead despite what the polls tell you.