Pandemic

[fuji]

Fuji stick to the known facts please. Swine flu is less deadly than seasonal flu. End of story.

Look, moron, I am using the numbers YOU yourself sourced. It is killing 0.2% which is slightly more than seasonal flu. Stop being such a dunce.

1 in 4 will catch this ?

It depends on what happens, doesn't it? But yes, that is what "pandemic" means, it means a very large fraction of the population is going to catch it, unless something is done to contain it.

Having a vaccine, for example, might avoid that outcome.

Worldwide there have only been 30,000 reported cases - only another 2 billion according to that fraction. Think we will reach the 2 billion by September ?

A month ago there were 5251 cases. How many do you figure there will be in another month?

I don't think it will reach 2 billion by September, flu season kicks in in the fall and winter. That is when it will pick up speed again. For whatever reason influenza spreads more slowly in summer months.

Do you even think the data to date is even statistically significant. No one has the slightest idea how many actual cases there have been because most are like catching a cold.

The data are the known facts. What are you basing your opinion on, if not on the known facts?

How many people get seasonal flu ?

Around 30 million outpatient visits per year in the US, but it varies widely from one year to the next based on how much immunity people have to the currently circulating strains.

The kill rate for ordinary influenza ranges from 0.1% to 0.2% in various years, so from half as lethal as H1N1 to about the same. Note though that H1N1 has tended to kill healthy people whereas seasonal flu primarily kills people who already have health issues.

Since few people have any immunity to H1N1 it has the potential to infect many, many more people than seasonal flu.

One reasonable outcome is that the infection rate actually approaches 100% of the population, with many of those cases being undetected (mild enough people stay home and don't see a doctor), resulting in something like 25% of the population showing up in the public health system.

Seriously, that is the EXPECTED outcome when you introduce a new disease into a population that has no immunity to it--a 100% infection rate.

Do you remember Avian flu ? Another major WHO pandemic warning.

Yes, and it was successfully contained. This one has not been contained and is not going to be contained. Fortunately it is not killing the high rate of people that one did.

If Avian flu broke out the way H1N1 is out, with a total failure to contain the disease, we would be screwed.

You don't think the WHO warning and resulting mobilization had something to do with the containment of Avian flu???

 

[train]

Look, moron, I am using the numbers YOU yourself sourced. It is killing 0.2% which is slightly more than seasonal flu. Stop being such a dunce.

Wrong it's killing 0.2% of confirmed cases to date. What is more relevant is how does this compare to seasonal flu. That is a very imperfect assesment of risk for the general population because the denominater is flawed.

It depends on what happens, doesn't it? But yes, that is what "pandemic" means, it means a very large fraction of the population is going to catch it, unless something is done to contain it.

Wrong again look at what the WHO definition of pandemic is. Geez at least get a basic understanding of the definition. The WHO declared a pandemic with 30,000 cases which because you are so fond of this , represents 0.000005 of the world population. You are calling me a moron ?

The kill rate for ordinary influenza ranges from 0.1% to 0.2% in various years, so from half as lethal as H1N1 to about the same.

So how do you explain the 15 deaths per month rate in the US vs the 2,500 per month for seasonal flu. Better check your numbers again. 15/2,500 is .006 BTW or 0.6 % as deadly so far. Isn't it wonderful how you can get fractions to say anything.

Tell you what. I'll bet you $100 that by December 31 there are not 1,000deaths in the US from swine flu or 1/30 D ) that of seasonal flu.

You don't think the WHO warning and resulting mobilization had something to do with the containment of Avian flu???

No, I don't actually.

So using the same criteria we don't have much to worry about from the swine variety either then.

 

[moresex4me]

Boys, behave, you are giving me fractionitis!

Any new disease has the potential to kill us, but we've got millions of years of evolution on our side as well, and no disease wipes out 100% of a population. I think we're populous enough now that the species is safe from disease. Now it's whether the planet shrugs us off like a flea infestation, or some other extinction-level event gets us.

Either way all we can do is keep washing our hands to limit infection. I'm not losing any sleep over this, neither should you.

 

[Berlin]

Swine flu or whatever youwannacallit ...

I for one do not have problem with the WHO telling it like it is. Fear mongering it ain't, Chan's statement is pretty clear.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pandemic_phase6_20090611/en/index.html

The key point is that this shit is new, is already everywhere.

I just hope that this flu will not mutate into something deadlier and our government continues to raise awareness on personal hygiene, as already mentioned in previously posts.

 

[fuji]

Wrong it's killing 0.2% of confirmed cases to date. What is more relevant is how does this compare to seasonal flu.

An 0.2% kill rate is slightly higher than seasonal, which usually kills 0.1%, but with the small number of cases so far we don't have enough data to say it's conclusively more than seasonal. So I have said it is the same or more.

However we do know it kills DIFFERENT people than seasonal flu does. H1N1 kills a lot more healthy young people than seasonal which implies that H1N1 deaths are going to be incremental deaths on top of seasonal deaths.

Wrong again look at what the WHO definition of pandemic is. Geez at least get a basic understanding of the definition.

If I were you I'd be too embarassed to keep on posting. At pandemic level six WHO *anticipates* that a very large fraction of the population could be infected. That does not mean that a very large fraction HAS been. It also does not mean WILL be, because public health intervention could still change the outcome (esp. if a vaccine gets mass produced).

So how do you explain the 15 deaths per month rate in the US vs the 2,500 per month for seasonal flu.

There is no explanation required, other than to point out that you are an innumerate idiot. The number of cases is growing exponentially:


April 24: 854 cases
May 12: 5251 cases.
June 12: 29669 cases.

What do you think the July 12 number is going to look like? If it increases by a similar proportion again then in one month we will have some 165000 cases and 330 deaths, and by August it'll be nearing a million cases with 1500-2000 deaths.

If unstopped it will grow exponentially through the population until the population develops immunity--i.e., by getting sick and recovering. At some point so many people will have developed resistance to the disease that it will no longer spread so easily and it will burn itself out and become a seasonal flu.

Better check your numbers again. 15/2,500 is .006 BTW or 0.6 % as deadly so far. Isn't it wonderful how you can get fractions to say anything.

The 0.2% number is for countries with strong public health systems, like Canada and the United States, where far fewer people have died than in countries like Mexico with weak public health. I posted your higher number up thread, the global number is indeed higher than the Canada/US number.

 

[seth gecko]

Hey FUJI.....

...it's me, your buddy Seth!
Are you arguing over the Internet again?
That's sooo not like you!