You think that will be a surprise? Again, the GG win increases his odds dramatically, and I think he's earned it with this role.
I'll be disappointed if Sophia takes director. She's still cutting her teeth, although she has a fine future ahead of her. I think the academy will reward Jackson for the accomplishment of putting together essentially a 9 hour movie with such detail and planning. Although the actors didn't get the nod, and I didn't think they should either, the feat of putting such a mammoth project together should be recognized.