NFL Week 3 - lets try again....

[healer677]

Early Stardust lines are up -

Carolina -3.5 @ Miami

Cincinnati -3 @ Chicago

Cleveland @ Indy -14 then moved to -13.5

New Orleans @ Minnesota -4.5

Tampa Bay -2.5 @ Green Bay

Tennesse @ StLouis -6.5

Afternoon Games (4pm)

Arizona @ Seattle -6.5

Dallas -6.5 @ San Francisco

New England @ Pittsburgh -3

Evening Game

New York Giants @ San Diego -5.5

MNF

Kansas City @ Denver -2.5

There were no lines available for Atlanta / Buffalo, Jacksonville / Jets and Oakland / Philly at the opener.

 

[healer677]

some early thoughts ...

Carolina at Miami - The Panthers won despite of their QB Delhomme, who threw a pick to Vrable for a td. Stephen Davis did all if not at least, most of the real work. Davis has to keep chugging if Delhomme doesn't straighten up. Carolina's D did a good job on NE's running attack - holding them to only 39 yds rushing. Their special teams on punt and kick off returns did a decent job- 30 and 25 yds avg respectively. Miami couldn't beat a struggling Pennington last weekend. Miami got all of 15 first downs, fumbled the ball 3 times (didnt lose any) and by the grace of God - no picks. I might just pick The Panthers for their D on this - at 3.5 I get the feeling this will go up some.

Bengals at Bears - wow. Never thought I'd say this - I'm looking forward to this game. The Bears showed me some last week, though I do love the Bears to be spread breakers; I didn't think they'd dominate like last week. Against the Lions too (a team favored to make some noise). Orton completed 66% of his passes for 150 yds a td and NO PICKS. The D forced Harrington for 5 picks and 1 was taken to the house. Special teams scored too. The Bears had a 31-6 lead...at half time. Johnson has a big mouth....and can produce the big plays. The Bengals had a 27-0 lead on the Vikings. Their D had 5 picks and kept Minnesota to 77 yds rushing. Cincinnati is favored by a fg for now - I'm liking the Bears at Soldier Field for this - too bad it's not snowing. The Bears are comitted on playing D and running the ball - I can respect that. Plus, Orton is in better shape than any of the QBs in his division - the Bears may be the team to beat.... Somewhere out there, mrpolarbear has a 2 foot erection.

Cleveland at Indy - Crennell's crew won a squeaker last week ... in Lambeau...with GB retiring Reggie Whites number. Dilfer had a career game (21-32 for 336yds). The Browns forced 2 picks off Favre - can they do that to Manning? The Browns running game worries me - they put up 55 total yds against a soft GB D and D-line. They got 336 yds passing - soft D in the secondary too. The Colts only scored 10 points last week...now, consider this - Jak was the ONLY team to beat them at home last year -Jak has Indys number. As for Cleveland....Manning will throw the ball more, he has too many talented recievers for this tam to keep up with. Crennell has to slow them down, keep INdys offense off the field - then they'll have a chance. Indys line already moved today from 14 to 13.5 - I'd like to see it down to maybe 10.5.

New Orleans at Minnesota - ouch ...0-3 for the Vikings? A definite possibility. WTF happened to Culpepper? They usually save this kind if implosion for December, they're starting early. Minnesota has been doing everything wrong lately - somebody fire somebody already! I like NO as dogs for 4.5 on this.

Tampa at Green Bay - if only it was colder...about 20 degrees F or below. Then I'd take GB...but for the money - I'm riding on a Cadillac. I snickered the first week, I bet the second week, I'm a believer the third week - this guy is the real deal. The lines already moved up from 2.5 to 3 - it'll be TB for me-unless the line gets stupid. Back to back home losses in Lambeau - is it even possible?

Tennesse at StLouis - The Titans ate up Baltimores D last week - they have five new starters on d but forced 6 sacks and 2 turnovers. Their D held Baltimore to 12 first downs all day. The Rams beat the Cardinals by 5 - thats not the big deal - the big deal is that the Greatest show on turf only managed 17 points. Against a hapless D. The Archuletta sack late and the Davis false start is what saved Martz' miserable ass. St.Louis for 6.5? It'll get bumped up...and I'll take the Titans. Watch the injury reports for Tennesse.

 

[ottawasub]

Evening Game

New York Giants @ San Diego -5.5

MNF

Kansas City @ Denver -2.5

I mentioned before Week 1 that Kansas City and the NY Giants were being underrated by the lines that week. Now we`re at Week 3; both those teams are 2-0, looking very impressive while doing it, and they are both playing this week against a couple of teams who have not looked impressive ( SD and Denver), and they`re still being undervalued by the oddsmakers. I`m not complaining, I`ll gladly take the points on both those games, but what do KC and the Giants have to do to get some respect?

I like Arizona to win their first one this week against Seattle- 6.5 is way too high for Seattle to be favoured by. I also agree that Carolina should easily win by more than 3.5; Miami will be a good team towards the end of the year, but there`s going to be some growing pains along the way.

Healer: last week you said you`d keep taking New England until somebody beat them. Now that that`s happened, what now? Especially against the Steelers. I`m leaning towards the Patriots here as they have the three points and Pittsburgh hasn`t been tested yet this year, but you can never underestimate the revenge factor.

 

[healer677]

hey ottawasub -

I agree Jr. is learning - watching him develop from one year to the next is amazing. I like the Giants to keep it close. The Chargers are in a must win situation here and the fans haven't forgotten - Jr. didn't want to play for them. And if someone will give you points for KC - take it. KC will try and go 3 and 0 - but this is a rivalry game - Denver will be tough at home.

New England *shaking head* ... I was reminded by a friend that Jacksonville has their number - always had...and possibly always will. But against the Steelers? I like New England plus points. They'll be at Heinz. Last week Ben had 254 yds passing and 14 completions...but a lot of those yards were after the catch - against the Texans' D. I doubt that will happen against NE. Carr was sacked 8 times. I know Brady is slow and the Steelers will blitz all day but if he can stay off his ass, they'll make plays. Last week Brady completed just over 50% of his passes and they rushed for 39 yards....Belichik must have shit on them all week so far. NE will want to break Pittsburghs win streak and Ben's personal win streak. This is a statement game. NE has to win- they cannot fall 1 and 2 and have Pittsburgh go 3 and 0. Emotion might play against Pittsburgh - over pursue on the blitz? doing too much? NE will use messed up formations on offense and mix it up on D. Belichik is the coach Martz wished he was. Plus - NE is still a very good team. 40-5 good. Last year NE lost against Miami in Week 15 (29-28?) - then they promptly won every game after to win the championship. Maybe a loss is what the doctor ordered.

Atlanta at Buffalo - Last week Losman showed me his true colors - expect more of that. 8 first downs, 47 yds rushing, 100 yds passing? what?! 2 sacks and less than 50% completion percentage?! Welcome to the NFL. Is Vick playing? I know he was cramping - but did he tweak a hamstring?

Dallas at SanFrancisco - holy shit! what a collapse...against the Redskins of all people. If there is one game to win -it's the Boys vs the Skins game. RB Jones has to run - the less Bledsoe handles the ball, the better. SF has to keep bettr coverage in the secondary. Cement shoes Bledsoe can't run, but still has an arm...and has the recievers and TE that can kill a soft secondary that can beat deep. Watch SF to play cover 2 most of the day and pass rush in to try and stop Jones.

Oakland at Philly - Oakland is too good to keep losing. If the spread is close I'll take the Eagles but if it opens up - I'll take a chance on the Raiders.

 

[healer677]

Very Few Changes

ok - the early Point Spread numbers are out and there's a couple of things bothering me.

Vegas had Indy opening at 14, down to 13.5. But Point Spread has them at 14.5. I'm going to take a much closer look at Crennell's boys.

Point Spread has Minnesota undervalued at 3.5, vegas has them at a moving line of about 4.5.

The Bengals are favored in vegas by a fg - Point Spread decided to add that .5 for an extra kick in the balls against "the spread-breakers".

How is Buffalo favored against Atlanta? 2.5 ?! on Lose-man ?! Unless Vick blew out his hammy, I can't see how this is right - is Crumpler dead? Let me check the IR.

wow- miracles do happen - StLouis stayed at 6.5! I wonder if that doesn't go up by the time the sheet comes out.

I still can't figure out why the Giants and Cheifs are dogs by so much - I know it's a road game but come on.

 

[ottawasub]

The Bengals are favored in vegas by a fg - Point Spread decided to add that .5 for an extra kick in the balls against "the spread-breakers".

Do you think that spread might be lower on Friday? I`m surprised it`s as high as it is. Chicago seems to be getting the same of lack of respect that KC and NYG are. They`re at home after a very impressive showing last week, yet are dogs by 3.5. The Bengals were almost flawless last week, and I think they`ll beat Chicago, but I`d feel a lot more comfortable if it was 2.5.

Of course, if I wait it might be 4.5 on Friday.

 

[healer677]

I'll bet on the Chicago game now. I'd really hate to see that go to 4.5 or even 5.5.

I can't figure out how the Jets are favored - Curtis Martin is seriously questionable with his knee and Pennington has been throwing ducks all year. I am seriously thinking about making Jacksonville my anchor pick.

Vick is up in the air with the hamstring. It's hard for me to imagine the Bills and Lose-man beating the Falcons at anytime.

 

[homonger]

I'll bet on the Chicago game now. I'd really hate to see that go to 4.5 or even 5.5.

I can't figure out how the Jets are favored - Curtis Martin is seriously questionable with his knee and Pennington has been throwing ducks all year. I am seriously thinking about making Jacksonville my anchor pick.

Vick is up in the air with the hamstring. It's hard for me to imagine the Bills and Lose-man beating the Falcons at anytime.

I'm seeing Cincy +2.5 on my Pick Five site, so I think I will have to take the Bengals. The Bears looked tremendous last week, but so did the Bengals, and I think we will see that Cincinnati is no Detroit.

NYJ -2.5 at home over a Jax team with a hobbled Leftwich? I will probably stay away from this one, but it doesn't seem like a bad bet to me.

I am not a Vick fan, but Buffalo -3.5 at home seems a bit excessive. I will probably avoid this one too, but if I had to, I'd take Atlanta.

Nothing final yet, but so far I like GB +3.5 vs. TB, Carolina -3.5 vs. Miami, and Philly -7.5 vs. Oak. I am also leaning toward KC -3.5 over Den on Monday night.

 

[ottawasub]

Nothing final yet, but so far I like GB +3.5 vs. TB, Carolina -3.5 vs. Miami, and Philly -7.5 vs. Oak. I am also leaning toward KC -3.5 over Den on Monday night.

I agree with all those picks; I didn`t think anybody else was taking Green Bay this week. The only one I`m a little tentative about is Philly over Oakland. The Raiders are the best 0-2 team in the NFL right now, but I still can`t see the Eagles losing to them at home. 7.5 doesn`t seem too high.

 

[the rusty tromb]

What is your reasoning behind taking G.B?

I have Tampa as my only sure thing.

 

[homonger]

What is your reasoning behind taking G.B?

I have Tampa as my only sure thing.

No good reason, frankly. I don't think the Packers are particularly good, but I don't think they deserve to be a home dog. I don't see GB as an 0-3 team is really what it boils down too. Not a great reason, I agree, so I sure as heck wouldn't try to dissuade you from taking TB. Especially since I've been right so many times before here

 

[ottawasub]

I'll bet on the Chicago game now. I'd really hate to see that go to 4.5 or even 5.5.

I should have listened to you, it went up to 4.5 today. With the Bears defence, I`m not sure I want to give them those 4 points in a home game. Also, as you predicted the Carolina spread went up too, though I still think they`re a good bet.
Tampa is also up to 4.5; that makes Green Bay at home (where Tampa never wins) even more attractive.

 

[shack]

Games i didn't touch were Indy -14 and Dallas -7.

Tough to pick with the spread, but these are the two I'm considering for my survivor pool (no spreads). I've already taken Phil., so they're not an option. Even though 9'ers are a worse team than the Browns, I'll probably take Indy because I prefer not taking a road team.

My pick of the week for you guys is Miami at home +3. (I gave you Cleveland last week. )

 

[GlavaMan]

Shack, with no spread, take Indy for sure as a survivor pick. I like your Miami pick. The Panthers are hurting on defense. The Dolphins are a different team this year, they will cover the spread at home.

 

[ottawasub]

With a rare Saturday off work, I`m starting to second guess some of my earlier intentions:

- At 4.5 I`m going with Chicago. These lines this early in the season are still primarily based on how the experts thought these teams would do this season instead of how they actually played in the first two weeks. Every year there`s a team that makes the playoffs nobody counted on ( last year it was San Diego), this year it should be Chicago. 4.5 pt dogs at home? I can easily see this game being 10-7 in either direction. Speaking of teams who aren`t playing like people thought they would....

- Minnesota sucks. Has there been a less impressive team over the first two weeks? Was Randy Moss really that valuable? I keep hearing people say to take Minnesota because they can`t see them going 0-3. Why not? They`re already 2/3 of the way there. It`s similar to the horrible start Oakland had the year after making the Super Bowl, but everyone kept picking them just because.

- I was big on the Giants earlier, but San Diego may be the team who needs a win worse than anyone else. If you start 0-3 in the AFC, kiss the playoffs goodbye. It`s always risky to bet against a good team who`s desperate.

- Does St. Louis really deserve to be favoured by 6.5 against anybody. If this comes down to a battle of wits between the head coaches, would you bet on Mike Martz?

 

[homonger]

With a rare Saturday off work, I`m starting to second guess some of my earlier intentions:

- At 4.5 I`m going with Chicago. These lines this early in the season are still primarily based on how the experts thought these teams would do this season instead of how they actually played in the first two weeks. Every year there`s a team that makes the playoffs nobody counted on ( last year it was San Diego), this year it should be Chicago. 4.5 pt dogs at home? I can easily see this game being 10-7 in either direction. Speaking of teams who aren`t playing like people thought they would....

- Minnesota sucks. Has there been a less impressive team over the first two weeks? Was Randy Moss really that valuable? I keep hearing people say to take Minnesota because they can`t see them going 0-3. Why not? They`re already 2/3 of the way there. It`s similar to the horrible start Oakland had the year after making the Super Bowl, but everyone kept picking them just because.

- I was big on the Giants earlier, but San Diego may be the team who needs a win worse than anyone else. If you start 0-3 in the AFC, kiss the playoffs goodbye. It`s always risky to bet against a good team who`s desperate.

- Does St. Louis really deserve to be favoured by 6.5 against anybody. If this comes down to a battle of wits between the head coaches, would you bet on Mike Martz?

I agree with your points about Minnesota and San Diego. That said, I am not going near those games. I agree +4.5 on Chicago is too much, so I feel I got a relative bargain by taking Cincy -2.5 early in the week. As for the Rams, I agree Martz is not someone I'd entrust with the mortgage money, and Tennessee did look good last week... But I'm chickening out and staying out of this one too.

With my illustrious 5-5 record so far this season, my picks for this week are:

Cin -2.5 vs. CHI
Car -3.5 vs. MIA
PHI -7.5 vs. Oak
NYJ -2.5 vs Jax
Kc +3.5 vs. DEN

I need some winners!

 

[ottawasub]

I can`t believe I took Chicago just because the line moved one measly point. Orton was brutal; 5 f**king interceptions. That division winner may end up 7-9.

 

[homonger]

Another freaking brutal week for me. I think I will just pick teams out of a hat from now on.

Okay, Cincy was a gimme, imo, but freaking Philly, NYJ, and Carolina let me down. My timing stinks. I don't take Philly, NYJ or Carolina last week, but I pick them today. Then I don't take Minnesota today after taking them the first two weeks.

I was right about GB, but got cute and went for the money line bet (+155) instead of just taking the points. Another loser.

Philly should have covered, if not for a critical fumble by LJ Smith right at the Oakland goal line. That would have put them up 27-13. What a pisser.

And the freaking Jets. They suck. They made so many freaking mistakes and Jax is too good to do that with.

Still have one last bet in play, KC +3.5 tomorrow. If this one loses, then I will have to once again officially admit I have no idea what the hell I'm doing.

 

[shack]

I'm 7-5 so far and I've got Diego and Denver in the last two.

 

[GlavaMan]

My pick of the week for you guys is Miami at home +3. (I gave you Cleveland last week.

Nice one again Shack! Miami(like Cleveland a week earlier) not only covers the spread but wins outright.

We patiently await your Pick of the Week for week 4.