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New Zealand lockdown model a true success

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lenny2

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lenny2

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"The nation of nearly five million was briefly declared virus free, and although it still has a handful of cases, it has only had 25 deaths.

...Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's government has said the success in suppressing the virus is likely to help recovery prospects.Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the GDP numbers were better than expected, and suggested a strong recovery ahead.

"Going hard and early means that we can come back faster and stronger," he said.

Some economists are also predicting a swift recovery, because of New Zealand's strong response to the virus.

"We expect the June quarter's record-breaking GDP decline to be followed by a record-breaking rise in the September quarter," said Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon.

Ms Ardern said she backs the economy's ability to rebound.

"I think one of the key questions here is not just about what's happened over that June quarter in terms of the effect of lockdown. It's actually about the rebound - and I back New Zealand's rebound," she said.

Ms Ardern said activity is already picking up as the country has been able to open up a lot more quickly compared with other nations.



www.bbc.com

Covid pushes New Zealand into worst recession in years

The country saw early success in keeping out the virus, but strict measures have taken a toll.
www.bbc.com
 
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lenny2

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"Coronavirus restrictions have been lifted in New Zealand's biggest city, Auckland, which now joins the rest of the country at the lowest alert level.

New Zealand has recorded no new infections among the general population in the last 24-hour period.

In August, a local outbreak of the disease in Auckland prompted the closure of public spaces such as museums and playgrounds and a return to working from home.

The relaxation has taken effect 10 days before a general election in which New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is expected to be rewarded by voters for her handling of the pandemic.

 
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lenny2

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25 new cases of COVID-19

There are 25 new cases of COVID-19 to report in New Zealand today – 23 of these are imported cases caught at the border. Two are cases linked to the port worker reported on Sunday, who are workplace contacts.
www.health.govt.nz www.health.govt.nz
 
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johntheironsmith

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khufu said:
Yes, overall New Zealand has handled the pandemic better. However, 9.9 million people visited Hawaii in 2018 compared to 3.82 million to New Zealand (Google it).
Click to expand...
To clarify my point, the main argument that you were supporting is that it is easier for NZ to have few cases of covid since it is a remote island with a small population. Another person compared it to Hawaii to show that being an island with a smaller population doesn't mean that it is easier to keep your cases down. You supported this by saying that what makes Hawaii different from NZ is that it is a major tourist destination.

My argument is that it is not easier for NZ compared to Hawaii to manage the pandemic and that tourist numbers are irrelevant especially after the pandemic. Both places saw a huge reduction in the number of visitors. Hawaii and New Zealand, in April 2020, both saw ~99% reduction in visitors, down to a few thousand. 4,564 to Hawaii(source), 1,721 for NZ(source). In August this was 7,842 in NZ compared to 22,344 in Hawaii.

The influx of new people in my uneducated estimation seems almost insignificant for both compared to the hundreds of thousands that have come at the same time in previous years. But Hawaii could have always restricted it more because controlling entry to both places is equally easy with both of them being islands.

NZ also has a much larger population (4.9 million) compared to Hawaii (1.4 million). So, the risk of community spread is greater for NZ due to a larger population.

Based on all this, I don't think it's easier for NZ to manage the pandemic compared to Hawaii.

EDIT: Goddamnit, I spent so much time on an irrelevant internet conversation.
 
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Gooseifur

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johntheironsmith said:
To clarify my point, the main argument that you were supporting is that it is easier for NZ to have few cases of covid since it is a remote island with a small population. Another person compared it to Hawaii to show that being an island with a smaller population doesn't mean that it is easier to keep your cases down. You supported this by saying that what makes Hawaii different from NZ is that it is a major tourist destination.

My argument is that it is not easier for NZ compared to Hawaii to manage the pandemic and that tourist numbers are irrelevant especially after the pandemic. Both places saw a huge reduction in the number of visitors. Hawaii and New Zealand, in April 2020, both saw ~99% reduction in visitors, down to a few thousand. 4,564 to Hawaii(source), 1,721 for NZ(source). In August this was 7,842 in NZ compared to 22,344 in Hawaii.

The influx of new people in my uneducated estimation seems almost insignificant for both compared to the hundreds of thousands that have come at the same time in previous years. But Hawaii could have always restricted it more because controlling entry to both places is equally easy with both of them being islands.

NZ also has a much larger population (4.9 million) compared to Hawaii (1.4 million). So, the risk of community spread is greater for NZ due to a larger population.

Based on all this, I don't think it's easier for NZ to manage the pandemic compared to Hawaii.

EDIT: Goddamnit, I spent so much time on an irrelevant internet conversation.
Click to expand...
New Zealand is also 10x the size of Hawaii in terms of area. We know this makes a big difference. The more concentrated the population is the harder it is to keep infections down,
 
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lenny2

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glamphotographer said:
It's easy if you only have about 4.5 Million people and on a remote Island.
Click to expand...
The USA is the most powerful nation on earth. They should be able to defend their borders from incoming infections & defeat the spread of infections from within. Yet they failed on both fronts while New Zealand succeeded. NZ succeeded - not because they are a remote island but - because of the superior methods they employed, including cooperation from its people. Whether an island or not, a country has the choice to act to shut down its borders from incoming arrivals via air, water & land & to mandate shutdowns.
 
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lenny2

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Gooseifur said:
New Zealand is also 10x the size of Hawaii in terms of area. We know this makes a big difference. The more concentrated the population is the harder it is to keep infections down,
Click to expand...
All the more reason to embrace extreme safety measures, (lockdowns, etc).

Hawaii should have been aware of that & acted accordingly.
 
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lenny2

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"The only difference between island nations & others is that island nations do not allow people in by land. Instead they may be accessed by water. So what's the difference, really? Either way you need to block incoming air travel. And you need to block either incoming land or water travel.

The USA closed their only land borders with Canada & Mexico. The rest of the USA is water borders. But the USA failed in its closing of incoming air travel, amongst various other pandemic failures, leading to the USA being one of the top failures vs C-19 worldwide.
 
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MindJohn

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lenny2 said:
Hawaii is an even more remote island with even fewer people.

Hawaii covid deaths: 202
New Zealand deaths: 25

Australia deaths: 905
Taiwan deaths: 7
Click to expand...

Laos and Cambodia combined... 24 million people... zero Covid deaths
 
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MindJohn

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Aug 27, 2002
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johntheironsmith said:
To clarify my point, the main argument that you were supporting is that it is easier for NZ to have few cases of covid since it is a remote island with a small population. Another person compared it to Hawaii to show that being an island with a smaller population doesn't mean that it is easier to keep your cases down. You supported this by saying that what makes Hawaii different from NZ is that it is a major tourist destination.

My argument is that it is not easier for NZ compared to Hawaii to manage the pandemic and that tourist numbers are irrelevant especially after the pandemic. Both places saw a huge reduction in the number of visitors. Hawaii and New Zealand, in April 2020, both saw ~99% reduction in visitors, down to a few thousand. 4,564 to Hawaii(source), 1,721 for NZ(source). In August this was 7,842 in NZ compared to 22,344 in Hawaii.

The influx of new people in my uneducated estimation seems almost insignificant for both compared to the hundreds of thousands that have come at the same time in previous years. But Hawaii could have always restricted it more because controlling entry to both places is equally easy with both of them being islands.

NZ also has a much larger population (4.9 million) compared to Hawaii (1.4 million). So, the risk of community spread is greater for NZ due to a larger population.

Based on all this, I don't think it's easier for NZ to manage the pandemic compared to Hawaii.

EDIT: Goddamnit, I spent so much time on an irrelevant internet conversation.
Click to expand...

At the end of the day, the flow of Covid is a function of wealth, freedom and desirability as a destination.

Populations which have the freedom to come and go as they please, the wealth to be able to do so, and/or the desirability as a spot to be visited by others are typically the leading Covid nations.

You might say tourist data from the summer of 2020 isn't so relevant, which I get.

But when Covid introduced itself, the die was already cast. New Zealand and Australia were spared more because few were leaving the southern summer to go and revel in the northern winters, and thus fewer citizens were back banging at the doors for re-entry, with a set percentage of them carrying covid for all of their mates.

Hawaii typically has 7 times as many visitors in a year as it has citizens... where New Zealand can't even attain a 1-to-1 ratio that way, even with Australia practically next door.

Hawaii and New Zealand don't even compare on any level.


Your analysis would make sense were Covid a giant danger which could have been announced as a threat before it infiltrated nearly every society in the world.


As of January or February, most of the world was still in the throes of whatever is normal for that time of year. Needless to say, LOTS of people would have been in Hawaii at the time, but New Zealand isn't that great a lure for visitors from the north.

Hawaii and New Zealand are similar distance from Hubei, but Hawaii is probably included in typical travel patterns from China to anywhere at a greater rate than is New Zealand.


This isn't about whether it's "easier to manage" for New Zealand, but it is indisputable that New Zealand has had less to manage.
 
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lenny2

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Hawaii covid deaths: 202
New Zealand deaths: 25

Australia deaths: 905
Taiwan deaths: 7
 
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