Need help calculating odds

[TeeJay]

Tee Jay

Let's say you have a 50/50 chance of winning 100 bucks (disregard the entry cost of the raffle). You have two people that play. One plays only once, the other plays every week. Are you telling me that the person who plays more doesn't have a better chance of winning something than the person who only played once?

That is exactly what it means
Many people can not wrap their minds around it though

Whether you play 1 time or 100 times
Odds are the same
There are no cumulative odds (taking in to account previous losses) to make your chances better if you play more

 

[TeeJay]

If you buy 2 weeks the odds is 2 in 14 million.

lol no
Now I understand your betting comments

 

[benstt]

That is exactly what it means
Many people can not wrap their minds around it though

Whether you play 1 time or 100 times
Odds are the same
There are no cumulative odds (taking in to account previous losses) to make your chances better if you play more

Odds for each draw are the same, but the odds for the strategies overall (buying one ticket and stopping vs buying a ticket multiple weeks) are different. These guys have been asking a different question than you are answering.

 

[TeeJay]

Odds for each draw are the same, but the odds for the strategies overall (buying one ticket and stopping vs buying a ticket multiple weeks) are different. These guys have been asking a different question than you are answering.

Same answer
Buying multiple tickets makes them THINK they are improving their odds
Their ignorance of how odds are calculated are giving that impression

To put it another way
They have a 1 in 14 million chance to win
So by the (flawed) logic above, buying 14 million tickets should be smart
In reality it is incredibly stupid

Statistically they say they sell nearly 50 million lottery tickets every week
Yet despite the 1 in 14 million odds, there are often weeks where none of the 50 million tickets win jackpot
They even do multiple draws for the extra 1 million bonus prizes since despite having much better odds sometimes there is no winner

Statistically no 2 bettors are playing same number combinations either
Because the odd of them playing same numbers are exact same odds as they win jackpot

Lottery is a poor tax for the fools
Because none of them actually understand the math behind it

49! / 43! = 10,068,347,520
N! / (N-R)! (number of possible digits divided by number of picks)

 

[benstt]

Same answer
Buying multiple tickets makes them THINK they are improving their odds
Their ignorance of how odds are calculated are giving that impression

To put it another way
They have a 1 in 14 million chance to win
So by the (flawed) logic above, buying 14 million tickets should be smart
In reality it is incredibly stupid

You are mixing up two things - odds, and expected returns. Buying 14 million distinct tickets in a 6/49 would guarantee a win, but you may not cover your investment depending on the pot size and number of jackpot winners.

I think the point you are aiming to make is that the returns on a lottery, no matter the strategy for buying tickets, are poor. I agree.

But that is different from a pure odds discussion. The odds do go up as you buy more tickets, but your investment also goes up, with no increase in returns to make a difference.

Statistically they say they sell nearly 50 million lottery tickets every week
Yet despite the 1 in 14 million odds, there are often weeks where none of the 50 million tickets win jackpot
They even do multiple draws for the extra 1 million bonus prizes since despite having much better odds sometimes there is no winner

If you were buying 14 million tickets in a single 6/49 draw, you'd better buy distinct tickets, or you would be foolish.

Return wise, you may get your investment back if they had a large enough prize, but pot-splitting might kill you if someone else won too.

Statistically no 2 bettors are playing same number combinations either
Because the odd of them playing same numbers are exact same odds as they win jackpot

There would have to be some people playing the same numbers, if 50 million tickets are sold for a 6/49. There are only 14million (approximately) distinct numbers.

Lottery is a poor tax for the fools
Because none of them actually understand the math behind it

49! / 43! = 10,068,347,520
N! / (N-R)! (number of possible digits divided by number of picks)

This is almost correct, but needs to be adjusted for the fact that drawing {1,2,3,4,5,6} is the same as drawing {6,5,4,3,2,1}. Ie the order in which the balls are drawn does not matter.

If you take N!/(N-R)!R! you get 49! / (43! x 6!) which is the well known 13,983,816 combinations (ie approximately 14 million.)

I agree, lottery is a poor way to make money, but I also hope to clarify facts about odds and expected returns.

 

[Big Rig]

You are mixing up two things - odds, and expected returns.

But that is different from a pure odds discussion. The odds do go up as you buy more tickets, but your investment also goes up, with no increase in returns to make a difference.