Nanos poll: Liberals gain advantage as election enters holiday weekend

[canada-man]

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elec...-as-election-enters-holiday-weekend-1.2604318

The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows the Liberals gain an advantage as the election enters the Thanksgiving long weekend.
According to the latest numbers, which were released on Oct. 10:
The Liberals have 34.8 per cent support nationally
The Conservatives have 28.6 per cent support nationally
The NDP have 24.9 per cent support nationally
The Green Party has 5.4 per cent nationally
Poll respondents were asked "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"
Of those who chose the Conservatives first, 43 per cent said they had no second choice, while 52 per cent of those who chose the Liberals first chose the NDP second, and 50 per cent of those who chose the NDP first chose the Liberals second.

When asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider voting for a party:
50.5 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting Liberal
43.3 per cent would consider voting NDP
37.7 per cent would consider voting Conservative
26.2 per cent would consider voting Green
35.7 per cent would consider voting Bloc Quebecois (Quebec only)

 

[SkyRider]

How do these polls translate into seats?

 

[saxon]

They only poll 1200 people, how accurate can that possibly be when there are millions of eligible voters.

 

[ogibowt]

They only poll 1200 people, how accurate can that possibly be when there are millions of eligible voters.

i guess you figure the polls favoring Cons are based on a million people

 

[bver_hunter]

The most recent poll shows the Liberals at 34%, Conservatives at 28% and the NDP at 24%. While the Conservatives gained popularity for the Niquab issue in Quebec along with their buddies the Bloc Quebois, they seem to have lost that momentum in Ontario.

 

[Garrett]

i guess you figure the polls favoring Cons are based on a million people

It is a legitimate question. The samples are small and they do a lot of manipulation to make the numbers work.

Historically, the polls have not been that accurate. They are generally meant to help sell papers, to a public that does not understand statistics enough to truly understand the validity of the poll.

 

[rhuarc29]

When asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider voting for a party:
50.5 per cent of respondents said they would consider voting Liberal
43.3 per cent would consider voting NDP
37.7 per cent would consider voting Conservative
26.2 per cent would consider voting Green
35.7 per cent would consider voting Bloc Quebecois (Quebec only)

The Bloc needs to die a fiery death. I'm also wary of the NDP's support in Quebec and where it comes from. When I vote federally, I vote for what's best for the country, not the province I live in.

 

[saxon]

It is a legitimate question. The samples are small and they do a lot of manipulation to make the numbers work.

Historically, the polls have not been that accurate. They are generally meant to help sell papers, to a public that does not understand statistics enough to truly understand the validity of the poll.

Exactly the point I was making. Either way we're going to have a minority government, the question is will it be Cons or Libs and can they get a budget passed that will satisfy the other two parties.

 

[Avatar]

Historically, the polls have not been that accurate. They are generally meant to help sell papers, to a public that does not understand statistics enough to truly understand the validity of the poll.

The polls are inaccurate ? I would be surprised if the polls are wrong in predicting that none of the parties will win a majority. Let's hope the polls are understating the size of the liberal lead.
Btw Nanos have a good track record, that's not to say they will get it right all the time.

 

[Frankfooter]

Exactly the point I was making. Either way we're going to have a minority government, the question is will it be Cons or Libs and can they get a budget passed that will satisfy the other two parties.

It will never be a con minority, the liberals and ndp will work together and neither would trust Harper to work with him.

 

[fuji]

The polls are inaccurate ? I would be surprised if the polls are wrong in predicting that none of the parties will win a majority. Let's hope the polls are understating the size of the liberal lead.
Btw Nanos have a good track record, that's not to say they will get it right all the time.

The polls are inaccurate. That is a given. They are like reading tea leaves. At this point we don't have anything better than the polls, they are the best we have to go on, but nobody should have any illusions that they are accurate.

 

[LickingGravity]

I can't imagine a worst duo for future than Trudeau and Wynne.

 

[ogibowt]

It is a legitimate question. The samples are small and they do a lot of manipulation to make the numbers work.

Historically, the polls have not been that accurate. They are generally meant to help sell papers, to a public that does not understand statistics enough to truly understand the validity of the poll.

you may have missed my point....if recent polls suggested a Conservative lead, you, Saxon and the rest of the right wing rump on here would never question the methodoligy of said poll

 

[bver_hunter]

I can't imagine a worst duo for future than Trudeau and Wynne.

Harper has already exceeded that in terms of disasters.

 

[oldjones]

Single-handedly

 

[nottyboi]

I can't imagine a worst duo for future than Trudeau and Wynne.

Harper and Wynn..much worse
Harper and Brown...aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhgggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh