Rubbish, lots of non-union shops in Ontario. Corp taxes are extremely low in Canada. Sure payroll taxes are there, but lots of countries have payroll taxes. Canada has fallen in competitiveness ranking down to 14..which is not that bad. Crank the loonie down by 10-15% and Canada will be in the top 8 for sure. Improve the transportation infrastructure and you can crank it up another 3-4 places. When manufacturing increases in the US it will also increase in Ontario.
Massive Oil Discovery Down Under
- Thread starter danibbler
- Start date
Peak oil nuts keep taking it in the shorts...
UPDATE 3-US doubles oil reserve estimates at Bakken, Three Forks shale
Tue Apr 30, 2013 5:37pm EDT
By Patrick Rucker and Valerie Volcovici
(Reuters) - An oil-rich region of the north-central United States holds more than twice the recoverable crude supplies estimated just five years ago, according to a government study that highlights the nation's march toward energy self-sufficiency.
The Bakken Formation and Three Forks Formation, which spans parts of Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota together hold an estimated 7.4 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, the U.S. Geological Survey study said, although energy experts said those estimates likely understate the region's full potential.
That total is more than double the previous estimate, from 2008, and officials said it is a building block towards energy independence.
"These world-class formations contain even more energy resource potential than previously understood, which is important information as we continue to reduce our nation's dependence on foreign sources of oil," Interior Secretary Sally Jewell said in prepared remarks.
Besides the crude reserves, the two formations hold a mean estimate of 6.7 trillion cubic feet of as-yet undiscovered natural gas and 530 million barrels of natural gas liquids that are within reach. In both cases those represent a nearly three-fold increase from the previous tally.
Officials said the overall jump in reserves was chiefly due to production now thought to be accessible in the Three Forks Formation, in the southern edge of North Dakota, which had not been tallied in the last study.
"Three Forks is up and coming," said Brenda Pierce, coordinator for the Energy Resources Program at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
Rapid development in the Three Forks region means that recoverable reserves are higher than the USGS estimate, energy experts said.
"We agree with the range of numbers and think the high estimate of 11 billion barrels is a reasonable target as technology and exploration of the Three Forks continues," said Lynn Helms, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, referring to the upper end of the USGS estimate.
Dr. Don Van Nieuwenhuise, head of the geosciences program at University of Houston, said the USGS numbers are conservative as they are based on looking at "sweet spots" within the formation.
"There are chances there are sweet spots they don't know about. The prospects of finding additional sweet spots in an area this size is relatively high," he said. "I'm pretty sure every drop they say you're going to find, you'll find."
New drilling technologies like hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have turned the Bakken Formation and Three Forks into one of the nation's most important sources of domestic crude.
4,000 WELLS IN THE BASIN
Since the 2008 USGS assessment more than 4,000 wells have been drilled in the Williston Basin, the area that contains the formations.
Seven companies now producing oil in the region provided data to the USGS about the latest technologies and recovery rates in the region, including Marathon Oil and Sinclair Oil Corp.
The USGS considers the Bakken and Three Forks to be the largest continuous oil formation in the continental United States.
The expanded estimates came hours after Saudi Arabia's energy minister gave a speech in Washington in which he said oil supplies are "coming from everywhere." Saudi Arabia thus "has no plans" to dramatically boost oil production capacity, said the kingdom's Ali al-Naimi.
During a conference call with reporters, Jewell said that the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management would soon present long-anticipated draft rules to govern fracking on federal land.
"Certainly in a matter of weeks, not months," Jewell said, noting that Interior received over 100,000 comment letters when an unfinished draft of the rules was presented.
"There has been sufficient change to warrant another public comment period," said Jewell, just weeks into her job as the nation's chief steward for public lands.
The oil and gas industry, which already has extensive drilling on federal land, worries that new fracking rules could curtail development. Environmentalists warn that existing fracking rules are not stringent enough to curb pollution.
UPDATE 3-US doubles oil reserve estimates at Bakken, Three Forks shale
Tue Apr 30, 2013 5:37pm EDT
By Patrick Rucker and Valerie Volcovici
(Reuters) - An oil-rich region of the north-central United States holds more than twice the recoverable crude supplies estimated just five years ago, according to a government study that highlights the nation's march toward energy self-sufficiency.
The Bakken Formation and Three Forks Formation, which spans parts of Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota together hold an estimated 7.4 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, the U.S. Geological Survey study said, although energy experts said those estimates likely understate the region's full potential.
That total is more than double the previous estimate, from 2008, and officials said it is a building block towards energy independence.
"These world-class formations contain even more energy resource potential than previously understood, which is important information as we continue to reduce our nation's dependence on foreign sources of oil," Interior Secretary Sally Jewell said in prepared remarks.
Besides the crude reserves, the two formations hold a mean estimate of 6.7 trillion cubic feet of as-yet undiscovered natural gas and 530 million barrels of natural gas liquids that are within reach. In both cases those represent a nearly three-fold increase from the previous tally.
Officials said the overall jump in reserves was chiefly due to production now thought to be accessible in the Three Forks Formation, in the southern edge of North Dakota, which had not been tallied in the last study.
"Three Forks is up and coming," said Brenda Pierce, coordinator for the Energy Resources Program at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
Rapid development in the Three Forks region means that recoverable reserves are higher than the USGS estimate, energy experts said.
"We agree with the range of numbers and think the high estimate of 11 billion barrels is a reasonable target as technology and exploration of the Three Forks continues," said Lynn Helms, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, referring to the upper end of the USGS estimate.
Dr. Don Van Nieuwenhuise, head of the geosciences program at University of Houston, said the USGS numbers are conservative as they are based on looking at "sweet spots" within the formation.
"There are chances there are sweet spots they don't know about. The prospects of finding additional sweet spots in an area this size is relatively high," he said. "I'm pretty sure every drop they say you're going to find, you'll find."
New drilling technologies like hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, have turned the Bakken Formation and Three Forks into one of the nation's most important sources of domestic crude.
4,000 WELLS IN THE BASIN
Since the 2008 USGS assessment more than 4,000 wells have been drilled in the Williston Basin, the area that contains the formations.
Seven companies now producing oil in the region provided data to the USGS about the latest technologies and recovery rates in the region, including Marathon Oil and Sinclair Oil Corp.
The USGS considers the Bakken and Three Forks to be the largest continuous oil formation in the continental United States.
The expanded estimates came hours after Saudi Arabia's energy minister gave a speech in Washington in which he said oil supplies are "coming from everywhere." Saudi Arabia thus "has no plans" to dramatically boost oil production capacity, said the kingdom's Ali al-Naimi.
During a conference call with reporters, Jewell said that the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management would soon present long-anticipated draft rules to govern fracking on federal land.
"Certainly in a matter of weeks, not months," Jewell said, noting that Interior received over 100,000 comment letters when an unfinished draft of the rules was presented.
"There has been sufficient change to warrant another public comment period," said Jewell, just weeks into her job as the nation's chief steward for public lands.
The oil and gas industry, which already has extensive drilling on federal land, worries that new fracking rules could curtail development. Environmentalists warn that existing fracking rules are not stringent enough to curb pollution.
I don't know about that (@ a $0.60 dollar), but for sure not at today's exchange. Transporation costs from China can negate savings from lower wages, etc.clue in
those jobs are permanently gone & not coming back even with a $0.60 dollar
dream onRubbish, lots of non-union shops in Ontario. Corp taxes are extremely low in Canada. Sure payroll taxes are there, but lots of countries have payroll taxes. Canada has fallen in competitiveness ranking down to 14..which is not that bad. Crank the loonie down by 10-15% and Canada will be in the top 8 for sure. Improve the transportation infrastructure and you can crank it up another 3-4 places. When manufacturing increases in the US it will also increase in Ontario.
Interesting article on strategic implications...
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/how-shale-energy-reshapes-american-security-8423
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/how-shale-energy-reshapes-american-security-8423
This is why resource and energy industry is always cyclical in nature. When there is over-production, prices go down, which forces some mine closures and stops explorations. over time, the existing mine / oil fields are depleted, supply reduces, prices go up, which causes new investment in oil / resources, which causes new explorations and new mining technologies, which increases productions again. which makes prices go down again.
However, Each cycle can last up to 10 - 15 years, which is more than enough time to convince some people's belief to one extreme or the other. Over the past 10 years turned so many investment wanna be gurus into limiting resource / peak oil / gold will go up forever fanatics. We will see their money bleed dry in the next 10 years.
However, Each cycle can last up to 10 - 15 years, which is more than enough time to convince some people's belief to one extreme or the other. Over the past 10 years turned so many investment wanna be gurus into limiting resource / peak oil / gold will go up forever fanatics. We will see their money bleed dry in the next 10 years.
And I think some high value manufacturing will return to the US as electricity costs plummet.....This is why resource and energy industry is always cyclical in nature. When there is over-production, prices go down, which forces some mine closures and stops explorations. over time, the existing mine / oil fields are depleted, supply reduces, prices go up, which causes new investment in oil / resources, which causes new explorations and new mining technologies, which increases productions again. which makes prices go down again.
However, Each cycle can last up to 10 - 15 years, which is more than enough time to convince some people's belief to one extreme or the other. Over the past 10 years turned so many investment wanna be gurus into limiting resource / peak oil / gold will go up forever fanatics. We will see their money bleed dry in the next 10 years.
OTB
I don't follow power prices trend in the U.S. Based on what I know I'd beAnd I think some high value manufacturing will return to the US as electricity costs plummet.....
OTB
very surprised if electricity cost has been an issue as far as the economy
is concerned lately. To my guess around 25% of power production
in the U.S. is fueled by natural gas which must have been as cheap as coal
for some years. Oil as an fuel for power plants is insignificant as far as
I know.I just can't see how any massive oil discovery would translate to low
electricity cost which I believe will remain reasonably cheap for many years.
Natural Gas for electricity production is down significantntly.I don't follow power prices trend in the U.S. Based on what I know I'd be
very surprised if electricity cost has been an issue as far as the economy
is concerned lately. To my guess around 25% of power production
in the U.S. is fueled by natural gas which must have been as cheap as coal
for some years. Oil as an fuel for power plants is insignificant as far as
I know.I just can't see how any massive oil discovery would translate to low
electricity cost which I believe will remain reasonably cheap for many years.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3045us3a.htm
May be wishful thinking on my part.
Don't think many manufacturing jobs are going back to the us to make any significant impact, but corporate earnings will drive the economic recovery nonetheless.
You are generally correct, however most of the easy to extract oil has been found, while new technologies may make them physically accessible, economically viable is different storyThis is why resource and energy industry is always cyclical in nature. When there is over-production, prices go down, which forces some mine closures and stops explorations. over time, the existing mine / oil fields are depleted, supply reduces, prices go up, which causes new investment in oil / resources, which causes new explorations and new mining technologies, which increases productions again. which makes prices go down again.
However, Each cycle can last up to 10 - 15 years, which is more than enough time to convince some people's belief to one extreme or the other. Over the past 10 years turned so many investment wanna be gurus into limiting resource / peak oil / gold will go up forever fanatics. We will see their money bleed dry in the next 10 years.
Other factors such as pipeline, refinery, & other infrastructure capacity and the influence of left-wing (nutjob- tree hugging) environmentalist have further complicated and distorted the basic supply & demand equation
Finally oil and politics have been intertwined since WW1 and global politics is becoming ever more complex. China is oil hungry
Even in the event of a global economic slowdown, I do not think you will see oil crashing down to $50 / bbl
I certainly don't have the right background to predict energy prices, I do think a new technology has been introduced that has global implications for massive oil and natural gas production.... This should have both price and geo-political ramifications.You are generally correct, however most of the easy to extract oil has been found, while new technologies may make them physically accessible, economically viable is different story
Other factors such as pipeline, refinery, & other infrastructure capacity and the influence of left-wing (nutjob- tree hugging) environmentalist have further complicated and distorted the basic supply & demand equation
Finally oil and politics have been intertwined since WW1 and global politics is becoming ever more complex. China is oil hungry
Even in the event of a global economic slowdown, I do not think you will see oil crashing down to $50 / bbl
OTB
You never know. China has plenty of shale reserve on its own. just don't have the technology to extract it yet. only matter of time.China is oil hungry. Even in the event of a global economic slowdown, I do not think you will see oil crashing down to $50 / bbl
$50 is probably a good support level. one thing you know for sure about the market is to never say never.
Having the reserve, being able to reach it and then get it where it needs to go are all different things. It was mention the last time the Oz find was posted, on TERB, this was not new news, they are 10-20 years away from getting there.You never know. China has plenty of shale reserve on its own. just don't have the technology to extract it yet. only matter of time.
$50 is probably a good support level. one thing you know for sure about the market is to never say never.
Why could the US not sell China the technology, or better yet, have our oil/gas firms go develop it for them... you don't think the ME developed their own technology - look at Venezuela, they can't even refine the oil they can produce....You never know. China has plenty of shale reserve on its own. just don't have the technology to extract it yet. only matter of time.
$50 is probably a good support level. one thing you know for sure about the market is to never say never.
OTB
Crude oil price at one point in the last 5 years plunged to.........................................
$50 is probably a good support level. one thing you know for sure about the market is to never say never.
as low as $30. Anything is possible but speculating an unrealistic
price has as much meaning as saying a stock market crash
of the magnitude of 2008 could happen.
I cannot predict what the crude oil price will be one year
from now. If I have to venture a guess oil price could fall anywhere
in the range of $70---$200 in the next few years. This kind of 'forecast'
won't help with oil stock investing of course. For me the important
thing is to have a more or less accurate macro picture. From every
sign I've observed oil supply will remain tight for a while. Despite
very impressive surge of oil production in North Dakota and Texas
oil price futures trading in NYMEX show no signs of retreat to anywhere
close to the 2008 level despite the fact that U.S. oil demand has
dropped significantly. In the rest of the world I see no evidence of any
impending major increase in oil production with the exception of
Iraq. As far as I can see any realistic possibility of a major pull back of the
oil price to below $70 would have to be another downturn of the global
economy nearly as bad as the 2008 financial crisis. At the other extreme
a major geopolitical conflict like a war with Iran, Saudi revolution
or Al Qaeda attack of Saudi oil fields can send oil to a level as high
as $200. Common sense dictates the more extreme a scenario the
least likely it is going to transpire. As such while I am not going to disregard
the possibility of an oil crisis at both extremes 100% I will focus on
protection of my stock portfolio from the impact of oil price volatility and
escalating energy costs on the economy rather than predicting oil
pricing trend beyond the immediate to intermediate future.
Even $70 oil is on the high side for the U.S. economy to resume a
pre-2000 growth rate. If global economic activity ever rise
back to the pre-2008 level oil price can easily shoot back
to $140 in my assessment.
Oil price going below $50 would be tremendous for everyone
other than oil producers. For the third world it means affordable
transportation and food prices. If only I can disregard the impact
of global warming I would like to see oil prices falling to $30 which
could help to alleviate ongoing food and gas crisis in Egypt. To me
any prospect of oil prices driven to such an unrealistically low range in
the future by a largely undeveloped oil resource however massive is no
more meaningful than my view that U.S. along with global oil production
will dwindle to a tiny fraction of the present level by the end of this
century. If one of these views is true neither will materialize soon enough to
have any impact on my investment strategy.
Last edited:
oil&gas your assessment is reasonable. I share the same long term view on resources - they are limited and average prices tend to go up. In short term (next 10 years), we are likely to see a bumpy ride, better buying opportunity for me.
