March Madness

[lawyerman]

Watch WKy to cover the spread against the Zags tomorrow -the rest should be obvious for money line bets.

WKY has a pretty good squad but the west coast teams usually do not get very much love in the tournament. Gonzaga usually starts off slowly but they usually turn up the heat in the end. They are a solid team and I am calling for a double digit win.

Memphis should beat Maryland but I'm not feeling that spread. Maryland is a strange bunch because you never know what to expect from them.

 

[OnTheWayOut]

Gotta love the 2nd round midwest matchup of #12 Zona v #13 Cleveland St ....... not sure why but I actually picked Zona over the Utes in my bracket and have them making it to the 3rd. Good chance that'll happen, every dog has their day! *ruff!*

 

[lawyerman]

Gotta love the 2nd round midwest matchup of #12 Zona v #13 Cleveland St ....... not sure why but I actually picked Zona over the Utes in my bracket and have them making it to the 3rd. Good chance that'll happen, every dog has their day! *ruff!*

I really didn't think that Cleveland St. would beat Wake but they beat them soundly. It was never really close. That's scary. I know that Wake has had their moments (they did lose to Georgia Tech) but I thought they would win.
Arizona was really not that big of a surprise. Utah could not get going and the "Big 3" for Zona were running on all cylinders. If one of those 3 falter, it will be difficult for them to win anything. I believe they account for 90% of their teams total points. Unreal.

Today, I really like Villanova (playing in Philadelphia should help, home court)
Memphis should win but Maryland should keep it close.
Connecticut should take care of Texas A&M.
I like Washington over Purdue.
North Carolina over LSU (if Ty Lawson plays, if he doesn't this will should be very close)
Oklahoma over Michigan
Gonzaga over Western Kentucky
Duke over Texas (most interesting matchup of the day)

 

[ckupets04]

Today, I really like Villanova (playing in Philadelphia should help, home court)
Memphis should win but Maryland should keep it close.
Connecticut should take care of Texas A&M.
I like Washington over Purdue.
North Carolina over LSU (if Ty Lawson plays, if he doesn't this will should be very close)
Oklahoma over Michigan
Gonzaga over Western Kentucky
Duke over Texas (most interesting matchup of the day)

Good call on the Duke/Texas matchup Lawyerman. It was very interesting. Texas looked like they could have won that with the way Varez Ward was playing in the 2nd half, Duke had no answer for his dribble penetration. Clark Kellogg called it, Singler and Scheyer had to play better in the 2nd half and they did. The missed FTs hurt the Longhorns though.

 

[lawyerman]

Good call on the Duke/Texas matchup Lawyerman. It was very interesting. Texas looked like they could have won that with the way Varez Ward was playing in the 2nd half, Duke had no answer for his dribble penetration. Clark Kellogg called it, Singler and Scheyer had to play better in the 2nd half and they did. The missed FTs hurt the Longhorns though.

Texas did not shoot the 3 ball very well either and as you noted the free throws were an important factor. Clark Kellogg knows his stuff man, I tell you. I was worong in a couple of my predictions because I thought Washington would beat Purdue (they lost by 2 points) and I thought Gonzaga would win convincingly(which they were doing and then WKU was on fire and kept up with them. The Duke game and the Gonzaga game were the two best games of the day, no question.

 

[lawyerman]

I though yesterday was a semi-tough day but today looks much tougher.

Here are my picks:

Syracuse over Arizona State (tough game guys, State will keep it close and might even pull out the victory but James Harden has to play better) I hate picking this game because I think James Harden is a fantastic player and don't want to see him get eliminated from the tournament yet. He has something to prove and his stock in the draft could drop a place or two if he doesn't perform today.
Xavier over Wisconsin
Kansas over Dayton
Arizona over Cleveland State
Pittsburgh over Oklahoma State
Missouri over Marquette
Michigan State over USC
Louisville over Siena

I do like the favourites today but there are some games that are too close to call.

If there are any upsets, I like Arizona State (this depends on James Harden and how he plays), Cleveland State (because of what they did to Wake Forest), and USC (because they beat Boston College so badly in the second half if was laughable). Some people are saying Marquette could beat Missouri and Missouri has not been a good road team at all but I still think thar Missouri takes care of Marquette by a slim margin.

 

[lawyerman]

I can't believe that Pitt is losing to Xavier. I though they would come out with a better effort.

Purdue is really giving UConn a run for their money. Might be an upset but UConn is pretty strong.

 

[ckupets04]

I am so glad Villanova beat Duke. Duke had a poor night shooting for the most part, Gerald Henderson had a forgettable night to say the least. I thought in the first half Villanova played excellent defense contesting most of Duke's shots but as the game progressed, particularly in the 2nd half Duke got a lot of open-looks, quality high % looks but the shots just werent falling.

Was anyone else surprised by the fact that Villanova in the 2nd half with the 13 point lead or so didnt start to use clock more? They were practically helping Duke by taking shots really early in the shot clock, and defensively they were putting Duke on the charity stripe as well down the stretch allowing the Blue Devils to put points on the board with the clock stopped. It was not until about 4 minutes left in the 2nd half that finally Nova started to run some clock on the offensive end and milk the clock.

Duke, early in the 2nd half I thought had too many empty offensive trips (where they were not getting shots off due to turnovers). They just couldnt afford to have empty trips on a night where they were shooting that poorly.

 

[lawyerman]

I am so glad Villanova beat Duke. Duke had a poor night shooting for the most part, Gerald Henderson had a forgettable night to say the least. I thought in the first half Villanova played excellent defense contesting most of Duke's shots but as the game progressed, particularly in the 2nd half Duke got a lot of open-looks, quality high % looks but the shots just werent falling.

Was anyone else surprised by the fact that Villanova in the 2nd half with the 13 point lead or so didnt start to use clock more? They were practically helping Duke by taking shots really early in the shot clock, and defensively they were putting Duke on the charity stripe as well down the stretch allowing the Blue Devils to put points on the board with the clock stopped. It was not until about 4 minutes left in the 2nd half that finally Nova started to run some clock on the offensive end and milk the clock.

Duke, early in the 2nd half I thought had too many empty offensive trips (where they were not getting shots off due to turnovers). They just couldnt afford to have empty trips on a night where they were shooting that poorly.

I had a feeling about that one. Nova was looking good in the first couple of rounds but they were playing in Philadelphia so they had a huge home court advantage. I thought Duke would give them a bit of a run and even though they really did not have an answer for Dante Cunningham, they also didn't have an answer for Scottie Reynolds. Nova wasn't particularly great at shooting the ball but Duke was absolutely awful.

I'm not surprised that Nova was taking shots early because they were confident but when you have the lead and are burying the opposition you just want to finish them off early. I'm not a huge believer in that though. It is much more difficult to play defense than offense and the opposition will get more tired that way. I think that they should have wasted more time on the clock as well but they won anyways.

My picks for tonight:

Louisville over Arizona. This one should be closer than people think. I think that Louisville is more balanced than Zona but Nic Wise has been playing so well and Louisville doesn't have top quality guards that can play with him. I think Chase Budinger can be neutralized a bit and Louisville needs a big game from Samardo Samuels to take care of Jordan Hill because he is absolutely relentless.

Oklahoma over Syracuse. This game is too close to call but Oklahoma has Blake Griffin and he is a man against boys. An absolute powerhouse and he seems to be back on his game after he went down with an injury. Syracuse has been playing so well and there defence has been outstanding. What a difference a few games make because at the beginning of the year, they were horrible.

Michigan State over Kansas. Another game that should be very close. I like the depth of Michigan State but it will be difficult to completely take Cole Aldrich at Sherron Collins out of the game.

North Carolina over Gonzaga. This depends on the status of Ty Lawson. NC is deep enough to win but Lawson should only take them that much further. The game that Gonzaga played against WKY scared me so I wonder how they will play the Tar Heels.

 

[friendz4evr]

The Cinderella slippers fit Villanova.

 

[healer677]

Nova looked good on D last night -or could Duke not execute? Chicken or the egg argument but...

I've got Lville, NC and UConn (already in) on a parlay money line and I have UConn, X-men (plus 10) -these guys are in, Kansas plus 8 1/2, Lville -2, Syr plus 8, NC -1 1/2 on a monster parlay. I'm thinking of hedging Syracuse though....

 

[lawyerman]

The Cinderella slippers fit Villanova.

Pennsylvania cross state rivals. Love it. I really like Villanova as well but their shooting was a tad suspect yesterday. Otherwise, they played a solid game all around. Pittsburgh was looking strong until they entered the tournament. It seems like they have been starting slowly and then they decide to turn it on at the end. No prediction yet.

 

[healer677]

I'm such a chicken shit.

I just laid a parlay on LVille, UNC, Kansas plus 8 and Oklahoma -1 (hopefully in theory if Oklahoma wins but wins by less than 8 I can cash this one in and my monster ticket.)

Next round I'm eyeballing Nova for some value bets -plus the points of course. I hate the way Pitt drags their asses so far in the tournament. I think Mizzou's cinderella run will be over in the next round.

 

[lawyerman]

I'm such a chicken shit.

I just laid a parlay on LVille, UNC, Kansas plus 8 and Oklahoma -1 (hopefully in theory if Oklahoma wins but wins by less than 8 I can cash this one in and my monster ticket.)

Next round I'm eyeballing Nova for some value bets -plus the points of course. I hate the way Pitt drags their asses so far in the tournament. I think Mizzou's cinderella run will be over in the next round.

Pitt is favoured by 2 over nova right now. Not much of a spread.

How did you get Kansas plus 8?

 

[healer677]

I use bet365 - I can move the lines up to about 10 points on the regular post (under the Baketball tab on the right -then click to added pointspreads....I think or more point spreads in the right of the sub folder). The problem with getting Kansas at plus 8 is it pays about 1.28 or so. So I have to play parlays just to make the payout around 2.77 to around maybe 3.10 or so. You can play the money lines on singles too but that doesn't pay shit unless you're willing to bet a good chunk.

 

[healer677]

I'd take Nova at a double digit spread....maybe 10 1/2. There's no way Pitt will cover a dd spread.

or

hedge it both ways to cover and you get a standing 1.90 for the cover. I'll anchor both pics with UConn on a moneyline.

Early in the rounds I play a lot of money lines but once it starts to creep into sweet 16 I look for messed up apreads. The monster one last week was WKy to cover and they did -all other parlays were built around that one game. But once I'm in the 16 - I'll play max 4 or 5 game parlays unless there's a doozy out there. My close to the spread call is Syracuse and Oklahoma. I'm hoping to double tap them on 7.

 

[lawyerman]

I'd take Nova at a double digit spread....maybe 10 1/2. There's no way Pitt will cover a dd spread.

or

hedge it both ways to cover and you get a standing 1.90 for the cover. I'll anchor both pics with UConn on a moneyline.

Early in the rounds I play a lot of money lines but once it starts to creep into sweet 16 I look for messed up apreads. The monster one last week was WKy to cover and they did -all other parlays were built around that one game. But once I'm in the 16 - I'll play max 4 or 5 game parlays unless there's a doozy out there. My close to the spread call is Syracuse and Oklahoma. I'm hoping to double tap them on 7.

Thanks for the info. BTW, the picks look pretty good.

 

[healer677]

Stupid Syracuse couldn't make a game out of it. But still waiting on UConn and Kansas...

Laid my Saturday bets -took UConn on the money line and Nova plus 9.

 

[ckupets04]

Too bad Gonzaga made those TOs in the first half, the difference in that first half was the points UNC got off the Gonzaga TOs. Looked like the Zags were making a run there in the 2nd half led by Pargo when they closed the gap to 11 points but then Roy Williams called a timeout and then Bobby Frasor came off the bench and hit back-to-back trey's and then UNC followed that up with back-to-back 3-point plays the old fashioned way with Ellington and Hansborough, that all but sealed the deal for the Tar Heels. I also thought UNC was doing a better job of getting inside than Gonzaga did for the most part. Lawson had a heck of a game and showed no ill effects from the toe.

I was surprised that CBS stayed with that game as long as they did, the Michigan State/Kansas game was in the balance and CBS kept going back just for one or two plays and then would quickly return to the UNC game. I guess its the UNC factor at play I suppose. Kalin Lucas came up big for the Spartans though down the stretch, I would have liked to have seen more of that game than CBS showed though.

 

[Stradler]

I was surprised that CBS stayed with that game as long as they did, the Michigan State/Kansas game was in the balance and CBS kept going back just for one or two plays and then would quickly return to the UNC game. I guess its the UNC factor at play I suppose. Kalin Lucas came up big for the Spartans though down the stretch, I would have liked to have seen more of that game than CBS showed though.

That is why I watch the game on the SCORE...they generally put on the closest game that is going on. Not sure if they did it on Friday as I was watching the games at a bar.