http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/soen20150815.pdf
More details very worth a read. If you look at it, voters are more likely to switch to the NDP to stop Harper then for voters to switch to CPC to stop Mulcair.
Compare who dominates in both in first, second choices choices. Barring a huge blunder by Tom Mulcair, your looking at an NDP government, people outside of the CPC hate Steven Harper. Look at the huge numbers of voters who would never concider voting for the CPC, vs. the tiny number who would never vote NDP.
Even amoung the CPC vote the NDP is the second choice of about a 5th of them.
Look at the numbers saying they want a change in Government vs. those who want the current government to remain in office (those who want it to remain are only 21%).
The CPC is in deep shit and right now this election is the NDPs to lose.
Outside of the polls the NDP is pulling in star candiates, like the former Finance Minister of Sask whose budget had a 2 billion dollar surplus (and just to give you rightwingers a boner, he also had the largest tax cuts in the provinces history) vs. Joe Oliver who has once agian falled to balance a budget, just the lastest failure, no surprise when they offered 14 billion in bribes, er promises, mostly to targeted ridings, before the election was even called, and he hasn't slowed down since!
BTW I'm predicting Joe Oliver loses Eglington Lawerence, to Andrew Thompson, the NDP candiate, as I suspect much of the Liberal vote will turn towards the NDP in the riding.
Plus Trudeau is an idiot who once again said no to a coalition government which tells swing NDP-Liberal voters that a vote for Justin Trudeau is a vote for Steven Harper.