Jays 2026 Thread

[onomatopoeia]

''Nolan Ryan exhibited a significant, and in some years drastic, difference between his home and road earned run averages (ERA) throughout his 27-season career. His career home ERA was 2.77, while his road ERA was 3.73''

Interesting stat that was brought to my attention a little while ago...Those late afternoon starts in Anaheim were brutal for batters.

Ryan was no wizard with the ash wood.



He struck out 371 times in 852 at bats, (.435), which is only slightly better than Joey Gallo, (.450).

and Ryan was poor in the field, (he had a lifetime fielding pct of under .900). I think he had a lot of throwing errors trying to pick runners off base.

Nolan Ryan Career Stats from baseball-reference(dot)com

If I recall correctly, opposing runners had a much better than average success rate stealing bases against him. @maurice93 is more likely to know something like that.

I looked in the stats on baseball-reference, but they don't have three important pitching stats: Stolen Bases/ Stolen Base attempts, and Pickoffs. I'm more interested in seeing all of the 'hard numbers' in stats.

The information in the Advanced Pitching section on baseball-reference is interesting to me:



Specifically for the On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage numbers by opposing batters.

Forty years ago, I was trying to create a new statistical average for baseball hitters and pitchers. For batters, the formula was √ (OBP*SLG).

I've never liked the .OPS stat because it overly rewards Batting Average, which is a component of both. OBP plus Isolated Power, (ie: SLG - Batting Average), is a more useful figure, in my opinion.

What my formula was trying to show was the 'percentage of a base' which a batter acquired per plate appearance. If that number was multiplied by his plate appearances, the product would be a stat called 'All Bases'. Comparing different players' All Bases stat for any season could provide a good way to rank players.

The All Bases stat would benefit the players with more plate appearances. A stat of 'All Bases per game by a 0 WAR replacement', geared to specific fielding positions, might make a comparison to a player with better stats in fewer games more accurate. I'd rather have the guy who posts solid numbers in 150 games than the brittle superstar who misses a quarter of the season.

I wanted to create a similar statistic for pitchers, but I didn't have the data for Doubles and Triples Allowed, which was necessary to calculate Sugging Percentage Against. I contacted the Elias Sports Bureau, and they offered to sell me that information, but it was too expensive.

The end result for pitchers was to find the player who had the most similar OBP and SLG, as compared to the pitcher's OBP and SLG Allowed stats. From there, a statement could be made like 'the League bats like Brice Turang against Sonny Gray', as if each of Sonny Gray's opponents had a batting lineup of 9 Brice Turang clones. That sort of direct comparison of a pitcher's numbers to the most similar batter's performance would be interesting to me, and it might be useful in comparing one pitcher to another, when they have dissimilar 'hard stats'.

 

[maurice93]

In term of the recent pitchers with great career numbers most thew pretty hard - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Zach Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, C.C Sabathia. And of course to put up great career numbers you need to generally avoid injuries.

But to be elite you have to throw fairly hard - Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine to an extent, were unicorns of sorts.

Some guys are built for this - but many aren't. There were probably other pitchers who could have been on the same level as those names above, but suffered setbacks.

 

[maurice93]

Shoulder injury: Trey Yesavage on the injured list

My favorite pitcher was Greg Maddux. In his last 21 seasons, he pitched 200+ innings in eighteen of them, and at least 194 in the other three.

I think velocity is over rated. The pitcher's main job is to get batters out, by any means. The audience loves strikeouts, but the crowd doesn't like $30 Million a year players to miss full seasons and then some recovering from Tommy John surgery or other arm injuries. The human body was not designed to throw a baseball with control at 100 miles per hour. It can be done, but not all of the time.

Greg Maddux was a unicorn. Great intelligence (on the mound), pinpoint control, and could make the ball move.

Generally, over the course of history, you need to have strong velocity to be an elite pitcher but there are exceptions. There have been a number of greats that came up with him or since, and most threw much harder. But they were the ones that had the body to handle it, and probably didn't "push" thing like they often do now.

But I agree that injuries are out of control. People push for more and more velocity, and have been very successful at it in the past 10 years. As well as using technology to work your body to throw and harder and with more spin rate. Although they have found ways to use technology so that you can use your body and arm to throw harder and with more spin, they haven't used technology to find ways to cause less tear on the body. The only technique they have "found" is throwing less innings, especially when younger. But I'm not sure any organization is counting on a starter beyond the 6 years of salary control so they don't seem to worry about it.

That being said there are probably some "Softer throwers" who could have some success in MLB, but aren't given the chance. Maybe not the many, but certainly some and they could have more durability.

I saw a post on Twitter earlier this week, of a HS Senior who had a great season statistically in a strong league. Only throws 86, but has two great offspeed pitches. Can't sniff a D1 contract, because all they care about is velocity.

 

[maurice93]

If I recall correctly, opposing runners had a much better than average success rate stealing bases against him. @maurice93 is more likely to know something like that.

Not sure about Nolan Ryan and baserunning. It wouldn't surprise me. If you view "control" as a baseball fundamental of sorts for pitchers, then Ryan may have lacked in fundamentals, so it wouldn't surprise if he didn't focus much on base stealers. Although he could get away with it better than others, because of how he got his outs (strikeouts), which minimized the impact of stolen bags. Stolen bags + productive outs were a big thing in the 70's and 80's,

In terms of OPS - Its a pretty good statistic. OPS+ (using the 100 baseline) is my favourite way to compare players within a year, or over multiple era. But stats guys do say OPS has a few flaws, and that using WRC+ is a more precise way to measure a player offensively. But OPS+ and WRC+ tend to correlate pretty strongly... and since I can see what goes into OPS and have no clue how WRC is calculated, I just stick with OPS+.

 

[The Oracle]

In term of the recent pitchers with great career numbers most thew pretty hard - Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Zach Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, C.C Sabathia. And of course to put up great career numbers you need to generally avoid injuries.

But to be elite you have to throw fairly hard - Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine to an extent, were unicorns of sorts.

Some guys are built for this - but many aren't. There were probably other pitchers who could have been on the same level as those names above, but suffered setbacks.

Yeah I was thinking who was great and didn't throw hard...I thought of Mike Mussina at first but he did throw hard the first half of his career so thats out...Jaime Moyer had a long career and 269 wins with really soft stuff...Wasn't in the league of the pitchers mentioned here though.

 

[maurice93]

Yeah I was thinking who was great and didn't throw hard...I thought of Mike Mussina at first but he did throw hard the first half of his career so thats out...Jaime Moyer had a long career and 269 wins with really soft stuff...Wasn't in the league of the pitchers mentioned here though.

Moyer and Buerhle would probably be the best two recent examples of soft throwers who had long good careers.. Not elite, but very solid careers.

Not sure if a pitcher of that type would even get a great chance to develop in an MLB system anymore.

 

[onomatopoeia]

I saw a post on Twitter earlier this week, of a HS Senior who had a great season statistically in a strong league. Only throws 86, but has two great offspeed pitches. Can't sniff a D1 contract, because all they care about is velocity.

Moyer and Buerhle would probably be the best two recent examples of soft throwers who had long good careers.. Not elite, but very solid careers.

Not sure if a pitcher of that type would even get a great chance to develop in an MLB system anymore.

Since 1980, the only pitchers elected to the Hall of Fame who had 5.0 or fewer Strikeouts per nine innings are Jim Kaat and Jim Palmer. Catfish Hunter was close, at 5.2

I personally think it's more demoralizing to a batter if he's induced to hit a one-hopper back to the mound, as opposed to being struck out.

The successful soft-tossers are also over-represented in Gold Glove Awards. Maddux, Kaat and Buehrle have 38 between them. The fielders are more alert, when they expect that the next pitch might be hit to them.

 

[Insidious Von]

Mark Buerhrle throw hard in the 00's, he had to adjust as his velocity decreased. The Jays got the soft thrower. The White Sox won the WS with him in 2005.

The Juan Guzman throw just doesn't work, how long is Trey Yesavage expected to be on the IL?

 

[maurice93]

Mark Buerhrle throw hard in the 00's, he had to adjust as his velocity decreased. The Jays got the soft thrower. The White Sox won the WS with him in 2005.

The Juan Guzman throw just doesn't work, how long is Trey Yesavage expected to be on the IL?

Buehrle was perhaps an average thrower when he started with the Sox, but he never threw hard.

My main point was more in terms of strikeouts though. Buehrle was never a high or even average strikeout rate pitcher. That's why I'm grouping with Moyer as some of the better long term pitchers who didn't really rely on the K. Sustained success without a strong K rate is pretty rare, but Moyer and Buehrle pulled it off.

He averaged 5.1K/9 for his career. And that rate was about the same for the first, second and final third of his career.

As for Yesavage - its a unique motion so injury is a concern. Jays are certainly babying him this year whether healty or not. I do know that Justin Verlander is a guy who releases it very high (although not quite Yesavage) and injuries overall were not an issue.

 

[maurice93]

Since 1980, the only pitchers elected to the Hall of Fame who had 5.0 or fewer Strikeouts per nine innings are Jim Kaat and Jim Palmer. Catfish Hunter was close, at 5.2

I personally think it's more demoralizing to a batter if he's induced to hit a one-hopper back to the mound, as opposed to being struck out.

The successful soft-tossers are also over-represented in Gold Glove Awards. Maddux, Kaat and Buehrle have 38 between them. The fielders are more alert, when they expect that the next pitch might be hit to them.

There was a lot less strikeouts in baseball in the 70's and 80's, so I think some elite guys could get away with moderate rates around 5.0, just because the average probably wasn't that much higher. One of the things that I saw recently that surprised me is that Dave Stieb's strikeout rate was 5.1/9. For whatever reason I remembered him striking out more.

Now strikeouts are much higher, so I think a pitcher has to be at least 7 to be a viable long term good pitcher.

The thing with Maddux was that when he was at his peak he was getting on average about 7K/9, (1991-2001). He didn't have velocity, but he had the mid to strike people out when needed.

 

[maurice93]

A few posts about the Jays.

#1. Cody Ponce and Max Scherzer were both really good in the pre-season. Hopefully that extends into April. Jays have taken some hits with Bieber, Yesavage and Barrios, but there 3-4-5 starters in April 2026 should still be quite a bit better than what they were in April 2025.

#3/#4/#5 in 2025 - Bassitt / Francis / ???
#3/#4/#5 in 2026 - Scherzer / Ponce / Lauer

2025 - I think Bassitt started the year behind Berrios, and Berrios was solid for the first few months. But Bowden Francis was an absolute for 14 starts, Scherzer was out for the first half of the season, and Lauer never really settled in as a starter until late May. Jays went the first 2 months in 2025 with an abysmal #4 and #5 starter

Our #3 starter this year on paper might be a little worse, but #4 and #5 should (will) perform much better in April and May than last year. And I do think at least a couple of Bieber/Yesavage/Berrios will have 15-25 starts this year. So the rotation will be fine.

#2. Jays Farm System

Per MLB Com
Start of 2025 - #27 in baseball
Start of 2026 - #15 in baseball

Atkins finally has had some good drafts, and the system has taken a major uptick. There drafting and development of pitching the last 2 years has been outstanding - Yesavage, King, Stanifer, Stephen (Traded for Bieber)

 

[glamphotographer]

Got my Jays 10-game pack tickets. I guess the Jays' chances of winning a 3rd WS before the Leafs win the cup are greater.

 

[Insidious Von]

The Jays will win 5 WS before the Loafs get out of the first round.

The beloved Buck Martinez has retired, we will miss him dearly. After his 1985 double put out, Chuck Norris said, "wow this guy's tougher than I am".

 

[roadhog]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2035807321570349077

 

[onomatopoeia]

Three minor-leaguers who could debut with the Blue Jays in 2026

Talk about a Beer League... according to Blue Jays' catching prospect Brandon Valenzuela, about ten years ago Alejandro Kirk led the Mexican League in stolen bases.

 

[bggolfingmaniac]

Greg Maddux was a unicorn. Great intelligence (on the mound), pinpoint control, and could make the ball move.

Generally, over the course of history, you need to have strong velocity to be an elite pitcher but there are exceptions. There have been a number of greats that came up with him or since, and most threw much harder. But they were the ones that had the body to handle it, and probably didn't "push" thing like they often do now.

But I agree that injuries are out of control. People push for more and more velocity, and have been very successful at it in the past 10 years. As well as using technology to work your body to throw and harder and with more spin rate. Although they have found ways to use technology so that you can use your body and arm to throw harder and with more spin, they haven't used technology to find ways to cause less tear on the body. The only technique they have "found" is throwing less innings, especially when younger. But I'm not sure any organization is counting on a starter beyond the 6 years of salary control so they don't seem to worry about it.

That being said there are probably some "Softer throwers" who could have some success in MLB, but aren't given the chance. Maybe not the many, but certainly some and they could have more durability.

I saw a post on Twitter earlier this week, of a HS Senior who had a great season statistically in a strong league. Only throws 86, but has two great offspeed pitches. Can't sniff a D1 contract, because all they care about is velocity.

Maddox was my fav pitcher when I was in my 20s. No one painted like he did, and he did it effortlessly where catchers almost never had to frame his pitches. He also had a simple delivery that did a good job of protecting his arm. As an added bonus, we all got this classic Nike commercial
1999 Nike 'Chicks Dig the Longball' Commercial with Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and Heather Locklear

 

[onomatopoeia]

Maddox was my fav pitcher when I was in my 20s. No one painted like he did, and he did it effortlessly where catchers almost never had to frame his pitches. He also had a simple delivery that did a good job of protecting his arm. As an added bonus, we all got this classic Nike commercial
1999 Nike 'Chicks Dig the Longball' Commercial with Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and Heather Locklear

I had the opportunity to see Maddux pitch in an Interleague game on June 17, 1997.

I checked his game logs on baseball-reference(dot)com, and that was the only time he played in Toronto. He was still playing for the Cubs in 1992, (so no World Series games against the Blue Jays), his entire career was in the National League, (so infrequent Interleague games against the Jays), and in the only other game he played against Toronto, the Jays were the road team.

I did have the opportunity to see him on TV many times, because I had WTBS Atlanta Superstation as part of my cable TV package, and there was fuck all on most stations during the summer in the 1990's, other than reruns.

 

[bggolfingmaniac]

I had the opportunity to see Maddux pitch in an Interleague game on June 17, 1997.

I checked his game logs on baseball-reference(dot)com, and that was the only time he played in Toronto. He was still playing for the Cubs in 1992, (so no World Series games against the Blue Jays), his entire career was in the National League, (so infrequent Interleague games against the Jays), and in the only other game he played against Toronto, the Jays were the road team.

I did have the opportunity to see him on TV many times, because I had WTBS Atlanta Superstation as part of my cable TV package, and there was fuck all on most stations during the summer in the 1990's, other than reruns.

I sometimes forget just how great Atlanta pitching was in the early 90s - Glavine, Smoltz, Avery then added Maddox.

 

[Toronto Passions]

I sometimes forget just how great Atlanta pitching was in the early 90s - Glavine, Smoltz, Avery then added Maddox.

These pitchers were great. But I wonder how they would have done in today's game with an electronically data inputed strike zone. These pitchers from 90s Atlanta, they worked the corner and they all gained a reputation with the umpires for getting the call when they hit their spot… those benefits from reputation would give them 6 inches off the plate at times lol. In today's game, I wonder how many of those pitches would've been called balls with hitters ultimately just laying off. I shouldn't include Steve Avery with that… From what I remember, he worked up and down for the most part and changed speeds very well.

Philip

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Gausman starting pitcher for friday's season opener