Is everything an asset bubble?

[southpaw]

New to this section. I may not be as sophisticated as the rest of you. One thread says the equity market crash is coming. Another says the housing market crash is coming.

So my question is, if everything's in a bubble that's about to pop, shouldn't we be preparing for ... deflation?

 

[barnacler]

New to this section. I may not be as sophisticated as the rest of you. One thread says the equity market crash is coming. Another says the housing market crash is coming.

So my question is, if everything's in a bubble that's about to pop, shouldn't we be preparing for ... deflation?

Not everything. In fact, according to economics, if some thigs are overvalued, then by definition some things must be undervalued.

 

[sprite09]

New to this section. I may not be as sophisticated as the rest of you. One thread says the equity market crash is coming. Another says the housing market crash is coming.

So my question is, if everything's in a bubble that's about to pop, shouldn't we be preparing for ... deflation?

the crash will happen when there's complete euphoria

we're not at the point yet...i suspect it'll later this year or early 2026

lots of people are still in money market

 

[southpaw]

Not everything. In fact, according to economics, if some thigs are overvalued, then by definition some things must be undervalued.

Fair enough. So what are the things that are undervalued?

 

[barnacler]

Fair enough. So what are the things that are undervalued?

Well, one can make educated choices about that, but one can still be wrong.

Generally you are looking for something that is hated, out of favour.

I suppose Oil and Gas might fit that bill. Other resources too. Some European stocks are cheap, as are emerging markets. Stocks related to construction, materials, some financials. There must be more.

But you have to do your own homework.

 

[DesRicardo]

New to this section. I may not be as sophisticated as the rest of you. One thread says the equity market crash is coming. Another says the housing market crash is coming.

So my question is, if everything's in a bubble that's about to pop, shouldn't we be preparing for ... deflation?

In theory yes everything can be a bubble.

In reality not really because of scarcity.

 

[stinkynuts]

Everything is overvalued: stocks, gold, real estate.

The single most important factor determining the direction of asset prices is global liquidity. How much free money is available for spending and investing. This follows a predictable cycle, and it should peak this fall.

So even though things are overpriced, assets should continue to go higher. It’s a good idea to start hoarding cash later thus year to prepare for the inevitable downturn, especially with the AI hype dying down , the Chinese economy slowing, the very tumultuous geopolitical environment, and the unpredictability of Trump’s policies.

 

[sprite09]

Everything is overvalued: stocks, gold, real estate.

The single most important factor determining the direction of asset prices is global inflation liquidity. How much free money is available for spending and investing. This follows a predictable cycle, and it should peak this fall.

So even though things are overpriced, assets should continue to go higher. It’s a good idea to start hoarding cash later thus year to prepare for the inevitable downturn, especially with the AI hype dying down , the Chinese economy slowing, the very tumultuous geopolitical environment, and the unpredictability of Trump’s policies.

it is following the 18.6 yr cycle, if you start 2008

concur the risk on markets like stocks and crypto are likely to top out towards the end of this yr or early next yr

 

[jalimon]

i see a dot com effect bubble with AI.

AI is huge and will be disruptive so we will see a lot of up and coming companies that will crash.

Even google is afraid. I mean personally i have replace google search completely. AI is more powerful.

 

[southpaw]

It’s a good idea to start hoarding cash later thus year to prepare for the inevitable downturn

That was my question. You only hoard cash if you think it's value will increase, relative to other assets. Hence, deflation.

Shall I expect SP rates to come down? I've never seen that happen before.

 

[faveone]

The one thing that I see undervalued is silver. Gold has broken out and will probably see 3000 this year but silver will be the big winner

 

[oil&gas]

the crash will happen when there's complete euphoria

When the crash hits pretty much everything in the market
other than cash (fixed income investment like T-bills included)
will become an asset bubble to be bursted before you can
cash out.

If crash can be ruled out I see most most resource commodities
including oil, gas, uranium, fertilizers and base metals in general
to be attractively valued.