IMHO I think the economy will be slow for the next five years. The politicians will not let it get bad until after the American and Canadian elections. There will be the big scare coming where it will look like the end of the world has come after that there will be a slow recovery only to have many ups and downs for years. The US and Canadian population is too confident that the government will take care of us. We will never see pandemic style stimulus again. If there is any stimulus it will be silent invisible stimulus to business and industry. When we see bad job numbers businesses closing up, that is when reality sets in. I am starting to see empty stores. Retailers are not carrying inventory. People are not buying new or used cars, banks are not giving out loans as easily these days. There is little consumer confidence. People only buy what they need, luxuries are not a priority.
On the matter of the markets. As I said, there may be a big scare coming. What I mean by that is that at the first signs that the economy is stagnant there may be a contagion of panic that might bring the markets down 25-30%. This may be a good thing as the markets have been over valued for a while and the panic might bring it back to realistic levels. Personally, I have stopped buying on the markets for now but I still watch it very closely. My observations are that the profits to be had these days are much smaller and take longer to achieve and are much harder to predict.
An old adage is : If you play the markets, be a bear, be a bull, but don't be a pig. ( or U-man ) The conditions on the market are not easy now, wait for better times. Watch the big financial institutions. If they are in the game the volumes will pick up. This will be signs of better times. 2024 will be a time of transition, 2025-2026 will be times of slow recovery.
