otherwise I see no reason to go on 4th and 2 on your own 30 with a 6 point lead. That must have been the worst call I've seen in a long, long time. I had the Pats +3 so I don't care if they win or lose but that was such a huge bonehead play. And why do you throw it short?!?
He must have put $$$ on the Colts
- Thread starter freestuff
- Start date
I lost $300 since I bet the Pats to win Straight up. I should have taken the +1 on NE but I got greedy. I understand Belichick wanted to run out the clock and prevent Manning to get the ball back but the gamble lost. I mean Manning might have marched down the field 80 yards anyway but it would have been a lot harder. Piss me off. $300 would have got me a 1hr session with Daphne or Angelique!!!
The call was the right one...
"Nov 16, 2009
Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash."
The spot by the Side Judge was susect. Belichick has his guys convinced that 4th down is really third down. An important mindset that instills confindence in his team. Belichick goes on 4th down almost more than any other coach, and from anywhere on the field and has about an 80% success rate.
If he gave the ball back to Indy with 2 minutes left the outcome would have been the same.
The real question is why did Brady take a time out when they were beginning that drive after having just taken the ensuing kick. That wasted time out could have been used to challenge the spot.
Here are the links to the quote....
http://http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
http://http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html
"Nov 16, 2009
Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash."
The spot by the Side Judge was susect. Belichick has his guys convinced that 4th down is really third down. An important mindset that instills confindence in his team. Belichick goes on 4th down almost more than any other coach, and from anywhere on the field and has about an 80% success rate.
If he gave the ball back to Indy with 2 minutes left the outcome would have been the same.
The real question is why did Brady take a time out when they were beginning that drive after having just taken the ensuing kick. That wasted time out could have been used to challenge the spot.
Here are the links to the quote....
http://http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
http://http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html
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Nope they had no TO's left.They still had 1 timeout left as they used one early in the 2nd half, the other late right after a change of possession.
Loved how they asked the surviving HOF QB's who's the best and like 90% went with Peyton.
They used 2 TO's on their last posession....one right at the start after receiving the KO and then another after 3rd down to discuss the decision to go for it.
Which is why they couldnt challenge the spot on 4th down.
Kickoff Pat McAfee kicks 70 yards from Ind30 to NE0, TOUCHBACK.
1st-10-NE20 Time Out New England Patriots timeout.
1st-10-NE20 Rush Kevin Faulk up the Middle to NE20 for no gain
2nd-10-NE20 Time Out Indianapolis Colts timeout.
2nd-10-NE20 Pass Tom Brady Pass to Wes Welker to NE28 for 8 yards
3rd-2-NE28 Time Out Indianapolis Colts timeout.
3rd-2-NE28 Incomplete Pass Tom Brady Pass Incomplete to Wes Welker
4th-2-NE28 Time Out New England Patriots timeout.
4th-2-NE28 Pass Tom Brady Pass to Kevin Faulk to NE29 for 1 yard
Found this ....bearing in mind that the stat is for 4th and 2 or shorter only.
ESPN Stats & Information dug through the archives and found that entering Sunday's game, the Patriots had converted a fourth-and-2 or shorter 33 out of 52 times (63.5 percent) since 2001, Brady's first year as a starter.
So my 80% claim was a little off but nonetheless, still the right call.
Maybe if they hadnt of used the TO to discuss it, not put the punt team on the field and just lined up and run the play on 4th, it may have caught the Colts with their pants down.
And also, not saying they discussed this at all, but considering that if they did indeed miss the 4th down, as did happen, it was a possibility that the Colts may have fucked up and scored too quickly, leaving the Pats enough time to go and get a FG to win the game.
ESPN Stats & Information dug through the archives and found that entering Sunday's game, the Patriots had converted a fourth-and-2 or shorter 33 out of 52 times (63.5 percent) since 2001, Brady's first year as a starter.
So my 80% claim was a little off but nonetheless, still the right call.
Maybe if they hadnt of used the TO to discuss it, not put the punt team on the field and just lined up and run the play on 4th, it may have caught the Colts with their pants down.
And also, not saying they discussed this at all, but considering that if they did indeed miss the 4th down, as did happen, it was a possibility that the Colts may have fucked up and scored too quickly, leaving the Pats enough time to go and get a FG to win the game.
So, according to your stats, they had a 63% chance of making that first down, and a 70% chance of stopping the Colts if they were to punt.
Belichick let his ego get in the way. Poor decision to say the least, even if they make it. For all those defending the decision, answer me this: Why doesn't he go one fourth and 2, regardless of who / when they are playing, during the entire season?
Belichick let his ego get in the way. Poor decision to say the least, even if they make it. For all those defending the decision, answer me this: Why doesn't he go one fourth and 2, regardless of who / when they are playing, during the entire season?
The first stats quoted from use WP (winning probability) or does the play lead to winning the game, and from their formulas the 4th and 2 play had a WP of .79 and a punt .70.
I don't care what the numbers or probability says, it was a ridiculous call. You have to look at what happens if you don't make it. Give Manning the ball at your 29 with 2 min warning coming up and a timeout? Ludicrous. What's the probability he won't score a TD from there? At least if you punt it away he has to go 70 or 80 yards against the clock and earn the win, which was no gimme the way the Colts were playing (no TDs on 5 of previous 7 possessions). This way, it was gift wrapped for him. He actually had to waste time in order not to give the Pats the ball back with too much time left so they could score. Absolutely brutal call.
