That is a relatively linear progression on a linear scale. By definition, that is not Moore's Law as Moore's Law would be exponential on a linear scale and only appears linear on a logarithmic scale.
I no longer know what point you're trying to make as you're presenting evidence that demonstrates my point: Moore's Law applies to transistor density on integrated circuits and in no way can you assume AI power will double every 2 years in accordance with it.
It's an extrapolation of How systems work. Many systems until they hit a plateau Follow exponetial growth. There are 5 laws of my system that are basically indical to moores in other fields.
In sum, Moore's Law was never a hard-and-fast rule, but rather a guiding observation of technological trends. Its broader impact, as you’ve implied, can be seen in various sectors where growth patterns follow similar trajectories, albeit influenced by evolving market needs and limitations.
"Cramming more components onto integrated circuits" inspired the law That's strictly speaking he never invented such a law. he noticed a patern , others bulit models from tht observations.
There is every reason to believe that If AI Can help with AI The growth will be faster. AI has already Inventing things we've never Been able to do on ourselves. For example converting dreams into Watchable movies By reading the brain scans. Learning The language of whales etc. Add the quantum element to ai I would suspect a sizable jump.
That's strictly yes. The average might be A double in every 3 weeks for all wr know. It could also be a dead end. I believe under the current model it is a deed end but who knows?
We are certainly seeing the same race Among competitors That produced morores law, Which I believe is where the real action is. The focus of brain power on a specific goal.
The development of nuclear weapons and semiconductor technology both followed rapid, exponential growth in their early phases, driven by innovation and competition, such as the Manhattan Project for nuclear weapons and the rise of Silicon Valley for semiconductors. Over time, both fields plateaued as physical and strategic limits were reached, with focus shifting from increasing raw capabilities to refining existing designs and optimizing performance. Just as Moore's Law slowed as transistor miniaturization hit limits, nuclear weapons development slowed after the Cold War, with emphasis on deterrence, arms control, and non-proliferation. Both fields then moved toward specialized applications, with semiconductors advancing into AI and nuclear weapons focusing on strategic defense and security.
Ultimately it is my argument that Moore's law is A psychological one. The fax machine was invented over 100 years ago... But the psychological Was too much ... There was no value in it.
Radio shack started selling Video phones In the early 1,970s. It wasn't until people had phones And it was put on as a free ad on That video calls actually caught on. There appears to be some psychological limit On both ends of the scale. Progress is too slow and you don't get any money towards it. Progress it's too fast and it appears Progress is too fast and it appears to be fantasy. The 486 chip Was actually Purposely Damaged To allow A chip that was slightly better than the 386 To limit the jump ... Add make more money.
Obviously real physics puts a hard limit...
You're talking engineering I'm mostly talking psychological.
But your right, The list of laws of Only show us the early progress Tends o follow Some kind of exponential function.
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- In the early stages of development (e.g., the first few years or decades of a field), growth often follows exponential growth, with rapid, accelerating progress. This is when new technologies or innovations are first introduced, leading to a period of rapid improvement and discovery.
- The rate of growth during this phase typically scales up quickly, often driven by factors like:
- Technological breakthroughs: Innovations that open new possibilities.
- Increased investment: Funding and resources pour into promising fields.
- Market demand: Early adopters drive the growth.
- Fields like computing (Moore's Law), artificial intelligence, and communications (e.g., smartphones) saw rapid advancements in this phase.
- Pattern in Rate of Growth:
- The growth rate accelerates at a steadily increasing pace.
- Doubling effect: The rate of improvement may appear to double or increase in significant leaps.