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jwmorrice

Gentleman by Profession
Jun 30, 2003
7,133
1
0
In the laboratory.
For those who are buy and hold...sweet dreams! :p

jwm

GIC Says Global Recession May Be Worst in 30 Years (Update1)

By Yoolim Lee and Liza Lin

April 21 (Bloomberg) --
Government of Singapore Investment Corp., a sovereign wealth fund that manages more than $100 billion, said the world economy may be facing its worst recession in three decades as the U.S. credit crisis spreads.

``We could be facing a recession which is longer, deeper and wider than any recession that we have encountered in the last 30 years,'' Tony Tan, deputy chairman of GIC, as the company is known, said in a speech to more than 500 employees in Singapore today.

The International Monetary Fund earlier this month cut its forecast for global economic growth this year and said there's a 25 percent chance of a world recession, citing the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression.

The world economy will expand 3.7 percent in 2008, the slowest pace since 2002, according to the IMF. In January the fund projected growth of 4.1 percent. The reduction is the third by the Washington-based lender since last July, when it predicted the world economy would cope with the U.S. credit squeeze and grow 5.2 percent this year.

GIC, set up in 1981 as the government's fund manager for Singapore's foreign reserves, has earned an annual average 9.5 percent since its inception, it said two years ago at its 25th anniversary.

``The next years may well be among the most challenging years for GIC since our establishment,'' Tan said.

GIC has invested about $18 billion in Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG as banks raise capital after writing down investments linked to the U.S. subprime market. GIC is studying an additional investment in UBS through a rights offer after the bank wrote down a further $19 billion. Tan said today the investment in the two banks is ``long term.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Yoolim Lee in Singapore at yoolim@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 20, 2008 23:39 EDT
 
jwmorrice said:
GIC has invested about $18 billion in Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG as banks raise capital after writing down investments linked to the U.S. subprime market. GIC is studying an additional investment in UBS through a rights offer after the bank wrote down a further $19 billion. Tan said today the investment in the two banks is "long term.'
If they truely believe it will be so bad, they would invest so much $$$ into trouble Citigroup & UBS, sure...
 

flyingiguana

Member
Jul 29, 2007
136
0
16
goodtime said:
If they truely believe it will be so bad, they would invest so much $$$ into trouble Citigroup & UBS, sure...
they can ride out the drop. i believe they got something like an 11% yield on their investment with citi.
 

LatinDancer

New member
Nov 28, 2006
285
0
0
The market hit bottom in March. Other than financials, big caps are reporting profit/sales growth. Financials will not stay down long - banks will just increase their fees and find other ways. B of A (BAC-NYSE) is still profitable and tier 1 cap is excellent. Even Citi (C -NYSE) will go up - all they need to do is divest some assets and the analysts will love it. National City (NCC-NYSE), the most beaten down bank in the most beaten down region in the US (Midwest) found 7 billion from investors. No way but up so I think time to buy!
 

jwmorrice

Gentleman by Profession
Jun 30, 2003
7,133
1
0
In the laboratory.
LatinDancer said:
The market hit bottom in March. Other than financials, big caps are reporting profit/sales growth. Financials will not stay down long - banks will just increase their fees and find other ways. B of A (BAC-NYSE) is still profitable and tier 1 cap is excellent. Even Citi (C -NYSE) will go up - all they need to do is divest some assets and the analysts will love it. National City (NCC-NYSE), the most beaten down bank in the most beaten down region in the US (Midwest) found 7 billion from investors. No way but up so I think time to buy!
It's my understanding that the subprime crisis has rather changed the rules in a conservative direction for US banks and that they won't be going back to being the anything goes, money making machines that they were. I guess we'll see.

jwm
 

LatinDancer

New member
Nov 28, 2006
285
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0
jwmorrice said:
It's my understanding that the subprime crisis has rather changed the rules in a conservative direction for US banks and that they won't be going back to being the anything goes, money making machines that they were. I guess we'll see.

jwm
Just found this on Blomberg.com:

"Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, facing shareholders for the first time since his appointment in December, said the credit-market contraction that saddled his bank with record losses is abating.

``We are closer to the end'' than to the beginning of the crisis, Pandit said today at the company's annual shareholder meeting, held in a ballroom of the Hilton New York in Manhattan.

Pandit, 51, and Chairman Win Bischoff stepped in to lead the biggest U.S. bank by assets following the ouster last November of Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince. Citigroup has reported more than $30 billion of writedowns on subprime mortgages, bonds and non-investment grade corporate loans, leading to the worst losses in the New York-based company's history.

Pandit's comments echo remarks by Jamie Dimon, his counterpart at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who said April 16 that the credit-market freeze is more than half over. Richard Fuld, CEO of Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. head Lloyd Blankfein and Morgan Stanley chief John Mack have offered similar assessments."

There will be dips, but the market is trending up. Also, Bank of America is going conservative on mortgages (see Marketwatch), so you are right about rules changing
 
E

enduser1

LatinDancer said:
There will be dips, but the market is trending up.
Hi Dancer,

IMHO I think it is heading up too, but.... for how long? IMHO this could be the last chance to sell. With oil zooming up pretty much in a straight line how long can the market hold up? I think the next three months should be good. That is about as far ahead as I will dare to predict!!!!!

EU
 

Berlin

New member
Jan 31, 2003
11,411
1
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``We could be facing a recession which is longer, deeper and wider than any recession that we have encountered in the last 30 years,'' Tony Tan, deputy chairman of GIC, as the company is known, said in a speech to more than 500 employees in Singapore today.

The International Monetary Fund earlier this month cut its forecast for global economic growth this year and said there's a 25 percent chance of a world recession, citing the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression.
25% chance ? Possible.


The second largest bank in UK just announced $23.9 billion share sale, largest in UK history, due to exposure to you know what.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080422/britain_rbs.html

"This is a difficult time for the financial services industry, and it has presented us with specific challenges," said Chairman Tom McKillop as RBS said it expects further write-downs of 5.9 billion pounds ($11.7 billion) on mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and other assets related to a credit crisis that has spread globally from the U.S.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that losses from the credit crunch across the banking sector worldwide could eventually reach $1 trillion.
... 1 fucking trillion. And the shit is still unfolding.

I just hope it'd only be a global economic slow down and not a big ass recession .
 

LatinDancer

New member
Nov 28, 2006
285
0
0
From CNBC today:

S&P Investment Chief: Worst for Stocks Is Over
Reuters | 22 Apr 2008 | 12:25 PM ET

"Stocks have seen the worst of the declines and are poised to head higher boosted by a spate of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and spending linked to the government's economic stimulus package, a leading equity strategist said on Tuesday.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist and chairman of the investment policy committee at Standard & Poor's, reiterated a forecast by his firm calling for the benchmark S&P 500 S&P 500 INDEX.SPX to finish 2008 at the 1,560, about 5 points shy of the index's record close set in October 2007.

"We do have a good likelihood of retracing our steps at least up to the 1,560 level," he told an investment outlook teleconference. "Much of the decline we've experienced is likely over in our opinion. We believe the worst is over and we could see the market work its way higher."


The market was down today, which was a good time to buy, but since it is trending up, I can be sure of making a profit, at the next rally if I wish to do so. In fact I bought some RIMM (Nasdaq) at 119 for short time hold because when the next good news hits, it should go back to 125 which was yesterday's close. The good holds right now are potash/oil plays.
 

Gyaos

BOBA FETT
Aug 17, 2001
6,172
0
0
Heaven, definately Heaven
Berlin said:
I just hope it`d only be a global economic slow down and not a big ass recession.
It`s going to be a big ass recession. Credit cards are in itself a reverse depression. Money that never existed and banks won`t be able to get it back (like Japan in the late 80`s and 90`s). During the US Depression, the banks wouldn`t give anyone money creating the FDIC Insurance, which is just the government printing cash to cover everyone`s asses if banks (guess what) don`t have any money.

It`s going like this: USA first, then Japan and Korea, then the UK and Canada, then Europe, then Southeast Asia and Hong Kong, then eventually China and India (as they won`t be able to sell to the USA).

Only Iraq will be a bull economy.

The pundits on CNBC and Bloomberg will say "oh, it`s all over", just to keep viewers and sell ad space. I`m sure there`s no way CNBC and Bloomberg should make more advertising money that https://terb.cc, or TERB should be getting what CNBC is getting. Am I right about that, guys and gals?

The good news, after maybe a decade of being stagnant, Japan eventually came out of their recession with people having this massive cash economy where people can buy $280,000 sports cars and drive them safely `til there`s an earthquake.

Now that`s what I want and am going for. The ultimate cash economy with women with too much cash, they just have to suck my cock! Just need a wallet big enough for all that money and fuck the credit cards.

Gyaos Baltar.
 

S.C. Joe

Client # 13
Nov 2, 2007
7,146
1
0
Detroit, USA
What the guy saids :D but what about the reward points ??? Best to use the cards, rake the points up and pay the bill off every month.
 

markvee

Active member
Mar 18, 2003
1,760
0
36
54
Gyaos said:
It's going like this: USA first, then Japan and Korea, then the UK and Canada, then Europe, then Southeast Asia and Hong Kong, then eventually China and India (as they won't be able to sell to the USA).
If China and India won't be able to sell to the USA, what is to stop China and India from trading with each other?
 

21pro

Crotch Sniffer
Oct 22, 2003
7,830
1
0
Caledon East
i'm a buy and holder... and i don't think i'll get less than 12% aror over the next 30 years as an average anyway you slice it.

i've already proven to average over 25% during the last 10... with only investing in high yield bond funds for the next 20, getting 8% i'll still beat 12%. i'll gladly stay in my higher return equities, though.

i think that article is bs.
 

flyingiguana

Member
Jul 29, 2007
136
0
16
LatinDancer said:
The market hit bottom in March. Other than financials, big caps are reporting profit/sales growth. Financials will not stay down long - banks will just increase their fees and find other ways. B of A (BAC-NYSE) is still profitable and tier 1 cap is excellent. Even Citi (C -NYSE) will go up - all they need to do is divest some assets and the analysts will love it. National City (NCC-NYSE), the most beaten down bank in the most beaten down region in the US (Midwest) found 7 billion from investors. No way but up so I think time to buy!
there are more resets this year and home prices should drop another 10% at least. meaning more people walking away from homes and more writedowns. it usually takes more than a year to clear up an overleveraged economy. consumer spending will drop off over the next 6 months leading to big caps having margin pressures.
 

flyingiguana

Member
Jul 29, 2007
136
0
16
markvee said:
If China and India won't be able to sell to the USA, what is to stop China and India from trading with each other?
well china buys US debt so that the US can continue buying chinese goods. meanwhile the US is growing money supply at double digits. it will just cause inflation to jump in both countries. india is on better ground though.
 
Gyaos said:
It's going like this: USA first, then Japan and Korea, then the UK and Canada, then Europe, then Southeast Asia and Hong Kong, then eventually China and India (as they won't be able to sell to the USA).
...
The good news, after maybe a decade of being stagnant, Japan eventually came out of their recession with people having this massive cash economy where people can buy $280,000 sports cars and drive them safely 'til there's an earthquake.
Took Japan decade to get out of it as public with negative outlook. Japanese were putting away yens under the mattress instead of spend.

Meanwhile CDN are spending, confident with economy, according to last poll.
As are EU, German & French leading the charge.
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/thematic_articles/article12054_en.htm
As long as Chinese don't clamp down on financial market, their middle class will continue to buy cars.
In US, Apple ipods & Macbook Air record sale.
 

JohnLarue

Well-known member
Jan 19, 2005
16,725
2,377
113
markvee said:
If China and India won't be able to sell to the USA, what is to stop China and India from trading with each other?
They can & probably do to a certain extent, but they hate & mistrust each other.
Also they make sales to the USA based upon cheap labor, so they do not have a competitive advantage relative to each other in many markets.
India is more service orientated ie call centers & IT, while china is very strong in inexpensive manufactured goods

Can you imagine a Chinese consumer calling to complain about the product he bought speaking to an Indian call center rep trying to speaking in Mandarin?
No accent issue there
 

Berlin

New member
Jan 31, 2003
11,411
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JohnLarue said:
Can you imagine a Chinese consumer calling to complain about the product he bought speaking to an Indian call center rep trying to speaking in Mandarin?

No accent issue there
Haven't met any Indian that speaks fluent Mandarin but I'm sure there are. I personally know and have met a quite a few in Hong Kong and here that speak fluent Cantonese though.

For those who understand Cantonese, here is a non Chinese stand up comedian in Hong Kong , quite true and funny shit

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bvns0o819I

More than 250,000 view.

Sorry J, going off track a bit here.
 

Berlin

New member
Jan 31, 2003
11,411
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Buffett says recession may be worse than feared

... from the man himself. Not a very positive outlook though the key word here is again may be.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080428/bs_nm/buffett_recession_dc


Buffett made his comments on CNBC television after his Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) (BRKb.N) agreed to invest $6.5 billion in the takeover of chewing gum maker Wm Wrigley Jr Co (WWY.N) by Mars Inc in a $23 billion transaction.

"This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think," Buffett said. "This will not be short and shallow.

"I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices," he added, "and not feeling they've got a lot of money for other things."
"In the retail businesses ... if anything, they've gotten a little worse," Buffett said. "Of course, things connected with housing, whether it's in brick or whether it's in carpet, those businesses have shown no uptick at all. Jewelry had a bad Christmas ... and it stayed that way."

Buffett sees no respite from the housing slump.

"I think this is going to be fairly long and fairly deep, but who knows," he said.
 
bbking said:
... he is a value investor ... if he really thought the US was going into a real long term down cycle ... he wouldn't have invested billions into candy
Or kept shares of Dairy Queen, See's candy, Moody's, Suntrust, US Bancorp, Wells Fargo, BNSF...
 
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