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End Game for Libya ?

james t kirk

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Aug 17, 2001
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The west should have NEVER gone in there.

If the Libyans can't over throw Gaddafi themselves, then too bad, so sad. The whole thing is a giant cluster fuck. I marvel at how "Democracy Protestors" suddenly have access to tanks and Surface to Air Missiles. Yeah, that makes sense.

And everyone knows that they will simply replace one mad-man with another mad-man. Ditto Egypt, Syria, and everywhere else in the middle east. It's all they understand, it's all they know, it's all they want.
 

seth gecko

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Nov 2, 2003
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Hey Fred Zed: I'll take that bet - wayyyyyy to optimistic/ambitious timeframe to finish off Curly. When (or if) he finally does go, the TNC will probably break down and the different factions start infighting amongst themselves for the top job. These things are not easy to forecast, but thats pretty much the consensus amongst the analysts.
 

scouser1

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Dec 7, 2001
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the sooner Mommar is hanging by a rope from a lampost in Tripoli the better off for the Libyan people, as for idiots like you James who seem to think that only Westerners are capable of handling democracy, well thats what dictators also say, and as for how they get their hands on tanks and missiles? well dumb ass when someone is shooting at you, wouldnt you want to eventually shoot back?
 

seth gecko

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Nov 2, 2003
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The group that is most threatening & most likely to eventually take down Curly are the Berber rebels from the western region of the country, not the Benghazi-based rebels who've gotten the publicity & NATO support. Khaddafy's pretty much done for (I still think before the end of August is too optimistic), but ground developments now could set the stage for a potential conflict between the various rebel factions. Everyones best case scenario of Libya being a better place once Colonel Q is gone could very well never materialize as the country splits in a west-east civil war. It may end up that the average Libyan looks back on the Qadaffi era and says to himself "it wasn't so bad". Think post-Tito breakup of Yugoslavia..........
 

omegaphallic

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Mar 26, 2010
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The group that is most threatening & most likely to eventually take down Curly are the Berber rebels from the western region of the country, not the Benghazi-based rebels who've gotten the publicity & NATO support. Khaddafy's pretty much done for (I still think before the end of August is too optimistic), but ground developments now could set the stage for a potential conflict between the various rebel factions. Everyones best case scenario of Libya being a better place once Colonel Q is gone could very well never materialize as the country splits in a west-east civil war. It may end up that the average Libyan looks back on the Qadaffi era and says to himself "it wasn't so bad". Think post-Tito breakup of Yugoslavia..........
Actually I have a serbian friend who remembers Tito and communism fondly. According to him you could even legally buy porn back then which surprised me. Yugoslavia's economy was also much better back then and all the racial fighting and bullshit did not happen.

I normally don't like communist leaders, most are fools, hypocrits, or out of touch with the dreams of the people they supposedly fight for, but Tito was the only communist leader I had respect for (to be fair castro has his points, but he is still very flawed) and I can help but think that China's economically successful leaders probably have more in common with Tito then that hypocritical loser Mao. Not a communist, but that is just my take on Tito.
 

seth gecko

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Nov 2, 2003
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Actually I have a serbian friend who remembers Tito and communism fondly. According to him you could even legally buy porn back then which surprised me. Yugoslavia's economy was also much better back then and all the racial fighting and bullshit did not happen.

I normally don't like communist leaders, most are fools, hypocrits, or out of touch with the dreams of the people they supposedly fight for, but Tito was the only communist leader I had respect for (to be fair castro has his points, but he is still very flawed) and I can help but think that China's economically successful leaders probably have more in common with Tito then that hypocritical loser Mao. Not a communist, but that is just my take on Tito.
This article also describes what we've just discussed..................PS - Happy Anniversary, Commies!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/19/world/europe/19russia.html?_r=1&ref=world
 

Sniper Jr.

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Sep 24, 2005
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It may end up that the average Libyan looks back on the Qadaffi era and says to himself "it wasn't so bad". Think post-Tito breakup of Yugoslavia..........
Or post-Saddam Iraq. I would think many Iraqis look back fondly at the pre-2003 era. It amazes me that western governments, even the ones that were smart enough to stay out of Iraq, have haven't learned from such a similar situation that happened so recently.
 

seth gecko

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Nov 2, 2003
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Or post-Saddam Iraq. I would think many Iraqis look back fondly at the pre-2003 era. It amazes me that western governments, even the ones that were smart enough to stay out of Iraq, have haven't learned from such a similar situation that happened so recently.
That is a pretty good example - security has deteriorated, violence has hugely escalated, but on the bright side, people can vote in elections.........hmmmmmmm.
Libya had one of the highest (if not THE highest) standard of living in all of Africa under Ghaddafy. Will that still be the case five years into the TNC gov't (or whoever replaces him)?
 

Asterix

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Aug 6, 2002
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They aren't there yet. If Gadiffi chooses to stay, Tripoli will be a pretty hard nut to crack. And it could get pretty ugly.
 

blackrock13

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Jun 6, 2009
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They aren't there yet. If Gadiffi chooses to stay, Tripoli will be a pretty hard nut to crack.
Unless his brothers turn on him. I wouldn't be surprised if he was in some Beduin tent in the desert. Addressing his people by phone seemed to be a really strange thing to do.
 

WoodPeckr

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May 29, 2002
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Libya had one of the highest (if not THE highest) standard of living in all of Africa under Ghaddafy. Will that still be the case five years into the TNC gov't (or whoever replaces him)?
Most likely Libya will end up looking like Iraq, Afghanistan, or possibly even Somalia. It's amazing how well our spreading of freedom & democracy has 'helped' these countries ..:eyebrows:
 

alexmst

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Dec 27, 2004
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Most likely Libya will end up looking like Iraq, Afghanistan, or possibly even Somalia. It's amazing how well our spreading of freedom & democracy has 'helped' these countries ..:eyebrows:
The UK-led move to intervene was all about revenge over the handling of the Lockerbie bomber's return to Libya and welcoming parade that made the UK government look like fools, esp to the U.S. It is payback. It is naive to think the timing was co-incidental and all of a sudden the UK was concerned about democracy in Libya out of the blue. The rebels were useless without NATO air support, and had it not increased far beyond the UN mandate to basically make RAF stand for the 'Rebel Air Force', the rebels would have all been lined up against a wall as traitors and shot in their defeated city of rebellion long ago by government forces, which would have made the UK look like fools again, since they backed/encouraged this rebel coup/revolution in the first place. Ah, international politics and diplomacy...
 

WoodPeckr

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.... which would have made the UK look like fools again, since they backed/encouraged this rebel coup/revolution in the first place. Ah, international politics and diplomacy...
All very true.
Was just putting a US 'spin' on it more to the liking of our myopic friends on the right here in the USA...;)
 

seth gecko

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Nov 2, 2003
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Its the Western rebels, the Berbers from the Nafusa Mtns, who've made these recent & pretty impressive advances on the Gov't forces. The eastern, Benghazi-based rebels have pretty much stalled for the past few months. Both groups are make up the TNC, along with a few other smaller regional/tribal rebel groups.
The Berbers have been receiving weapons, training & advisors from France for the past few months; the weapons are said to include rocket launchers and anti tank missiles, heavy machine guns and even an APC!
 

nottyboi

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May 14, 2008
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What I find kinda interesting is that oil prices are falling even though about 1.4M bbl/day of Libyan oil is off the market right now
 

seth gecko

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What I find kinda interesting is that oil prices are falling even though about 1.4M bbl/day of Libyan oil is off the market right now
NATO isn't working for free here. Someone will have to foot the bill for the operation. Just a guess on my part, and I'm probably being a bit cynical, but theres probably been contracts with the rebels to repay the associaited costs via oil, at a predetermined price (probably a lowball price).
 

Don

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Aug 23, 2001
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All very true.
Was just putting a US 'spin' on it more to the liking of our myopic friends on the right here in the USA...;)
It's always about yourselves, isn't it. Maybe that's why the rest of the world is tired of "y'all"
 
Ashley Madison
Toronto Escorts