Do the Leafs still suck?

[Ranger68]

That's pretty weak - and doesn't support your conclusion very strongly - that would be called, in statistical terms, "very weak support".
Also, you clearly don't understand that the Leafs, to this point, haven't even played ten games. This is called a "small sample size".

 

[champ]

Doesn't Prove Your Point

21pro,

Your statement was that no one would ever win the Stanley Cup being outshot like the Leafs currently are. Can't see the exact numbers from here.

Your body of evidence was small and extremely slanted.

You only provided the Shots on Goal from the finals.

What were the shots on goal versus allowed of every Stanley cup winner as an average for the entire season and the entire playoffs? Your sample size only includes the final.

How do we know that the expamples you provided did not have remarkably different SOG for vs SOG allowed during the regular season?

I am not saying that you are wrong. In fact your assumption seems pretty logical.

The burden of proof remains in your corner though.

Just my 2 cents.

Champ

 

[21pro]

sorry guys...

it actually takes alot of statistical research to cover all grounds.

it is my opinion that my argument still stands.

one thing i do know, is that i am more confident in finding evidence to support my stance than anyone can offer that differs with actual proof.

now, that doesn't make me right... only Chretien would be right about something like that, when he said the u.s. had proof of iraq manufacturing weapons of mass destruction.

"A proof is a proof. What kind of a proof? It's a proof. A proof is a proof. And when you have a good proof, it's because it's proven."

I would actually have to recalculate the average shots for/against for every team that ever won the stanley cup... for each game... it is a false calculation to take the season average and playoff average for every team/every year... these stats are readily available, but not a true average at all... again, alot of work. but, you guys are determined to make me spend my valuable time pulling my hair out, don't you... that's fine. i respect the quest for true knowledge. i just might not be the guy to spend all this time compiling data... yes, i may be dogmatic... the challenge is to you to find a statistic that destroys what i believe.

but from breifly looking over the stats I do have.... there isn't anything to prove my statement wrong.

 

[21pro]

the Leafs, to this point, haven't even played ten games. This is called a "small sample size".

but, every year they get outshot. i'm simply stating that it is my opinion that it is something that they should address if they want post season success (i'm sure they do) and it is an easy thing to improve upon if they so desire and apply the right training methods.

back when i coached hockey, i was horrible at selecting the best team... best talent, maybe i was good at, but, my team would always have the worst shots differential for the first half of the season. well all but 2 years that i had strong teams... i was easily able to improve the shots differential in every year i coached. i was no Quinn, just a simple volunteer minor hockey coach that applied the basics in practice.

 

[A-ROD]

I think it is logical... what 21Pro is saying. The law of averages dictates, that if you are being outshot consistently then you will more than likely be outscored consistently.

 

[champ]

21pro,

I have to say that I lean towards your thoughts on the glaring issue of the Leafs being outshot. It is highly unlikely that they can compete in the longer term if this statistical anomoly were to continue.

As I said in my earlier post I think that you are right.

I also believe that the reason you have been challenged here is because you spoke in the absolute:

"No team has ever one ..."

I think you probably wanted to say:

"The Leafs can't possibly win the Stanley Cup if they continue to be outshot as they have".

That is an opinion and one that has merit and really wouldn't be stronly contested because it is in fact ... an opinion. One that I would not challenge.

Talking in absolutes as you did leaves you open to providing the burden of proof. Respectfully, I take exception to you saying that we have to prove to you that you are wrong. The dynamic of the debate does not work that way. One cannot make wide sweeping statements that are in the absolute and then step back and say "I am right ... prove me wrong".

Again, respectfully. I believe your approach actually brings into question the credibility of your position and it shouldn't.

You say that you were pushed to provide proof and that we wanted you to go to the end of the earth to find more. You could have saved yourself time and trouble by just saying "they will not win the Cup with a shots on goal vs allowed variance like that".

Regards,

Champ

 

[Ranger68]

but from breifly looking over the stats I do have.... there isn't anything to prove my statement wrong.

Uhh ... you have to prove your statement RIGHT, or else people are free to disagree with it at will, and there really isn't anything you can say back, other than "nuh-uh!".

 

[Ranger68]

but, every year they get outshot. i'm simply stating that it is my opinion that it is something that they should address if they want post season success (i'm sure they do) and it is an easy thing to improve upon if they so desire and apply the right training methods.

back when i coached hockey, i was horrible at selecting the best team... best talent, maybe i was good at, but, my team would always have the worst shots differential for the first half of the season. well all but 2 years that i had strong teams... i was easily able to improve the shots differential in every year i coached. i was no Quinn, just a simple volunteer minor hockey coach that applied the basics in practice.

I'd think it's not as easy as you think. Teams at this high level aren't easily improved by practice or training. It's more to do with native skill and coaching strategy. The Leafs have been somewhat successful doing what they're doing, so Quinn sees no reason to change.

 

[Ranger68]

I think it is logical... what 21Pro is saying. The law of averages dictates, that if you are being outshot consistently then you will more than likely be outscored consistently.

This totally ignores goaltending, of course.
Which the Leafs usually have covered pretty well.
There is no "law of averages" in play. Factor in shots against and goalie save percentage and you will get goals allowed. If your goals for is higher than your goals allowed (which it is very consistently for the Leafs), you will win more than you lose. The bigger the difference, the better. If the Leafs could allow fewer shots, they'd win more games and by bigger margins.
It ain't that easy. This team, front and back, isn't strong defensively. They rely upon goaltending more than many other teams.

 

[21pro]

The Leafs have been somewhat successful doing what
they're doing, so Quinn sees no reason to change.

yes.. and that echos the sentiment of the whole organization over the last 37 years... they seem fine with the status quo.

i'm not.

i'd like to see them do better. i feel that it is a shame that the one NHL team that perhaps has the largest group of devoted fan following 'nuts', with one of the healthiest business balance sheets in the NHL, the highest priced tickets in the NHL... cannot even show us stanley cup final action. or atleast be the number 1 contender. not every year, maybe just once or twice every 7-10 years would be nice. as you can see, i'm not even asking for a dynasty. just give something back to the loyal fans.

However,
a few good things the leafs have done this year was.. first, they are off to a good start. (only 1 loss), also they shopped to get 'shooters' on their team(O'Neil and Lindros both led respective teams in shots in previous years) and also, they should let Darcy Tucker play 'his' game. Ever since coming to the leafs, Darcy has been typecasted as a mucker, dump and chaser, checker, whatever you wanna call him. That's not what he was drafted for. In 1994-1995 he led the WHL in SHOTS! ... he also scored 64 goals in 64 games...

 

[21pro]

HELLO! We are only five games into the season, sheesh. Toronto has the potential,... I am sure they still put a scare into any of the so called favourites Ottawa included. Go Leafs Go.

yep. the sens look yellow tonight, that's for sure.