Read it and weep: This pipeline agreement is a document of betrayal
Arno Kopecky
November 28th 2025
For months, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s courtship of Alberta and the oil patch has been the subject of conspiratorial interpretation by his friends and foes alike. Carney’s only pretending to want a new pipeline, the story goes. But it’s all just chess: he knows BC and First Nations will never let it happen, and anyway, private industry will never commit the untold billions it would cost to build a greenfield pipeline in this day and age. The political genius, they say, is that by removing the regulatory obstacles his predecessor put in place, Carney’s taken the bullets out of all those guns that Conservatives have been firing at Ottawa for the last decade.
I half-believed it myself. It would have meant the prime minister was lying, directly and repeatedly; it would also have meant he was forcing the same First Nations who spent a generation fighting Northern Gateway to do so all over again, and pitting Alberta against BC yet again. But hey, politics is a dirty game, and that conspiratorial version of Carney seemed preferable to the alternative — that the man who spent a decade warning world leaders about stranded assets and carbon bubbles, who was a UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, who dedicated chapters of his book to the “biblical” consequences of unchecked emissions, could just… say “fuck it.”
But he did. The only way to read the memorandum of understanding (MOU) is that Carney has meant what he’s been saying all along: he really does want this pipeline, and then some.
How to describe the laundry list of climate-killing gifts to Alberta that the MOU spells out? The depth of the betrayal goes beyond words. I felt ill as I read it. It’s not just the hard-won ground lost on climate policy, or the scale of the coming battle this document spells into view. On top of all that, there’s a sort of obscenity involved — the savage sight of a man brandishing his own abandoned values.
Let’s start with the pipeline itself.
A looming fight
Just two days before the MOU dropped, Carney declared in Question Period that “we believe the government of British Columbia has to agree. We believe that First Nations right-holders in the country have to agree.” But that language does not exist in the MOU.
Instead, Alberta commits to “offer the opportunity for Indigenous co-ownership.” The federal government and Alberta together “agree to engage meaningfully with Indigenous Peoples in both Alberta and British Columbia.”
Which Indigenous Peoples, exactly, and whose co-ownership will serve to legitimize the whole affair?
It certainly won’t be the ones whose territories encompass the impact zone — the Coastal First Nations, who have been declaring their unbreakable opposition not just for the past few months, but for two decades. Most likely, they will now be pitted directly against the National Coalition of Chiefs, a pro-oil and gas group of Alberta-based First Nations who have been advocating for an Indigenous-owned Northern Gateway 2.0.
So that’ll be fun.
Nor will Carney be leaving Alberta and the oil patch to sort the whole mess out. He’s committing the federal government’s resources to join the full court press.
Nobody knows where this will go; all we know is that a protracted, ugly and divisive battle lies ahead. For my money, Coastal First Nations and their multiple allies still have the legal upper hand. They were able to beat Northern Gateway in court when that project enjoyed 10 years of intense federal support, after all, and their powers have only grown — the Haida Nation, for instance, has full Indigenous title over its lands and waters now. But the idea that Carney might stand up for their right to say no is almost laughable now. With Bill C-5, he’s given himself the power to override Indigenous rights and title for any project deemed to be in the national interest. Former prime minister Stephen Harper tried that too, with Northern Gateway. We’ll see what the courts say next time.
The pitting of First Nations against each other, and against so much of the country, is the most stomach-churning aspect of all this. But the doublespeak on climate isn’t far behind.
‘The cleanest heavy oil’
Alberta’s press release promises to deliver the
“cleanest heavy oil on the planet,” which is like calling menthol cigarettes the best way to get lung cancer. According to Carney’s new logic, Alberta’s bitumen will be cleaned by the Pathways Alliance's massive carbon capture and storage project. The MOU makes clear that any new pipeline is predicated on carbon capture, and vice versa — the two come together, or neither comes at all. That project hopes to bury 10 to12 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. But a new pipeline moving a million-barrels per day would release over 150 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, once all that oil is burned.
In other words, a new pipeline would produce around 15 times more carbon dioxide than the Pathways Alliance could capture in a best-case scenario.
There’s no better argument against carbon capture than using it to sell a pipeline.
Dead regulations
Of course, it’s entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that these are both pipe dreams and neither one will happen. In that case, will Alberta and Ottawa simply have wasted an extraordinary amount of time, energy and political capital to divide provinces and much of the country over a debate that already tore Canada apart once, just 10 years ago?
No! Far from it. Even without a pipeline, Alberta will still walk away with a pair of dead regulations it’s long been demanding that Ottawa kill. No more clean electricity regulations, and no more oil and gas emissions cap — in exchange for an industrial carbon price that Alberta already agreed to in 2015 under the last grand bargain, and which it’s ignored ever since, despite the Supreme Court ruling that Ottawa had the jurisdiction to implement it.
Perhaps the biggest question is, how does Carney sell this to himself? Even aside from all of the above, Carney has just created a shitstorm in his own party: former environment minister Stephen Guilbeault announced his resignation within hours of the MOU going public, and there are multiple Liberal MPs, from BC and beyond, who are undoubtedly going to push back.
But maybe there’s another set of numbers that Carney is eyeing, and that’s the 42 per cent of votes that went to Conservatives in April. All of a sudden, there are high-profile, small-C conservatives across the land who are applauding this surprising new prime minister. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s goose just got even more cooked — his whole “Just. Get. Out. Of. The. Way.” shtick seems to have worked in the same way that getting Trudeau to resign before the election worked.
Poilievre may still lead the Official Opposition. But everyone knows who the real Conservative leader is now.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2025/11/27/analysis/pipeline-agreement-alberta-ottawa