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A lot still depends on the Bank of Canada. The consensus opinion seems to peg a good value for the CAD between .75-.80 USD. That seem to be the sweet spot between Resource Extraction vs Industry / IT / Tourism. The CAD may slide below .75 USD temporarily, but given our improved position WRT the USA, barring and major oddness by the Bank of Canada, it shouldn't slide below the 'irrationally low' levels of the Cretien / Martin era, and will probably float in the 'consensus range' after it recovers from the slide.toolioiep said:With certainty. With the continue slide of crude and the volatility of the markets driving people into US T-bills (thereby increasing USD demand), I can assure you that the CAD will continue to slide.
Together with everything else the hedge funds have been selling their overseasjames t kirk said:According to the Globe and Mail, the Loonie will rebound quite quickly.
http://www.reportonbusiness.com/ser...024/BNStory/Business/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
If you listen to my friend who's in the banking biz and selling American dollars right now, the loonie will also rise back in November. Something to do with Hedge funds and October.
In either case, it's not that the Loonie has fallen persay, it's that the American dollar has risen across the board. (Against the pound, Euro, Aussie dollar)
Once things settle, the structural issues associated with the US's situation will once again drive down the US dollar.
That said, a 75 cent dollar is fine by me.
- Canadian Manufacturing
- Canadian commodities
- Canadian Film industry
- Tourism
all benefit.
Imports will be slightly cheaper, but I don't thing you'll notice that much of a difference. I don't think retailers EVER passed along any savings when the dollar took off.
Nor have I seen it rise so fast when the global banks were investing their debt in commodities and getting away with it (still no arrests).Malibook said:I have never seen the Loonie fall so far so fast.
The rise was not even remotely close to being as fast as the crash.Gyaos said:Nor have I seen it rise so fast when the global banks were investing their debt in commodities and getting away with it (still no arrests).
Gyaos Baltar.
I agree. As commodites go so goes the loonie. especially, as has been pointed out, with the flight to 'quality' of equity holders where quality is percieved as US t-bills. I don't think it will reverse, significantly, until the equity market comes back(2010).toolioiep said:With certainty. With the continue slide of crude and the volatility of the markets driving people into US T-bills (thereby increasing USD demand), I can assure you that the CAD will continue to slide.
Short term yes, but medium term the BOC has the pull. While Canada's economy is 'small' compared to the US, it is still quite 'big' and comparatively diversified by global standards. Short term commodities can send the $CAD for a ride one way or another, medium term the BOC will have its' way.chiller_boy said:I agree. As commodites go so goes the loonie.
Remember that Canada is one of the few countries that have a trade/current acount surplus with a downward trending Debt/GNP ratio...even if we get into deficit to the tune of 20 billion in the next little while, that still is only about 1.5% of our GDP. Compared to most of euroland's 3+%, not to mention the US's 5%, we're not doing too shabby.The Options Menu said:Short term yes, but medium term the BOC has the pull. While Canada's economy is 'small' compared to the US, it is still quite 'big' and comparatively diversified by global standards. Short term commodities can send the $CAD for a ride one way or another, medium term the BOC will have its' way.
Frankly, there's just not much reason for real doom and gloom in Canada. Things here won't be peachy over the next little while, but by comparison we're well off. I detest the Conservatives, but I actually felt bad when Harper made the rookie mistake of aping McCain and saying, "The fundamentals are sound." It might be 'true' in our case, but he picked a hell of a bad line to borrow. Especially given how 'untrue' it is about the US.