Bush vs. Kerry .........who wins?

[onthebottom]

Bbking,

How are you feeling about that 10% margin of victory for Kerry now? USA Today reported that he got a -1% "bounce" in the polls (first time since 72 that a canidate hasn't gotten a bump from his convention. And then there was the dead cat Edwards bounce. I think this guy is out of ammo - but it's early...

OTB

 

[Girth]

Bubba said on Letterman last night that he did NOT believe the upgrade in alert status was political. Even Bubba, for crying out loud, can understand that the administration is not playing games with terrorism. Bush wins in a landslide.

Exactly!

 

[red]

in a fist fight- i'd put my money on kerry

 

[blitz]

LET"S GET READY TO RUUUMMMBBBLLLEEE!

in a fist fight- i'd put my money on kerry

To be honest I am anti Bush but here goes...

Reach advantage to Kerry

Height advantage to Kerry

Bush has a solid jaw tho, he's proven he can take a punch

Kerry's punching power is quite weak thus far

Trainers and corner men have to go to Bush

Crowd noise is mixed but pushes for Kerry

Both have good foot work and both are good on the ropes

Uhh, seems a push thus far. We'll go to the seconds...

Edwards punches Cheney in the heart

His black heart explodes and the demons escape back to hell

Kerry/Edwards win by sending Satan's succubus to the mat!

JMHO but it was fun to write

 

[red]

how about Kerry and Bush versus Saddam and Kim il Sung

 

[onthebottom]

Bush by a mile in a fight - Kerry even "throws like a girl" (quote from two kids that witnessed the Red Sox photo op.

OTB

 

[blitz]

I've seen the video a few times and I agree...

...Kerry even "throws like a girl" (quote from two kids that witnessed the Red Sox photo op.

OTB

As an anti Bush person even I felt that toss was weak. You just DON'T bounce the first pitch.

However, that Marine or whatever fatigue wearing guy was catching made it look much worse by "Bucknering" the toss.

 

[red]

edwards vs. cheney?

 

[florida]

Being American and in touch with my Republican side, I can tell you that BUSH will win. A bush in the hand is worth......

You have my vote.

 

[blitz]

...I can tell you that BUSH will win. A bush in the hand is worth......

Worth what...?

Tens of housands of innocents dead?

Thousands, keep counting it's daily, of your boys and girls dead?

Millions unemployed?

Worldwide strife?

Global distrust and distaste of your country and its values?

Internal distrust and distaste of your own government?

Yep, you're "turning the corner" down there and it's a dead end street.

God be with you 'cuz few will be while Bush et al are at the helm of your sinking ship.

I believe in a great America and that Americans will take two in the hand over your Bush.

Peace.

 

[onthebottom]

Not according to polling numbers State by State - right now Kerry has a 10 pt lead in electorial college votes if the election is held today. In fact it may end up ironic that Bush wins the popular vote this time but loses the college. Where Bush is popular he wins by a wide margin but at this time Kerry is winning the close races. I assume by your handle that you will be voting in Florida - I think your State's Republicans are going to get swamped this time.



bbk

You are dreaming. I picked Kerry in this thread you will notice but he really has nowhere to go. If picking Edwards and having a perfectly scripted convention can't yield better poll numbers I don't know what he's going to do to get votes. In the end I think the angry democrats will end up turning off the swing voters and Bush could just get through - that and the OBL capture in October ;-)

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

Come on OTB - you know as well as I do that Bush's numbers are strong only because he has such a huge lead in some States.
Right now there are 85 electoral votes in play for Bush, votes he got in the last election compared to Kerry's 25 votes that Gore got in the last election. While I agree these States can tip any way over the next 90 days, Kerry got the bounce he needed out of that convention - namely to close the gap on who can handle the War on terror better - Bush was 15pts ahead prior to the convention and as of last Tuesday he was 8 pts ahead. For an incumbent to trail a challanger at this stage of the election process is unheard of - hell even Jimmy Carter had 9pt lead over Reagan. On other thing your forgetting is the massive get out the vote campaign that the Dems are doing - I wouldn't be surprised if you guys come close or go past 60% voting.
This election won't be decided until the debates and already the GOP is trying to limit that exposure by reducing the # from 3 to 2 debates. All in all, Kerry has the ducks lined up in a neat little row.
I still say in the end Kerry wins by 10% or more (I know, I am dreaming)


bbk

What bounce was that?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-02-poll-cover_x.htm

And you have the 10 points about right, but in the wrong direction.

OTB

 

[Drunken Master]

I was a little goofy of the Dems to expect a bounce - although to be fair the only people I heard talking about a bounce were the press.

Most people have already made up their minds. To my mind this election will be settled either way - it is still way too close to call - by a few thousand voters in battleground states.

Thank God all those problems from last year have been cleared up. I'm just waiting to see how many Democrats end up voting "accidentally" for Henry Volstoshekov of the Communist Party or Mike Spliff of the Anti-Flatulence League.

 

[onthebottom]

I was a little goofy of the Dems to expect a bounce - although to be fair the only people I heard talking about a bounce were the press.

Most people have already made up their minds. To my mind this election will be settled either way - it is still way too close to call - by a few thousand voters in battleground states.

Thank God all those problems from last year have been cleared up. I'm just waiting to see how many Democrats end up voting "accidentally" for Henry Volstoshekov of the Communist Party or Mike Spliff of the Anti-Flatulence League.

Not just the press, from the link above:

"But analysts see the "bounce" as important because the political conventions are the clearest shot a candidate gets during a campaign to make his case to voters. In a prepared speech, before a cheering audience, he can explain who he is and what he would do as president. In the past three decades, convention bounces have ranged from 3 points to 16.

Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted before the convention that Kerry would jump to a lead of 8 to 12 percentage points afterwards. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who chaired the convention, forecast a bounce of 5 points."

I don't think this fortells good news for Kerry
From my link:

"After the convention, the number of Republicans who said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting spiked by 11 percentage points, to 62%. For Democrats the increase was 5 points, to 73%). Political observers couldn't remember another time when a convention excited more loyalists in the other party than in its own.

The fact that more Democrats are fired up at this point than Republicans isn't necessarily good news for Kerry. There's more maneuvering room for Republicans to gin up their base — and they still have their convention to do that."

Kerry just has no where to go.


OTB

 

[Drunken Master]

Kerry does lead in the battleground states by 7 points:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ap_uO0qUQIfo&refer=us

 

[onthebottom]

From what I can tell about recent polls I think you're right that Kerrry has nowhere to go. However, I also don't think that Bush has anywhere to go.

Your post says that you feel the Dem convention did nothing to gain Dems support but that it worked to mobilize Republicans. I think you'll be actually able to argue the exact same thing about Dems after the Republican convention. Bush is so disliked by so many Americans and has so polarized the nation that I don't think he'll get any "bounce" at all either.

Anyway you look at it this election might, if it's even possible, be closer than the last.

I just think that liberals who hate Bush are already mobilized and conservatives who have been critical of Bush's spending (50% increase in education spending since 2000 for instance) and immigration proposals (guest worker plan) are not yet on board. The issue is not if these people will vote for Kerry (they will not) but if they will vote at all, and in this way I think Bush has upside. Its been often reported that the 2000 election was so close because so many conservatives stayed home because Bush was seen as so moderate - the Republicans have a chance to scare those conservatives to the polls with Kerry's Senate record, which they will focus on during the convention.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

That poll shows a 4 point bounce for Kerry/Edwards - the Party Chairman you are refering to was Republican not Dem. who made that prediction. And thanks D.M. for the 7 pt story in battle ground States.

Not to be a complete pain in the ass but:
Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted before the convention that Kerry would jump to a lead of 8 to 12 percentage points afterwards. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who chaired the convention, forecast a bounce of 5 points."

OTB my main point was about how can lead the War on Terror best - this is where Bush has fallen off by a lot and this was what the Dem Convention needed to do.

As for the my 10% - no I'm right - we can talk again after the debates but I see Bush being trapped by Kerry.



BBK

While the poll numbers are better for Kerry on the war on terror, that is becasue he has the same policy as Bush - anything less would mean he looses the election. There is much talk about brining in other counties that hate Bush, but that's really all it is, talk.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

Will this matter?

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0895260174/ref=bxgy_cc_text_a/102-1005223-7949756#product-details

With so much focus thus far on his service in Vietnam and so little on his Senate record does that open up his service to critique?

OTB

 

[red]

ok how about Kerry and Spiderman vs. Bush and wolverine?

 

[onthebottom]

Com'on OTB Kerry's Senate record is a well laid trap for the debates by Kerry. If you hang your hat on new legislation you have to rember he is the JUNIOR Senator from his State with an 800lb Gorilla as the Senior - you know as well as I do that the Senate works on Senority - length of service and position as the State Rep. It makes it very hard to get new legislation thru. However Kerry has a long list of admendments and compromise to get important legislation thru - like the Balance Budget. Now if your going to get after the 84 billion for the troops - the one Kerry made the stupid remark on - what the White house doesn't tell you is that they got an add on to seperate about 20 billion from the 84 to be used at the Whitehouse's discretion - to date less than .5 of billion has been used for the troops in Iraq - something that Kerry feared would happen. BTW Kerry was on record at the time of the vote that if he thought his vote was going to defeat the bill he would hold his nose and vote for it after all 64 billion was better than nothing.
Kerry's Senate career is a red-herring and if the GOP goes there on the debate, they will get their heads handed to them.

Kerry has spent more than 20 years in the Senate, he has plenty of seniority and plenty of track record to discuss - he just doesn't want to discuss it. Any way you cut it he has a Liberal New England voting record and that will be used to expose the reality of his actions vs the fiction of his campaign. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on any one thing anyone says but Bush will certainly try and portray Kerry as being firmly on both sides of many issues, and that is a critique that has some merit. Odd with the amount of time he spent in the Senate, as the Lt. Governor of Mass under Dukakis and in Vietnam that he focused so much attention on Vietnam.

Anyways OTB - I like that you agree with me about the terror bounce but I disagree with you on US credibilty in the Western World - I do think the US public is going to see that Bush has gone it alone when it didn't have to.

Like his energy independence in 10 years line, he’s going to have as much success at getting old Europe to send troops to Iraq as Bush did. Even if NATO had troops (which apparently they don’t given how few are in Afghanistan even though NATO has command) I don’t think France, Germany and Spain would send them – regardless of who is the POTUS. At the end of the day Old Europe hates the US because they have an enormous Napoleon complex, the ME hates us because we support Israel so strongly (too strongly from my perspective) and who the POTUS is won’t change either of those – sure Kerry may suck up to Europe more but you’d have trouble getting votes in the swing states with that policy….

OTB