Bush vs. Kerry .........who wins?

[Tiger Williams]

I realize it's still early and lots can happen or transpire in the next few months, but what's everyone's take on the outcome?
Right here..........right now!
Call it.
(Not looking for a lot of blah, blah, blah on why your guy's great and the other guy sucks.........just a simple pick 'em)

Just want to stress that we are not looking for who you want................but who you think will win.

I can't believe I'm saying this but my gut says Bush gets back in.

 

[zydeco]

IF the election was held TODAY - Kerry wins.

 

[Tiger Williams]

IF the election was held TODAY - Kerry wins.

You might be right zydeco.........but how about when it really counts?

 

[zydeco]

I was just responding to the specific question that Tiger posed. Or at least I thought I was. I interpreted the right here, right now language to mean who would win today. My mistake - but I do think Kerry will win on election day as well(that is providing there are no extraordinary developments).

 

[Cardinal Fang]

I have a friend in the U.S. who thinks this election will be like the Tag line of the upcoming Alien vs. Predator movie. No matter who wins we (U.S.) loose.

 

[tompeepin]

They're in heat ...

err I mean a dead heat. Right how it could go either way. Do I want Bush to win? Well it might be fun to watch other people get blowed up real good ... and to listen to vacuous rhetoric containing meaningless doublespeak like freedom and good versus evil etc. etc. A reality version of the Manchurian Candidate only combined with dumb and dumber.

Bush will win in November. It will be a twist on fear factor. The ultimate reality show. Pass the pop corn.

 

[red]

Bush

 

[danmand]

Bush

 

[Questor]

I predict Kerry will win, unless Bush wins instead.

 

[Von Wigglestaff]

Saudi Arabia will determine who wins in November. Our opinions are irrelevant.

 

[strange1]

Saw the movie "1984" a couple of days ago. Bush could provide some entertainment along those lines.

I was hoping for the general to be the Dem. nominee.

 

[onthebottom]

Kerry - Edwards win by 10% or better

That is a brave prediction given the solid nature of Bush supporters (like me). I'd be willing to bet you any amount of money that the victor will NOT have a 10% margin, no matter who that is.

NPR featured my county today on their analysis of Ohio, 4 of 5 porch sitters were voting for Bush (one undecided), even the poor steel mill town NPR visited yesterday was Bush friendly, no one mentioned voting FOR Kerry, just against Bush.

While I'd like Bush to win I think Kerry will win, baring a major gaff from the Democrats - which is a party very apt at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, their core is so energized by the hatred of the POTUS that they will turn out in 110% (these are the NY, Chicago democrats we must remember). For all the wincing from the left, the right is not that excited about Bush, he spends too much money, is too soft on illegal immigration..... just not conservative enough for them. What may swing it Bush's way is if people think Kerry can win they may start listing to him and his suggestions, which would be bad for Kerry at this point.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

It is not that brave of a prediction - the only thing holding Bush up is the perception that only Bush can manage the war on terror - especially among the indies. If this flattens out to a draw the Republicans will loose big.
You touched on a the base issue for Dems - last poll I saw has the Republicans base supporting Bush at 93% while Kerry is at 83% but no Dem has ever been this high and as you know OTB Dems have the bad habit of voting Republican when they don't like the candidate while Reuplicans stay home.
This election reminds me of Carter vs Regan - the polls where close, there was a mood in the country that a change was required but it wasn't until the debate a week before the election did the public understand that Regan wasn't Goldwater - someone who would have an itchy trigger finger ( that's how Goldwater was protrayed in 1964). Once the public understood that - Regan won going away.
Same will happen here - all Kerry has to do is become likable at this convention and show how he will wage the war against terror and his resolve in the debates - the rest will fall in place and 10% will be easy.
I think the Dems have solved the problems of the the Bush negative ads - at this stage it will backfire - no Willy Horton video will work this time.

This will surprise no one, I see it completely differently. I think Kerry has benefited as much as he can from the Bush haters. What has not been in focus is Kerry himself, his voting record or his plans for the country. When people step in that voting booth they will be faced with tax increases, socialized medicine, a VP who is wholly unqualified to be POTUS..... In short I don't think voters will like the Liberal Kerry position, they will not like the class warfare (Edwards Two Americas), they will not like the "America is on the wrong track" message. And Kerry wasn't even the Democrats first choice (that was Dean) even the party faithful went with a compromise.

Your Reagan example is telling, Reagan had an optimistic message, and won in pessimistic times. Kerry has a pessimistic message in pessimistic times. We shall see what kind of bounce Kerry gets from his week in Boston, the Edwards dead-cat bounce had to be disappointing.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

Re: OTB

I'm also from Ohio and I agree this state is a toss-up.
I'm from Cleveland and there are still quite a few Bush
supporters in the suburbs. It's going to be very
competitive in Ohio - I'm getting burn out from all
the political ads. I think it's too close to call in Ohio.

It's still my opinion a terrorist attack is planned.
If the administration thwarts the attack Bush will
win. If they succeed Kerry will win. That's going
to be the tipping point.

Don

Ohio is too close to call and along with FL will decide the election (IMHO). I don't agree with the terrorist attack scenario, even if Bush did stop an attack the liberal press would portray it as an election year stunt. If an attack does happen (let's hope not!) then Bush will get a bump in the polls, people will get more conservative and see the world as even more dangerous than they currently do.

OTB

 

[jwmorrice]

Five thousand Quatloos on the newcomer!

jwm

 

[onthebottom]

Is Kerry following his former boss (as Lt. Gov) in a Dukakis moment?

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=13471

LOL

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Liberal press???

The media has given GWB a free ride for the last 3 years.
Only recently has the wishy-washy media started
asking hard questions. There are far too few Tim
Russer's out there. You've got to stop waching Fox
news coverage, it'll give you clogging of the brain
problems.

I don't watch FOX, but I find it humorous that when there is one conservative station (and 3 Liberal) that there is an outcry about FOX.

I'm neither D nor R - I'd rather be called an Anarcist.
I want to bring the entire system to it's knees.
My inspiration is Thom Jefferson who espoused
a good rebellion every 20 years. Now is a good time
for an old fashioned, American revolution 'cause the
system is revolting.

Don

That's productive, you must have much to loose ;-)

I do think there will be fundamental changes in America, I think we will become much more isolationist in the coming decade.

OTB

 

[rocko]

Bush has the electoral college votes to win.

 

[mrpolarbear]

That is a brave prediction given the solid nature of Bush supporters (like me). I'd be willing to bet you any amount of money that the victor will NOT have a 10% margin, no matter who that is.

NPR featured my county today on their analysis of Ohio, 4 of 5 porch sitters were voting for Bush (one undecided), even the poor steel mill town NPR visited yesterday was Bush friendly, no one mentioned voting FOR Kerry, just against Bush.

While I'd like Bush to win I think Kerry will win, baring a major gaff from the Democrats - which is a party very apt at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, their core is so energized by the hatred of the POTUS that they will turn out in 110% (these are the NY, Chicago democrats we must remember). For all the wincing from the left, the right is not that excited about Bush, he spends too much money, is too soft on illegal immigration..... just not conservative enough for them. What may swing it Bush's way is if people think Kerry can win they may start listing to him and his suggestions, which would be bad for Kerry at this point.

OTB

I think you would know better OTB every person in NEW YORK and CHICAGO could vote Demorcrat in November and it wouldnt mean shit. I'ts the Electorial College that decides the winner. Thats why Dubya is in the oval office now. My prediction is Dubya loses the popular vote again but wins in the E.C. I hope i'm wrong cause i don't want another 4 years of fucking Bush. I say let him look for wmd's on his own time not ours.

 

[buffarg]

http://www.electoral-vote.com tracks the various in-state polls, and it's usually shown Kerry with enough to win, but it changes quite a bit from poll to poll (am I spelling that right?).

If Kerry does win, the Republicans will still control the House, and possibly the senate, so a Pres Kerry would be gridlocked as badly as Clinton while inheriting an even bigger set of messes, so I'm guessing he'd be only a one-termer