Breaking Down the COVID-19 Math

[Goodoer]

Do we even have proper enough data to determine risk?

Canada's COVID-19 Link:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.html

As of me writing this: 125K people tested, 1.9K cases confirmed, 0.8K "probable", 27 deaths. My math has me asking the following:

1. Does it mean that only 2% of us will even get the virus? [2.8K/125K x 100%] This can't be true... Lots of people are staying home sick... I've heard 40% to 70% are supposed to get it.
2. Does it mean that only 1% of us will die if we get the virus? [27/2.8K x 100%]
3. Does that mean our current odds of dying from COVID-19 are only 1/5000? This would be even less if you factor in the sick people not that have not been tested...

We all can Google the Odds of Dying Chart... Grabbing the 'common' traffic accident as an example, our odds of dying are roughly 1/100 every day.

If my math or understanding is incorrect, please correct it so we can all understand.

I'm no statistician... To me the data is useless. We have such a small sample size and it would be highly skewed sampling of people that are really sick with the disease or highly susceptible...

Are we just waiting for the big hit to actually happen? At that point, will the statistics make sense?

 

[Polaris]

Break the problem down into two parts. Since this outbreak is still on going, these are general figures and not precise ones. One reason for that is that the two strains of the virus in China, the S strain was mild, but the L strain was the real killer.

Part 1.

If one is infected with coronavirus, then there is a 1 in 10 chance or 2 in 10 chance the patient will need hospitalization due to pneumonia caused by the virus. The patient has difficulty breathing. A simple self test is to try to hold your breath for 10 seconds. If one cannot do that, get tested ASAP.

If one has Covid-19 and is hospitalized, then there is a 1 in 10 chance or 1 in 5 chance of dying from Covid-19 as the patient's lungs give out regardless of the ICU oxygen treatment, or the patient suffers organ failure. What they try to do is give the patient antibiotics in the hopes the body recovers to fight off the virus. The ventilator is there to keep the patient alive until the body kicks into gear. Some cases it will not happen and they expired. Therefore, avoid being infected.

Part 2.

What are the chances of being infected? If one lives in a cave without any contact with another human or bat, then the chances of being infected is zero. If one is at a beach party of 100 people and 1 person has it, stay at that beach party long enough and everyone will have it. What they have found is that if one person in the house hold is infected, the whole house hold becomes infected too.

 

[onthebottom]

Focus on deaths, those counts will be accurate but lagging (by 27 days). Take the # deaths apply whatever mortality rate you believe and you have th # of cases 27 days ago.

 

[Polaris]

This is entertaining video with curse words that explain in more detail the Covid-19.

 

[spraggamuffin]

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1241859943017349126?s=20

 

[malata]

 

[glamphotographer]

There will be 1M cases by April 1st.

 

[glamphotographer]

This is entertaining video with curse words that explain in more detail the Covid-19.

Youtube demonetizes covid-19 videos so you may as well swear.