August 5th 2:00am EST , BTC got wicked down by sharks to $ 48,850 area, would you call that the low or the bears going to test that mark again ?Bitcoin recovering very nicely along with the market, now above 60k. We can breathe a sigh of relief!
Bitcoin to skyrocket in 2024
- Thread starter stinkynuts
- Start date
short squeezeBitcoin recovering very nicely along with the market, now above 60k. We can breathe a sigh of relief!
60k is not my relief zone, more like 75k, but I don't mean intraday, it must be two to four weeks of close at that mark or higher.
I'm going to play this cycle very cautiously.
First, I'm going to use the last two cycles as a guide in terms of a timeline. The first cycle follows the exact same pattern as the other two, but is left translated, thereby making it less useful in terms of timelines. The two cycles in the graph below show how each cycle did after halving.
Looking at the last two cycles, it's remarkable how the dips and rises match up almost perfectly. I suspect that this next cycle will follow the same template.
1)Bitcoin will go up considerable until just before Christmas. Then there will be around a 30% correction. I will sell all my Bitcoin at this point for this reason, as well as to pay taxes on my gains.
2)Around January 1, Bitcoin will start to recover. I will buy back in at this point. I will miss one week of action, but by splitting the taxes I pay between two years, I will pay less, since the first $112,000 in capital gains is taxed at half the rate as the gains above $246,000. Besides, the one week after Christmas has been historically terrible for Bitcoin (timeline-wise after the halving, not for each actual Chrismas).
3)Between January 1 and March 22, Bitcoin will make an incredible run, most likely doubling or more from here ($150,000?). This is where I exit and sell all my Bitcoin (March 22).
4)After March 22, things become very unpredictable and wild. All three previous cycles differ. In the first cycle, Bitcoin continued to rise for about a month before peaking and then crashing. In the second cycle, Bitcoin continued to go up until its peak until September. In the third cycle, Bitcoin crashed and then recovered, reaching a peak in October, but the peak was almost the same as the one in March.
5)In the previous two cycles, after the early peak in March, Bitcoin fell until it bottomed in late June (June 25). This is where I will buy back some, since I believe that it's likely it will peak in the fall of 2025. Most likely I will put in around 20% of my gains.
6)From the bottom of June 25, Bitcoin made one last run until around September 27 where it peaked. This is where I sell all my Bitcoin and am done for good.
7)After Bitcoin peaks in the fall, it will crash and bottom at around Nov/Dec 2026. If you believe that Bitcoin will continue its pattern for the next cycle, this is the best time to buy. However, many are saying that the pattern will NOT repeat, and that a bear cycle is imminent.
First, I'm going to use the last two cycles as a guide in terms of a timeline. The first cycle follows the exact same pattern as the other two, but is left translated, thereby making it less useful in terms of timelines. The two cycles in the graph below show how each cycle did after halving.
Bitcoin Cycles Comparison
Comparing the performance of Bitcoin across different halving cycles
www.bitcoincyclescomparison.com
Looking at the last two cycles, it's remarkable how the dips and rises match up almost perfectly. I suspect that this next cycle will follow the same template.
1)Bitcoin will go up considerable until just before Christmas. Then there will be around a 30% correction. I will sell all my Bitcoin at this point for this reason, as well as to pay taxes on my gains.
2)Around January 1, Bitcoin will start to recover. I will buy back in at this point. I will miss one week of action, but by splitting the taxes I pay between two years, I will pay less, since the first $112,000 in capital gains is taxed at half the rate as the gains above $246,000. Besides, the one week after Christmas has been historically terrible for Bitcoin (timeline-wise after the halving, not for each actual Chrismas).
3)Between January 1 and March 22, Bitcoin will make an incredible run, most likely doubling or more from here ($150,000?). This is where I exit and sell all my Bitcoin (March 22).
4)After March 22, things become very unpredictable and wild. All three previous cycles differ. In the first cycle, Bitcoin continued to rise for about a month before peaking and then crashing. In the second cycle, Bitcoin continued to go up until its peak until September. In the third cycle, Bitcoin crashed and then recovered, reaching a peak in October, but the peak was almost the same as the one in March.
5)In the previous two cycles, after the early peak in March, Bitcoin fell until it bottomed in late June (June 25). This is where I will buy back some, since I believe that it's likely it will peak in the fall of 2025. Most likely I will put in around 20% of my gains.
6)From the bottom of June 25, Bitcoin made one last run until around September 27 where it peaked. This is where I sell all my Bitcoin and am done for good.
7)After Bitcoin peaks in the fall, it will crash and bottom at around Nov/Dec 2026. If you believe that Bitcoin will continue its pattern for the next cycle, this is the best time to buy. However, many are saying that the pattern will NOT repeat, and that a bear cycle is imminent.
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How do you sleep at night dude?Bitcoin recovering very nicely along with the market, now above 60k. We can breathe a sigh of relief!
How do any of you invested in bitcoin sleep, kudos to you guys man.
We're so used to the volatility.How do you sleep at night dude?
How do any of you invested in bitcoin sleep, kudos to you guys man.
But mainly you have to believe that Bitcoin will eventually go up and make an incredible run.
I believe so for the following reasons:
1)Bitcoin follows a pattern, and the pattern is almost identical each time. Whatever psychological, mathematical, or economic factors are affecting the cycle, it will be likely to repeat.
2)Bitcoin's price is determined by demand and supply. The supply of new Bitcoin is cut in half, whereas the demand will now be much greater due to ETFs and mainstream financial instiituions buying Bitcoin. As the demand increases, and people anticipate the historic cycle to repeat, the price will go up, and demand will further increase. People are greedy, and there will always be a demand for quick and easy money. Just like lottery tickets, or gambling. The demand for Bitcoin becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy or feedback loop, since the demand increases prices, which increases demand...
3)Monetary policy will be loosened and as interest rates are slashed, risky assets such as Bitcoin will increase in value due to the influx of cash.
4)The whales at the very top are very powerful and well connected. They will do everything in their power to make sure the cycle repeats so they can double or triple their wealth. They're not going to let Bitcoin NOT explode. They have the ability to maniuplate price and create hysteria through social media and bring in the masses. FOMO will be at its peak next year.
Just look at how they have now infiltrated the very top. They have essentially bribed the most powerful people in the world, including Trump and other politicans by pourin in hundreds of millions of dollars to get what what they want. That's why the Bitcoin ETFs were approved, more Bitcoin-friendly legislation is being considered, and there are less crackdowns on crypto. Crypto money has made its way into the very top level of the financial and political world. Trump and the other politicans were like puppets spitting out exactly what the crypto community wanted to hear, since they paid them to say it. Money is power.
In the end, Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, and all ponzi schemes collapse. I would NEVER sleep easy after this cycle, that's why I'm pulling out after it. It's only a matter of time before the whole systems collapses. NFTs, meme coins such as Doge and Shibainu are outright worthless. Any new technology can replace Bitcoin at anytime, making Bitcoin worthless. The scam can only last for so long. I believe there will be a Netflix documentary about the rise and fall of crypto in the upcoming years.
You have the healthiest outlook on bitcoin I have ever read.
I agree. Stinky, just dollar cost average and hodlHow do you sleep at night dude?
How do any of you invested in bitcoin sleep, kudos to you guys man.
it will rip eventually and alt season is when you start cashing out ...like I said, nobody knows when this will happen since the timing is always different
it was q4 2017 , Jan to may in 2021, and to some extent August to November 2021 (esp for some coins like Solana, avax, metaverse coins etc )
but like i said, look for eth to make an new ATH ...you'll see in every single period as i mentioned, eth makes a new ATH, alts rip, then it's end of the bull run ...every single time
September has historically been a horredous month for crypto and stocks. People back from summer vacation, and lots of people needing money to cover expenses for the new school year.
At the same time, around late September is when we should see the beginning of the parabolic phase, where Bitcoin really starts to take off.
Should be exciting. I'm beginning to lose patience, but hopefully we will be rewarded soon.
www.coinglass.com
At the same time, around late September is when we should see the beginning of the parabolic phase, where Bitcoin really starts to take off.
Should be exciting. I'm beginning to lose patience, but hopefully we will be rewarded soon.
Bitcoin Returns History,Historical BTC Performance | CoinGlass
We provide historical data statistics and analysis for Bitcoin return rates, including daily, weekly, and monthly return rates, etc., to help you understand the historical performance and trends of the Bitcoin market, and assist you in making wiser investment decisions. Our data comes from major...
www.coinglass.com
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If Fridays numbers are shit again and the FED retracts the Sept 18th rate cut, I think BTC might test and crash that 48k mark, no problem.
They will definitely cut, but regardless btc could dip to that level.
A lot of people are giving up hope.
Bitcoin Cycles Comparison
Comparing the performance of Bitcoin across different halving cycles
www.bitcoincyclescomparison.com
People giving up hope is a great sign. People have a really short-term memory; there was basically 6 months of choppy action last year then it suddenly ripped.They will definitely cut, but regardless btc could dip to that level.
A lot of people are giving up hope.
Bitcoin Cycles Comparison
Comparing the performance of Bitcoin across different halving cycleswww.bitcoincyclescomparison.com
Brace yourselves guys. It’s widely believed that there will be one last major shakeout before we take off. This one is going to be very painful, we may fall in the 30’s.
www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) to Hit $40,600 in Historic Price Crash: Details
A top trader and on-chain analyst has issued a critical Bitcoin BINANCE:BTCUSD warning. Ali Martinez, renowned for his insightful analysis of the market, has predicted that the BTC price may be heading toward a massive crash. He took to X (formerly Twitter) to warn his 70.1K followers about the dar…
www.tradingview.com
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One widely held theory is that Bitcoin will not crash, but is preparing for a massive run like the gold and dotcom booms. There will an insane blow off top followed by a massive crash and bear cycle that will last for years, this is quite typical.
x.com
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everyone says that.... historically sept is not a good month for stock and crypto, but it's not dramaticBrace yourselves guys. It’s widely believed that there will be one last major shakeout before we take off. This one is going to be very painful, we may fall in the 30’s.
Bitcoin (BTC) to Hit $40,600 in Historic Price Crash: Details
A top trader and on-chain analyst has issued a critical Bitcoin BINANCE:BTCUSD warning. Ali Martinez, renowned for his insightful analysis of the market, has predicted that the BTC price may be heading toward a massive crash. He took to X (formerly Twitter) to warn his 70.1K followers about the dar…
I sense fear in you, as well, which means it's a good sign the rip is coming sooner rather than later
