Balsillie selling off his Blackberry shares

[goodguy1977]

Hello folks,

Jim B. reducing his holdings below the 5% threshold can't be a good thing. Also from a technical perspective BB doesn't look very good.

I can't think of a good fundamental reason why Jim B. would sell, he's an insider and obviously can see how sales are tracking, which from my checks are not good.

Sorry folks, the bb10 hype is over, no fundamentals, a phone that just meets the current technology standard, competitive releases from Samsung and Apple are coming.... a low cost Iphone would really hurt BB, especially in emerging markets.

Please let me know if my thesis is wrong???

Goodguy

 

[richaceg]

are you shorting BB?

 

[goodguy1977]

are you shorting BB?

I have a short position from 17...

Are you long bb?

Cause if you are i'd like to hear your thesis, maybe i'm wrong.

Goodguy

 

[pakboy26]

He actually Sold his entire position in RIM and had 0% ownership as of December 31,2012.

If you're going to bash. At least have your facts straight.

Can't wait to hear you squeal when your short gets called at $24.

 

[goodguy1977]

Hi there,

Thanks for your deep, well thought out response.

Are you long BB? What is your thesis for the 24 dollar valuation?

Goodguy

 

[goodguy1977]

He actually Sold his entire position in RIM and had 0% ownership as of December 31,2012.

If you're going to bash. At least have your facts straight.

Can't wait to hear you squeal when your short gets called at $24.

And thanks for the positive wishes, I hope your financial situation does just as well.

Goodguy

 

[goodguy1977]

No thesis?

Just insults?

That's the problem with this stock, when a founder cashes out, and your only response is blame the shorts then the stock is toast.

And FYI, our Google pare long has worked out great.

Goodguy

 

[richaceg]

I'm on the fence with bb right now but do your research. BB isn't going anywhere. this is going to be a long wait. I'd say they hit 20 - 21 before the long grinding drop until their next phone comes out.

 

[goodguy1977]

I'm on the fence with bb right now but do your research. BB isn't going anywhere. this is going to be a long wait. I'd say they hit 20 - 21 before the long grinding drop until their next phone comes out.

Hi there,

Thanks for the info, from the work i've done, the financials are not great, the technicals are horrible, as for the new phone. No offence but if the driver is their next phone they are in big trouble. The Galaxy 4 is coming out, Iphone 5S and maybe a low cost alternative coming?
App store is nowhere near the other two, I know some folks have mentioning porting Android apps but why not just buy an Android based phone?

Thanks

Goodguy

I'm looking for the fundamental reason why not?

 

[fmahovalich]

Please explain to the lay man.....

i mean SIMPLE.


WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO 'short at 17'?

 

[pakboy26]

And thanks for the positive wishes, I hope your financial situation does just as well.

Goodguy

Well we both seem to have put our money where our mouth is.

You wish I get slaughtered, and I wish you get squeezed.

No need for 14 responses after this btw. Good luck to you.

 

[pakboy26]

Please explain to the lay man.....

i mean SIMPLE.


WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO 'short at 17'?

Frank, There are two ways to make money in stocks.

The first is buy low and sell high.
The second is borrow shares from somebody, sell high, then buyback those shares at a later date at a lower price.

The OP sold Blackberry stock that he borrowed at $17. He is betting that the stock will go lower. At some point he will buyback the Blackberry stock and return it to the owner he borrowed from. So he essentially sold the stock, but is 'short' the shares. Meaning he owes them at some point.

 

[goodguy1977]

Well we both seem to have put our money where our mouth is.

You wish I get slaughtered, and I wish you get squeezed.

No need for 14 responses after this btw. Good luck to you.

I'm just posting facts, so far no fundamental reasons to oppose them.

I actually don't wish you an ill financial situation, it was just a response to your well wishes in a position that I took.

The fundamental story is that BB still overvalued.

Once BB10 fails, if someone wants to take them out the premium will be very small.

Oh and to boot, no BB10 launch in Japan. Says alot.

Goodguy

 

[goodguy1977]

Please explain to the lay man.....

i mean SIMPLE.


WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO 'short at 17'?

Hello there,

What we did was identify that BB was overvalued through fundamental and technical analysis. Thus we contacted our prime broker who advised us the "cost" to borrow BB shares and sell them. (Thus shorting) We did this when BB was in the 17 and change position, and thus received the proceeds. That is our short position. We wanted to hedge our position to a certain degree if we were wrong thus we did our fundamental work and identified Google as relatively good value versus the BB short. (Apple was debated but the technicals looked horrible) Our Google position has done well, thus we hope to cover BB in the future well below 17 with the sale of our Google position at a higher price. Keeping the spread. This is a pare trade which we've been fortunate with.

I wouldn't advise alot of investors to do it though, a ton of fundamental work has to be done. And emotion cannot be part of the equation which I think alot of folks can't help but have for a company like BB. We don't look it that way, we just want to make money.

Hope that helps!

Happy investing.


Goodguy

 

[rubirosa]

That's what I thought it meant although you've lost me with the connection to Google. I'm glad I'm not the only one who is fuzzy on this stuff!
Thanks for clarifying.

 

[goodguy1977]

That's what I thought it meant although you've lost me with the connection to Google. I'm glad I'm not the only one who is fuzzy on this stuff!
Thanks for clarifying.

Hi there,

Basically, to hedge if tech takes off, the money we received for shorting BB, we invested it in Google. It just worked out that BB fell, and Google went up which has been great for us. That's a pares trade for us.

Hope that helps!

Happy investing

Goodguy

 

[rubirosa]

Do you mean that if BB went up, Google may have also gone up as tech in general goes up therefore hedging against any losses of potential gains not realized with BB had they gone up?
Sorry if this is a dumb question, just trying to understand your strategy.

 

[goodguy1977]

Do you mean that if BB went up, Google may have also gone up as tech in general goes up therefore hedging against any losses of potential gains not realized with BB had they gone up?
Sorry if this is a dumb question, just trying to understand your strategy.

Hi there,

No question is dumb! Yes, you got it.. if tech ripped BB and Goog have a positive correlation, thus we would have a degree of hedging.

Happy trading!

Goodguy

 

[onthebottom]

1month chart doesn't look like a positive response to a company saving product launch...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BBRY+Basic+Chart&t=1m

 

[goodguy1977]

1month chart doesn't look like a positive response to a company saving product launch...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BBRY+Basic+Chart&t=1m

Chart looks horrible, no fundamentals... app store is shit... Samsung set to launch...... and they want to launch a Playbook 2?

Technically it keeps breaking down....

Goodguy