Back Sooner than I thought.

[Galileo]

The last time I was around, some 4 months ago, I asked you if you thought that Harper/Flaherty were right in their estimate of the deficit and whether or not the actual deficit would be higher or lower.

I suggested it would be higher. Most of you agreed. Some of you didn't have the courage to answer (because you knew the answer but didn't want to admit the people you support are basically fuck-ups).

Well - it's taken them only 4 months to figure out what was obvious 4 months ago.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/090527/canada/canada_economy_budget_deficit

Years of surplus budgets have been erased in a few months by a government that doesn't have a clue as to how to run anything.

Now you've got two options open to you. First, there's the Harper and Flaherty are just stupid theory. There's credence to this because neither are famed to be the brightest bulbs around. Let's face it, Harper's commercials make fun of Ignatieff for being an intellectual! (Oh - the horror! - not that!)

This might well explain how their deficit prediction from just a few months ago can be off by more than 50%. They are idiots and idiots can't predict anything! (Anyone pining for the days when Paul Martin always did better than what he predicted in a budget? Why can't Conservatives do this ever?)

The other possible theory is that Harper and Flaherty knew the deficit would be much larger and lied. Frankly, I think there is credence here too. Harper has a history of rationalizing that we Canadians can't handle the truth. Witholding information was a way of keeping in power back then. Do you realize how particularly insulting this is?

My guess - both theories are true. They are stupid. They did know the truth and lied.

Please do understand I'm not criticizing a deficit. I am criticizing a government that a) promised no deficit ever; b) we weren't in a recession; c) the deficit would be small and a short term thing; and d) lied about what they knew.

My own opinion - any deficit over 25 billion dollars is outrageous. Lying to the Canadian public is outrageous.

Last thought: Anyone think that Flaherty has it right yet? In January he predicted 33 billion. Now 50 billion. My money is on it being higher.

(meta-last thougt: under what kind of rocks, do you find guys like Flaherty? He even looks like a cave man, and he certainly sounds like one.)

 

[emerging44]

Deficit lies

Neither Flaherty or Harper have any idea how to run an economy especially in tough times. Look at Flaherty's track record in Ontario - it sucks.

I think they both knew it would be bad but they both lied about how bad it was going to be. However, I also believe this will seriously rebound on them. It was not the type of budget that fiscal conservatives wanted to see and they were pissed with it in January and will be even more pissed now. The rest of the party will be disappointed at the lies. I think the whole thing may be a poison pill: lets make the situation as bad as we can so that if the Liberals decide to fight us and win, they'll have this mess to deal with so maybe they won't bother and we'll get to run the country for another while. Or if the Liberals do run and win, we'll be able to beat them up for failing to sort out the mess!

 

[GOLEAFSGO67]

Not sure you guys know what your talking about...

...Except for the fact you are clearly Liberals and looking for a chance to take a jab...

The WORLD ECONOMY has put ours..and most countries... in this mess...no matter Liberal or Conservative.

Do not lose sight of the fact that 10's of thousands of people have lost there jobs. SO not only are they not contributing taxes, but they are now also at the trough using Social Assistance.

Canadian manufacturing has dropped off...sales are off..so product sales are not producing the taxes as required for the old Budget.

And at the same time..this government was operating on Budgets..and they too have to pay high fuel costs to exist..amongst other higher costs. (Policing, Firefighting, Municipal services) all exist on these higher costs of existance.

So..for the poster (clearly a Liberal) it is rather narrow minded and low resolution thinking to blame Flaherty.

But I assume you will snipe at anyone to get the free spending Liberals in.

And by the way...your Liberals are supporting the ecomomic plan of Harper (remember the Liberals agreed to keep Harper in if they saw all the paperwork and approved of it...which clearly they have)

People always forget that.

Sorta like the Obama crowd...sniping away at the Iraq war..begging to get the troops out...yelling and screaming. But the PLAN OF ATTACK was going as planned...and rather well I might add...but.....NOT ONE TROOP has been brought home yet by Obama. And he got elected in November.

SHOULD WE KICK OBAMA OUT TOO FOR THIS MESS??

Politicking is such a selfish endeavour really.

 

[OddSox]

Gee, I'm pretty sure the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc are all saying the government should spend MORE money...

 

[Galileo]

well goleafsgo,

What exactly are you disagreeing with me on?

Harper/Flaherty made a prediction 4 months ago. 4 months ago, I made a prediction that their prediction was way off - way too low - and that was for a year. We're only 4 months down the road, and they've already admitted their prediction of 4 months ago has no bearing on reality. They were way too low.

So the question is - why did I (and others know this) and why didn't they? Well - there's two possibilities - either they are stupid or they did know and lied.

Tell me what I'm missing. Stop playing politics, and tell me what I'm missing. Did they lie or are they stupid?

 

[GOLEAFSGO67]

Galileo

..with a mere 4 posts...sure seems to walk with big boots.

It was an 'estimate' at the time.

Like I said...the WORLD economy was in freefall. I thougth they would be off as well. NO ONE COULD MAKE A PREDICTION AT THAT TIME...OTHER THAN TO RELY ON THE ACCOUNTING AND KNOWLEDGE AT HAND. TO PREDICT would mean getting into the books of every company in the lands..determine how they are doing...are they downsizing...going banjrupt....what? will they have staff on the government dole??? and then coming up with better numbers??

Sorta like those 100, 000 people...never thought they would lose their job.

Your suggesting that government was inept..in that surpluses have turned to deficits. THATS WHAT HAPPENS IN A RECESSION.

But your missing the bigger point of my..and your.... post.

Your a LIberal...with a very weak platform..AND WEAKER LEADER..trying to get your guy in.

But seriously..Liberals could vote HArper down anytime they wanted....

P.S. - Tell me what the lies are in the Ignatieff commercial.....now that we are discussing the lies...

 

[Galileo]

Child,

Don't you know me? Ah, how fleeting is fame.

Paul Martin wisely beat his predictions every single year as finance minister. Every single year.

So what you are telling me is that you and I knew they were wrong, but they somehow, couldn't see that they were wrong. We knew it, but they couldn't know it.

Two guys on terb knew the deficit would be much higher, but the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister didn't.

So - you're choosing the first option - that they are clueless idiots. Thanks for playing.

 

[GOLEAFSGO67]

I would suggest

in your question "Don't you know me".....that

you are not likely in the intellectual league that I am circling in, and therefore..it is highly unlikely that I would know someone narrow minded.

Oh we may have passed on the street, but I am doubtful I would have given you a second look.

Your analysis...while easy to state...and seemingly righteous...is one that in hind sight is easy to say in a narrow minded world.

But for the higher thinkers...these issues are far more complicated than you guys would like to think about.



Of course..when money is rolling in..anyone can keep a positive cash flow. But I would suggest Galileo that...if you lost your job..it would be a deficit situation for an unpredicatble amount of time for you.

And might I suggest, that if the Liberals have the answers, that they should immediately defeat the government, get on with the election, get themselves elected and get the surpluses back in place. I doubt they do that until the recession is nearer to its end. WHen predicatbility is a little more of a known sceince with the economy...at which point the LIBERALS will take credit for curing the economy.......

AND EXACTLY TO YOUR POINT....WHY DID PAUL MARTIN NOT predict properly as well...IT GOES TO SHOW YOU HOW DIFFICULT IT IS

 

[dcbogey]

The lack of funding for the Parliamentary Budget Office is, at least, a little more understandable now.

It would be interesting to hear what they would have to say on the matter.

It's also interesting that the Finance Minister says the deficit will be "at least" $50 billion - preparing us for another update?

 

[Questor]

I think Harper/Faherty knew the deficit would be higher, but maybe not as high as it is now looking. So to answer the OP's question, they didn't know it would be so high, so they are stupid, and they lied. However, I would propose another motive as well. Deficits are good excuses for neo-cons to make budget cuts. "Oh look, a $50 billion deficit. Government spending is out of control. We need to make big cuts." Harper is on record as saying beyond police and armed forces, there is a very limited role for government. Its just not politically expedient for him to try move in that direction too quickly. But a big deficit provides him some ammunition.

 

[GOLEAFSGO67]

Are we arguing

....that in fact it has nothing to do with the bad economy,

But rather the conservatives just are running these deficits to have cutbacks.

An odd argument.


If we have a deficit...then yes..CUT CUT CUT.

If the conservatives are generating the deficit...minus the economy..then they must be real smart!!

 

[whollycheeses]

Years of surplus budgets have been erased in a few months by a government that doesn't have a clue as to how to run anything.

I've never understood how anyone ever thought a surplus is good. This is not a for-profit company we're talking about. These are TAX DOLLARS. No government should ever have a surplus. A surplus means taxes are too high or revenues are not being used as they should (to benefit the taxpayers).

Neither Flaherty or Harper have any idea how to run an economy especially in tough times. Look at Flaherty's track record in Ontario - it sucks.

I love it when people bring up Flaherty's Ontario under Harris. What liberals always conveniently forget is that all the slashing that Harris/Flaherty did was a direct result of Cretien/Martin slashing provincial transfer payments.... so they could build their 'surplus', and pay for adscam.




Harper didn't want to spend/waste 50 billion dollars, and wouldn't have but for the coalition forcing the 'stimulus'. Good grief, if they had actually taken control of Canada we would be looking at a $100 billion deficit.

 

[GOLEAFSGO67]

Amen

I see Galileo has crawled delicately back into his cave..having understood the msidirection of his post!!!

 

[dcbogey]

I've never understood how anyone ever thought a surplus is good. This is not a for-profit company we're talking about. These are TAX DOLLARS. No government should ever have a surplus. A surplus means taxes are too high or revenues are not being used as they should (to benefit the taxpayers).

That's all well and good WHEN/IF the national debt is paid off.

 

[basketcase]

I've never understood how anyone ever thought a surplus is good. ...

Considering the size of our national debt, a surplus playing said debt is a very sound idea.

More deficit = more debt = more tax money wasted on interest payments. Years of surplus budgets lowered our debt by about $100B to around 460B or so but has ballooned back up to almost $500B (and somewhere around 15-20% of the budget wasted on interest payments).

 

[Galileo]

go leafs go,

Child,

1. Martin overacheived. You do realize that's a good thing, don't you? You do see the difference between overachieving and underachieving? Yes?

2. It was Flaherty who actually denied there was a recession, just a short few months ago.

3. No one is saying the deficit isn't due in part to the recession. It's also due to Harper/Flaherty tax cuts. (Forgot about them?) The point isn't about, though, why there is a deficit. The point is why did they get it so ridiculously wrong? Why was reality much worse than they predicted? (How many times do I have to repeat myself here? Anyway, pretend to be evasive - you've already answered.)

4. Now shoo, child.

 

[GOLEAFSGO67]

MArtin too...

could not predict...Often have excess surpluses...

which plays into the politicking.... "Look at me..i have a surplus".

And then the undereducated Liberals think..."WOw...he has more of our money than he needs..lets vote him in again"

Again I say..your statements are nothing to do with Flaherty / Martin getting it wrong.....more about a LIBERAL shouting out just because.....

 

[Galileo]

No little one,,,,

Martin predicted a surplus and then overachieved. It's that simple. He eliminated the deficit (remember his transfer payment cuts? I'm sure you don't.) After eliminating the deficit a little quicker than he projected, he then projected a surplus each year and did better each year. This isn't something you can dispute.

When you make predictions the goal is to do as good or better than the predition; not worse.

Child.

 

[train]

I think the whole thing may be a poison pill: lets make the situation as bad as we can so that if the Liberals decide to fight us and win, they'll have this mess to deal with so maybe they won't bother and we'll get to run the country for another while. Or if the Liberals do run and win, we'll be able to beat them up for failing to sort out the mess!

People seem to forget that the spending side of the equation was forced on the Conservatives by the Liberals and NDP in December/January practically at gun point. Iggy even insisted that he get progress reports to ensure the Conservatives were spending what they said they would to stimulate the economy and not holding back.

The Liberals want to spend more even than the Conservatives ( see Iggy on EI). So if that's the case then the only way to reduce the deficit is to increase taxes substantially. If you want to see how that works out as an economic stimulus plan then pray Iggy forces an early election.

 

[train]

I suggested it would be higher. Most of you agreed. Some of you didn't have the courage to answer (because you knew the answer but didn't want to admit the people you support are basically fuck-ups).

Not only a brlliant economist but a mindreader as well I see. You know what terb members are thinking. Impressive. TQMish even.

The problem is the revenue side of the equation so let's start with you telling him what the oil price is going to be for the rest of the year as that is a major revenue generator. When you are finished with that perhaps you could let Flaherty know what the US/CAN exchange rate is going to be.