Asteroid might smash into earth in 2032

[Vinson]

There's a 2.3% chance an asteroid might smash into earth in 2032

Odds of asteroid hitting Earth went up, but that was expected: What to know about 2024 YR4

The odds that asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth in 2032 recently spiked from a little more than 1% to 2.3% as more observations are made.

www.usatoday.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1887962600148988215

"Extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032."

I don't find it very low, start the chanting.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

If a plane had a 2.3% chance of crashing I would never get on it

 

[onomatopoeia]

2024 YR4 asteroid

2032 'risk corridor' in red.

Keep in mind that the object was discovered less than two months ago, so a lot of its orbit is estimated by computer calculation. The majority of the path is over water and places on Trump's list of "shithole countries".

 

[Butler1000]

View attachment 407851

2024 YR4 asteroid

2032 'risk corridor' in red.

Keep in mind that the object was discovered less than two months ago, so a lot of its orbit is estimated by computer calculation. The majority of the path is over water and places on Trump's list of "shithole countries".

Oh man, if it hits India? That's massive casualties.

 

[onomatopoeia]

MSN

www.msn.com

2024 YR4 will cross the Earth's orbit again in 2028, with 0% chance of collision. During that close encounter, The asteroid might or might not pass through a 'gravity keyhole corridor', likely a few kilometers wide, or smaller. If the asteroid does not pass through the keyhole in 2028, it will not enter Earth's atmosphere in 2032. If it does, it might.

There is no way in advance to predict how other extraneous factors might perturb the asteroid's orbit during the next eight years.

This asteroid has an estimated diameter of 40 - 90 meters, and it is believed to be composed of low density rock. The chances of it hitting the Earth's surface are very low, because it would most likely explode in the atmosphere, and any damage would be as a result of the shock wave from the explosion.

My guess is that if the asteroid does not pass through the keyhole in 2028, the 2032 close encounter will be downgraded to click-bait status, and if it does, some serious effort will be made to destroy it or change its orbit before 2032.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Odds have been increased again to 2.6%.
I for one welcome our new overlords

Odds of 'city killer' asteroid hitting Earth increase yet again

A former astronaut called it a 'bullet zeroing in on Earth from deep space.'

metro.co.uk

 

[Addict2sex]

Odds have been increased again to 2.6%.
I for one welcome our new overlords

Odds of 'city killer' asteroid hitting Earth increase yet again

A former astronaut called it a 'bullet zeroing in on Earth from deep space.'

metro.co.uk

Not to worry …. Elon Musk will save earth with his rockets from spaceX.

 

[anon1]

Not to worry …. Elon Musk will save earth with his rockets from spaceX.

Why?
White countries aren't in the path.

 

[xmontrealer]

Odds have been increased again to 2.6%.
I for one welcome our new overlords

Odds of 'city killer' asteroid hitting Earth increase yet again

A former astronaut called it a 'bullet zeroing in on Earth from deep space.'

metro.co.uk

Now 3.1%. At this rate in a year from now the odds will be over 50%...

 

[glamphotographer]

Trump will blow it up way before that.

Trump just has to fart into space.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Now 3.1%. At this rate in a year from now the odds will be over 50%...

Now is the time to buy life insurance

 

[jalimon]

Trump suggested to move the earth a few hundred kilometres right, out of the path.

 

[oil&gas]

Odds have been increased again to 2.6%.
I for one welcome our new overlords

2.6% is nowhere as frightening as the likelihood of human extinction from
climate change which will be a certainity unless global carbon emission is
halved by 2030. I will look to world's climate warriors as role models of facing
impending doom with fortitude.

 

[Hands95]

This falls firmly in the category of 'you can't do anything about it'. Therefore, why worry? But I can see this being used to keep everyone over-excited while actual bad shit is happening.

 

[onomatopoeia]

From wikipedia:


On 23 February 2025 (with a 60 day observation arc), the asteroid was dropped to Torino scale Level 0, meaning the likelihood of a collision is effectively zero.

As of 23 February 2025 NASA gives Palermo scale rating of −3.08 for 2024 YR4, which corresponds to an impact hazard of 0.08% of the background hazard level. NEODyS gives −3.92 with an impact probability of 0.000444% while the European Space Agency gives a Palermo scale rating of −3.44 with an impact probability of 0.00162%.