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Are your policies undermined by statistics? Scrap the census!

fuji

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I think the reason why the tories have it out for Stats Can is that they're sick of their ideological saws being undermined by facts. They figure if they can discredit StatsCan they will face fewer challenges from people who ask questions like "Why are you spending billions on crime, when crime is declining?"

Solution?

Prevent people from learning that crime is declining. Undermine the long form census, thereby invalidating data, and making it easier to challenge any unpleasant facts that undermine a purely ideological policy.
 

train

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Well no one really cares what you think fuji considering that you think the census and crime stats are related. This is a stretch even for someone with your agenda.
 

fuji

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Well no one really cares what you think fuji considering that you think the census and crime stats are related. This is a stretch even for someone with your agenda.
You fail. Try again. Probably posted before drinking your morning coffee. Analysis of trends in crime, crime models, etc. very much depends on census data. It's critical for controlling for demographics and other factors.

Oh gee but there wasn't a direct question on the census asking specifically about crime how can that BE?!

Yes I'm mocking you.
 

slowpoke

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Statisitics Canada's actual crime stats come from sources outside the census itself. But the analysis of this data is dependent on other data which is gathered via the census. The quote below is from the footnotes at the bottom of a StatsCan crime table.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/85-002-x2007005-eng.pdf

..."Notes: Rates are calculated on the basis of 100,000 population. The population estimates come from Statistics Canada, Demography Division. Populations as of July 1st: final postcensal estimates for 2002 and 2003; updated postcensal estimates for 2004 and 2005; and preliminary postcensal estimates for 2006."...

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2010002/article/11292-eng.htm

..."In Canada, crime is measured using data collected by two Statistics Canada surveys: police-reported data through the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Survey and victim-reported data through the General Social Survey.

This report presents findings from the 2009 UCR Survey, an annual survey of all criminal incidents known to, and substantiated by, Canadian police services. The survey collects data on about 200 individual criminal offences. These data conform to a nationally-approved set of common crime categories and definitions and have been systematically reported by police services and submitted to Statistics Canada each year since 1962. Counts for each offence are based on the most serious offence in an incident.

The report examines trends in the severity and volume of both overall and violent crime at the national, provincial/territorial and census metropolitan area levels. Changes in the rates of certain offence types, including homicide, assault, sexual offences, robbery, break and enter, motor vehicle theft, impaired driving and drug offences are presented. This report also provides information on youth crime including, for the first time, trends in the severity of crime committed by youth."...
 

slowpoke

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I just noticed this Jeffrey Simpson article that talks about the possible motive behind Harper's attack on StatsCan. Whatever the actual reason, Harper's attack wasn't based on the so-called increase in unreported crime statistics.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/the-long-form-will-return-voters-wont/article1667205/
..."The Harper government – that is, the Prime Minister and his entourage – tried to slip a fast one past Canadians. It announced the end of the long form in the dead of summer, on a Friday to boot, as a sop to their far-right core constituency.

They must have figured no one would be paying attention, so they could take out their dislike of Statistics Canada when no one was looking – a dislike grounded in their blinkered belief that the agency collects facts that are then used by pressure groups, often of the social activist variety, that want more and bigger government.

Canadian civic society immediately smelled a rat. At last count – the figures are provided by the redoubtable retired professor William Stanbury – more than 200 groups and institutions publicly oppose the Harper policy, while three support it."...
 

Aardvark154

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The fact that there is widespread dislike of the intrusiveness of the Census long form among Canadians, played absolutely no role in the Government's decision I'm sure.
 

blackrock13

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The fact that there is widespread dislike of the intrusiveness of the Census long form among Canadians, played absolutely no role in the Government's decision I'm sure.
Aardie, there isn't widespread dislike in Canada although an Ipsos Reid poll done mid July might show a split. Looking at the numbers more closely give a better understanding;



Fault lines appear between different age groups, with 56 per cent of those aged 18 to 34 say it's a good decision to make the long form voluntary, compared to 48 per cent of those 35 to 54 and 44 per cent of the 55-plus crowd.

Six in 10 (59 per cent) university graduates think the census change is a bad move, compared to 53 per cent of those with some post-secondary education, 47 per cent with a high-school education and 44 per cent without a high-school diploma.

Overall, one in five (19 per cent) Canadians say they won't fill out the long form if it's voluntary, but some groups are more likely to say that than others.

Those whose families earn less than $30,000 are most likely to say they wouldn't complete a voluntary long form (27 per cent), compared to 20 per cent of middle-income earners and 15 per cent of those whose family income is more than $60,000 a year.

Younger Canadians (25 per cent) are more likely to say they'd ignore a voluntary census than middle-aged (20 per cent) or older people (13 per cent). And men (22 per cent) are significantly more likely than women (16 per cent) to say they would not fill out the form.

The online poll, conducted July 16-19 with a sample of 1,036 adults, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


http://www.canada.com/consensus+census+debate+Poll/3302580/story.html
 

Aardvark154

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Aardie, there isn't widespread dislike in Canada although an Ipsos Reid poll done mid July might show a split.
I'd have to try to find the article again, but several weeks ago I recall reading an article in one of the newspapers which mentioned how most of those who have had to fill out the long form in previous censuses disliked the intrusiveness of the long form.
 

blackrock13

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I'd have to try to find the article again, but several weeks ago I recall reading an article in one of the newspapers which mentioned how most of those who have had to fill out the long form in previous censuses disliked the intrusiveness of the long form.
I also dislike going to the dentist, but I do it because I know it's good for me.
 

Aardvark154

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I also dislike going to the dentist, but I do it because I know it's good for me.
Actually I agree with you about the necessity of the long form. However, I don't believe it is loved and indeed the latest U.S. Census went in the same direction that Statistics Canada seems to be going. Apparently the U.S. Census is now relying much more on supplemental surveying rather than the decennial census.
 

fuji

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The fact that there is widespread dislike of the intrusiveness of the Census long form among Canadians, played absolutely no role in the Government's decision I'm sure.
Do you have any evidence of this widespread dislike? I've heard that some 50 people nation wide complained about it. I wouldn't call that widespread, other than perhaps in the sense that they might have been spread widely around the country. You know, one might have been in PEI, and another on Vancouver Island. Wide spread in that sense.
 

ogibowt

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The fact that there is widespread dislike of the intrusiveness of the Census long form among Canadians, played absolutely no role in the Government's decision I'm sure.
one can assume that you did extensive research to come up with that..
 

fuji

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Oops my error, I had thought it was around 50 people who disliked the long-form census. Turns out it was 166 people who disliked it, out of the 12 million who filled it out. There might even be as many as 20 census dislikers in Toronto--maybe they can start a facebook group.
 

slowpoke

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The fact that there is widespread dislike of the intrusiveness of the Census long form among Canadians, played absolutely no role in the Government's decision I'm sure.
The few complaints about the long form census were not a political issue until Harpo made it one. Every 5 years the long forms go out and the vast majority of Canadians fill them out without complaint. Most people see it as their civic duty - partly because StatsCan had such a sterling reputation (until Harper started interfering). The fact that nobody actually likes the long form should not make it into a priority for a PM who has a very long list of real problems to worry about. Instead, we find Harpo actually pandering to this vanishingly small percentage of Canadians who resist making even the slightest contribution to the overall good. What happened to "Ask not what your country can do for you....." and why is Harper on the wrong side of that sentiment? Because he's a fuckhead that's why!
 

blackrock13

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Actually I agree with you about the necessity of the long form. However, I don't believe it is loved and indeed the latest U.S. Census went in the same direction that Statistics Canada seems to be going. Apparently the U.S. Census is now relying much more on supplemental surveying rather than the decennial census.
Before the first national survey back around 1867, that's all we had supplemental/local surveys. Why do you think they decided on a national ones Why do you think the Greeks and Romans. Like the Germans of the nazi era, the Romans had records on EVERYTHING and that was one of the reasons they were able to explode with advancements in so many things; unlike the Visigoths of the time.
 

blackrock13

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Oops my error, I had thought it was around 50 people who disliked the long-form census. Turns out it was 166 people who disliked it, out of the 12 million who filled it out. There might even be as many as 20 census dislikers in Toronto--maybe they can start a facebook group.
Fuji, read post 8 more slowly this time, or maybe for the first time, and see where it leads you.
 

fuji

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Fuji, read post 8 more slowly this time, or maybe for the first time, and see where it leads you.
Your online poll shows that people who are lower income or younger are more likely not to fill it out--I presume because they are lazier and care less. That's when asked their opinion. Opinions are cheap. Let's look at actions.

When actually given a long form census to fill out only 166 people out of 12 million complained about having to do so.
 
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