any casino roulette players?
- Thread starter ILOVETHIS
- Start date
At roulette each spin is a new spin and the outcome is never determined by prior spins. After eight successive blacks, a black is as likely to come up as a red. You may argue that the reds and blacks will eventually even out over a long run, and you would be right. Indeed, we are both right.
Let's first analyse why the odds are the same each spin of the wheel even if the outcomes even out over a long run, and then we'll look at the popular 'delayed' double up betting strategy, based on the Martingale system, that has an apparent probability advantage employed by most beginners. In order to simplify the calculations, we will assume that the roulette wheel has no zeros, just 18 red and 18 black slots.
Consider this:
In, say, 1,000,000 roulette spins you would have in theory 500,000 reds and 500,000 blacks appearing. Now, we know they don't come up in turns one at a time, that is, you would expect to see two, three, four or more in a row in either colour to appear. For this analysis we will consider the 'eight blacks in a row sequence' as the typical example.
If you were to count all the occurrences of eight blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A RED, you will find an equal number of occurrences of eight blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A BLACK (9 blacks in a row). You will also find an equal number of eight reds in a row in the same way making the total number of blacks and reds equal. If you have a computer roulette simulator, try it out.
This means that of the 'eight blacks' sets there are 50% eight blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A RED and 50% eight blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A BLACK. The same applies to the 'eight reds' sets. Therefore if you bet red after eight blacks in a row or if you bet black after eight reds in a row, you will have a 50:50 chance of getting it right.
This is true no matter how many times black or red come up in a row, because for every occurrence of, say, 8, 10 or 20 blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A RED there will be one with 8, 10 or 20 blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A BLACK. You just don't know which of the two sequences will come up first.
After eight blacks in a row, your chances of winning are still 50:50 whether you bet on red or black.
Tip: If you are influenced by previous results, then learn to bet with the outcome and not against it. You will eventually realize that it makes no difference. If anything, the 'law of unequal distribution' will be on your side.
The 'delayed' double up betting strategy:
It is a known fact that many players wait for, say, four blacks in a row to appear and then start betting on red doubling up the bet up to four times (or more) if they lose. They do this believing that they have gained a sequential probability advantage - the four successive blacks with no bet. Indeed if you use this strategy, you will win most of the time and you will probably conclude that you have an advantage.
You would be wrong! Take a look at the following figures:
Starting with one chip, if you double up your bet up to four times on red and win, you would win one chip. If you lose on your fourth doubling up bet, you would lose 15 chips (1 + 2 + 4 + 8 = 15). All it takes is one in 16 attempts that you lose and you would have lost all your 15 wins.
Now, try the same double up strategy but bet randomly on red and black. That is, ignore what came up, just bet at will - sometimes red sometimes black and on different tables (switch tables). All you know is this: If you lose you will double up your bet, up to four times. On a long run you should get the same results as your planned one-colour one-table double up betting strategy.
The reason is that it is not the probability of colour that is at work, it is the probability of losing four times in a row on a 50:50 chance bet, which is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16. You would in fact in the long run win 15 times and lose one time every 16 attempts, on average. Net profit = 0.
The Martingale system is in fact based on the probability of losing infinite times in a row.
Although infallible in theory, the Martingale system requires a large bankroll (it has been reported that in Monte Carlo once, red came up 39 times in a row), has a very low return and is a very risky one because of the maximum bet limits imposed by the casinos. If you run out of money or reach the house limit, you can lose a lot with no chance to recover it.
Tip: For an efficient betting strategy aim to win more money in fewer winning spins.
Let's first analyse why the odds are the same each spin of the wheel even if the outcomes even out over a long run, and then we'll look at the popular 'delayed' double up betting strategy, based on the Martingale system, that has an apparent probability advantage employed by most beginners. In order to simplify the calculations, we will assume that the roulette wheel has no zeros, just 18 red and 18 black slots.
Consider this:
In, say, 1,000,000 roulette spins you would have in theory 500,000 reds and 500,000 blacks appearing. Now, we know they don't come up in turns one at a time, that is, you would expect to see two, three, four or more in a row in either colour to appear. For this analysis we will consider the 'eight blacks in a row sequence' as the typical example.
If you were to count all the occurrences of eight blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A RED, you will find an equal number of occurrences of eight blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A BLACK (9 blacks in a row). You will also find an equal number of eight reds in a row in the same way making the total number of blacks and reds equal. If you have a computer roulette simulator, try it out.
This means that of the 'eight blacks' sets there are 50% eight blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A RED and 50% eight blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A BLACK. The same applies to the 'eight reds' sets. Therefore if you bet red after eight blacks in a row or if you bet black after eight reds in a row, you will have a 50:50 chance of getting it right.
This is true no matter how many times black or red come up in a row, because for every occurrence of, say, 8, 10 or 20 blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A RED there will be one with 8, 10 or 20 blacks in a row FOLLOWED BY A BLACK. You just don't know which of the two sequences will come up first.
After eight blacks in a row, your chances of winning are still 50:50 whether you bet on red or black.
Tip: If you are influenced by previous results, then learn to bet with the outcome and not against it. You will eventually realize that it makes no difference. If anything, the 'law of unequal distribution' will be on your side.
The 'delayed' double up betting strategy:
It is a known fact that many players wait for, say, four blacks in a row to appear and then start betting on red doubling up the bet up to four times (or more) if they lose. They do this believing that they have gained a sequential probability advantage - the four successive blacks with no bet. Indeed if you use this strategy, you will win most of the time and you will probably conclude that you have an advantage.
You would be wrong! Take a look at the following figures:
Starting with one chip, if you double up your bet up to four times on red and win, you would win one chip. If you lose on your fourth doubling up bet, you would lose 15 chips (1 + 2 + 4 + 8 = 15). All it takes is one in 16 attempts that you lose and you would have lost all your 15 wins.
Now, try the same double up strategy but bet randomly on red and black. That is, ignore what came up, just bet at will - sometimes red sometimes black and on different tables (switch tables). All you know is this: If you lose you will double up your bet, up to four times. On a long run you should get the same results as your planned one-colour one-table double up betting strategy.
The reason is that it is not the probability of colour that is at work, it is the probability of losing four times in a row on a 50:50 chance bet, which is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16. You would in fact in the long run win 15 times and lose one time every 16 attempts, on average. Net profit = 0.
The Martingale system is in fact based on the probability of losing infinite times in a row.
Although infallible in theory, the Martingale system requires a large bankroll (it has been reported that in Monte Carlo once, red came up 39 times in a row), has a very low return and is a very risky one because of the maximum bet limits imposed by the casinos. If you run out of money or reach the house limit, you can lose a lot with no chance to recover it.
Tip: For an efficient betting strategy aim to win more money in fewer winning spins.
I can't even begin to tell you how wrong you are. You have a far less than 50% chance of winning in a casino.richaceg said:
I believe the games with the poorest odds for players are Let it Ride and Caribbean Poker.pencilneckgeek2 said:
Craps, when played properly, seems to have the smallest edge for the house.
the only advice I can give if you do enjoy roulette:
1. if you play with at least $50/spin then look for the European/French wheel. It only has one zero so the house edge (vig) goes from 5.26% to just 2.6%
2. stay away from the automated roulette wheel. The one where there are about 8 seats with touch screens around a mechanical wheel. I've seen a lot of funny spins.
3. to paraphrase what radioshack said, if you do any sort of progressive betting system to make up past losses, don't take it to far and learn to accept a lossing series and start back at square one to make up any losses.
4. if you just like betting the ~50% bets and don't like betting big then go to the Sic Bo table (look for a lot of Chinese people betting on a dice game
) and bet the Big/Small which has a vig of about 2.78%
1. if you play with at least $50/spin then look for the European/French wheel. It only has one zero so the house edge (vig) goes from 5.26% to just 2.6%
2. stay away from the automated roulette wheel. The one where there are about 8 seats with touch screens around a mechanical wheel. I've seen a lot of funny spins.
3. to paraphrase what radioshack said, if you do any sort of progressive betting system to make up past losses, don't take it to far and learn to accept a lossing series and start back at square one to make up any losses.
4. if you just like betting the ~50% bets and don't like betting big then go to the Sic Bo table (look for a lot of Chinese people betting on a dice game
) and bet the Big/Small which has a vig of about 2.78%I place an equal bet on 2 of the 3 sections on the board (outside) which increases my odds slighty.
bet on 1st 12
bet on 2nd 12
and leave 3rd 12 with no bet
You will automatically loose one of these bets obviously but the payout is 3 to 1 and this leave you with a slight % advange VS placing a bet on just red or black. The retun on investment of course is lower but I find I have a greater winning frequency when I use this strategy. I usually try to win 3-4 in a row placing $100+ bet on each section for each spin then walking away.
Is this mathematically correct? Or is it something crazy I just thought of?
But at the end of the day it comes down to alot of luck with roulette.
bet on 1st 12
bet on 2nd 12
and leave 3rd 12 with no bet
You will automatically loose one of these bets obviously but the payout is 3 to 1 and this leave you with a slight % advange VS placing a bet on just red or black. The retun on investment of course is lower but I find I have a greater winning frequency when I use this strategy. I usually try to win 3-4 in a row placing $100+ bet on each section for each spin then walking away.
Is this mathematically correct? Or is it something crazy I just thought of?
But at the end of the day it comes down to alot of luck with roulette.
(almost) all bets are the same
Actually, with an American wheel (0 and 00), all bets have the same house edge of 5.26% (1 / 19). EXCEPT the five spot bet (0, 00, 1, 2, 3) which has a house edge of 7.89%.
Check out http://wizardofodds.com/roulette for a breakdown
Btw the payout on 1st 12 is 2 to 1, not 3 to 1. Covering two thirds does let you win more frequently, but when you lose you lose twice as much as you win so it evens out to the same 5.26% house edge.
Here's a breakdown of expected value (imagine $1 bets). The house edge is calculated as (probablility of winning) x amount won + (probability of losing) x amount lost...
Red: (18 / 38) x 1 + (20 / 38) x -1 = -0.0526
1st 12: (12 / 38) x 2 + (26 / 38) x -1 = -0.0526
Single Number: (1 / 38) x 35 + (37 / 38) x -1 = 0.0526
1st 12 and 2nd 12: (24 / 38) x 0.5 + (14 / 38) x -1 = 0.0526 (the $1 wagered is distributed across the two bets to acurrately compare to the single bets above)
I highly recommend http://wizardofodds.com for gambling information...
Actually, with an American wheel (0 and 00), all bets have the same house edge of 5.26% (1 / 19). EXCEPT the five spot bet (0, 00, 1, 2, 3) which has a house edge of 7.89%.
Check out http://wizardofodds.com/roulette for a breakdown
Btw the payout on 1st 12 is 2 to 1, not 3 to 1. Covering two thirds does let you win more frequently, but when you lose you lose twice as much as you win so it evens out to the same 5.26% house edge.
Here's a breakdown of expected value (imagine $1 bets). The house edge is calculated as (probablility of winning) x amount won + (probability of losing) x amount lost...
Red: (18 / 38) x 1 + (20 / 38) x -1 = -0.0526
1st 12: (12 / 38) x 2 + (26 / 38) x -1 = -0.0526
Single Number: (1 / 38) x 35 + (37 / 38) x -1 = 0.0526
1st 12 and 2nd 12: (24 / 38) x 0.5 + (14 / 38) x -1 = 0.0526 (the $1 wagered is distributed across the two bets to acurrately compare to the single bets above)
I highly recommend http://wizardofodds.com for gambling information...
TeflonJohn said:
Craps (double odds) 0.60%
Blackjack 0.80%
Baccarat (banker) 1.17%
Baccarat (player) 1.63%
Pai Gow Poker 2.5%
Roulette (single zero) 2.7%
Three-Card Poker 3.4%
Let It Ride 3.5%
Sportsbook Betting 4.5%
Caribbean Stud Poker 5.26%
Roulette (double zero) 5.6%
Blackjack 0.80%
Baccarat (banker) 1.17%
Baccarat (player) 1.63%
Pai Gow Poker 2.5%
Roulette (single zero) 2.7%
Three-Card Poker 3.4%
Let It Ride 3.5%
Sportsbook Betting 4.5%
Caribbean Stud Poker 5.26%
Roulette (double zero) 5.6%
ILOVETHIS said:
There are systems that work, but all of them only work for short periods of time and all are fallable. However I won't get into it on here as there are a lot of disbelievers and people who will call BS, but the fact is that since December I have developed my own "system" which has allowed me to turn $1-200 into $1000-$2000 in a matter of hours over a dozen times and NO I won't share it as it's taken a lot of my time to develop and why would I for free. If interested I would show you at a casino.
Also for the dude who said stay away from the automated table - that's wrong, it is the best for coming up with systems because the spins are much faster.
European tables are by far the best if you can find them.
Sic-bo is another game which has similar payouts as roulette and is fairly easy to play.
They are all games of chance, but both roulette and sic-bo have the higher payouts. Your odds
may be better with other games, but payouts are lower.
E
enduser1
My Roulette System is 100% guaranteed to suck every dollar out of your wallet. I can save you all the trouble, just take two hundred forty dollars and hire a lovely escort. I give you a 100% guarantee that even a bad session will give you a better return than Roulette.
EU
EU
Here's an easy $30,000 for you Writer
If your system is solid then you should take the easy $30,000 offered to you at the link below.
http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge.html
Here's some good info on betting systems:
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html
The truth is no betting system can overcome a mathematical house edge.
If your system is solid then you should take the easy $30,000 offered to you at the link below.
http://vegasclick.com/gambling/betting-system-challenge.html
Here's some good info on betting systems:
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html
The truth is no betting system can overcome a mathematical house edge.
Writer said:
Very interesting reading here guys. I like Roulette and have no illusions that I know what I am doing but I have played the end of the table where the payout is 2-1 with success.
call it the 1st column , 2nd and 3rd. bet 5 on the 1st and 5 on the 2nd if the 1st wins then you receive 10 plus your original 5 while you loose the other 5. so far your up 5..
the next spin i bet on 2nd and 3rd. I keep this up betting on the columns that did not win last spin until I loose on both columns. Then I figure that odds are one of the two I just lost on, one will get hit next spin so I double up my bets on both.
Only once is about 5 times now have I left with less money than I started with.
I never win a lot, but I find it's more fun than slots and even when I lost I played for a long time.
call it the 1st column , 2nd and 3rd. bet 5 on the 1st and 5 on the 2nd if the 1st wins then you receive 10 plus your original 5 while you loose the other 5. so far your up 5..
the next spin i bet on 2nd and 3rd. I keep this up betting on the columns that did not win last spin until I loose on both columns. Then I figure that odds are one of the two I just lost on, one will get hit next spin so I double up my bets on both.
Only once is about 5 times now have I left with less money than I started with.
I never win a lot, but I find it's more fun than slots and even when I lost I played for a long time.
I didn't see this post until now. I read his rules of the challenge and they are crap and absolutelysugarat said:
ridiculous. It would be impossible for anybody to beat his challenge and he made it that way -
no wonder he has not had any challengers. If his challenge were a real life scenerio I would be a
challenger for him.
A computer can not account for human variation. Last time I was at the casino I noticed something very interesting and it was all human effect.
"No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn't looking." — Albert Einstein
Does this mean I am smarter than Einstein or maybe he just didn't figure it out? How can that be?
I do admit that Roulette is a fascinating game and designed by a brilliant mathematician.
arthurfonzerelli said:
If you look at any system - not a single one (that I know of) is designed to work for 1 billion spins because no HUMAN could sit at a table for that long.
I wouldn't necessarily say I have a "system" whatever that means but I have several strategies that work 90% of the time.
It's all in playing and knowing the game and knowing when to walk away.
