To help solve an acute national over-population problem a government issues a radical decree that families should stop having children as soon as they have had one son. After a while, there are some families with only one boy, some with one girl and one boy, some with two girls and one boy, some with three girls and one boy, some with six girls and one boy etc., and some families who only have girls and give up trying for a son.
Would boys tend to outnumber girls in this generation? Or vice versa?
50/50. It might seem that there would be more girls. But for every time a child is born, there is a 50/50 chance of each gender so nothing changes. What would be different is that there would be far more families with one boy only than families with at least one girl.
50/50. It might seem that there would be more girls. But for every time a child is born, there is a 50/50 chance of each gender so nothing changes. What would be different is that there would be far more families with one boy only than families with at least one girl.
To repeat, let's say that in said country, all couples had one kid per year until they had a son. Now let's say there was 1000 couples in this country who could participate. And I'm assuming we are ruling out things like multiples births, miscarriages and abortions. All attempts are successful and end with the birth of one boy or one girl.
At the end of year one there would be 1000 couples birthing 500 boys and 500 girls.
At the end of year two there would be 500 couples birthing 250 boys and 250 girls.
At the end of year three there would be 250 couples birthing 125 boys and 125 girls.
Etc....
So, in each year the number of new boys and girls would remain the same.
I'd say there would be more girls in time . Although there is a 50/50 chance to have a boy or girl on the first child, the odds to have another 2 or 3 boys is zero after the first boy. The chances to have 4 or 5 girls exists while the chance to have more than one boy is nil. The "odds" only matter when both are possible but it's no longer a matter of "odds" when a human decision to stop after a boy enters the equation.
I'd say there would be more girls in time . Although there is a 50/50 chance to have a boy or girl on the first child, the odds to have another 2 or 3 boys is zero after the first boy. The chances to have 4 or 5 girls exists while the chance to have more than one boy is nil. The "odds" only matter when both are possible but it's no longer a matter of "odds" when a human decision to stop after a boy enters the equation.
Yeah, the question is flawed. I think it's just meant to be a trick question.
Also, boys are born more frequently than girls. It's not 50/50. The reason that there are more women in the world is because men tend to die sooner. Even by the age of 25, it becomes about even because boys do stupid/riskier things when they're young that can lead to their death.
I'd say there would be more girls in time . Although there is a 50/50 chance to have a boy or girl on the first child, the odds to have another 2 or 3 boys is zero after the first boy. The chances to have 4 or 5 girls exists while the chance to have more than one boy is nil. The "odds" only matter when both are possible but it's no longer a matter of "odds" when a human decision to stop after a boy enters the equation.
think of it this way, take all families and their first borns, 1/2 will have girls, 1/2 will have boys (50-50 gender population split)
now you have the remaining families (with first born girls) collectively you will have 1/2 those families with a second child girl and 1/2 with a second child boy (50-50)
rinse lather repeat and you still get 50-50 split in gender population
think of it this way, take all families and their first borns, 1/2 will have girls, 1/2 will have boys (50-50 gender population split)
now you have the remaining families (with first born girls) collectively you will have 1/2 those families with a second child girl and 1/2 with a second child boy (50-50)
rinse lather repeat and you still get 50-50 split in gender population
There is no need to speculate on this question because we have actual data - just look at China! Some of you will say, it's not the same, yes I know, but I claim that the end results will be very similar. So as of 2002, the Sex ratios (in China) are estimated as follows:
- at birth: 1.09 male(s)/female
- under 15 years: 1.1 male(s)/female
- 15-64 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
- 65 years and over: 0.89 male(s)/female
- total population: 1.06 male(s)/female.
