China, once the largest buyer of American soybeans, now sources the bulk of its supply from Brazil and other South American producers at prices far below what it historically paid the United States. Years of tariffs and trade tensions pushed China to diversify its imports, and as a result, it has secured long-term contracts and infrastructure investments that make Brazilian soybeans both cheaper and more reliable. At the same time, record harvests in South America and elsewhere have created a global glut of soybeans, driving prices down and giving China multiple markets to choose from. Even if U.S. tariffs were lifted today, China would have little incentive to return to American suppliers, as abundant global supply and competitive pricing have permanently shifted the balance of trade in soybeans.
Trump has not inflicted lasting economic damage on China, at most his policies caused a temporary setback. In contrast, his actions have dealt severe and enduring harm to the American economy.