Captain Steeeve provides the best hypothesis. He's a 777 Captain. Says it's very hard to take off without the flaps being properly configured. Only 5 degrees of flap are used on the takeoff setting, so he says the video isn't good enough to see whether or not they are out.
He speculates the co pilot brought up the flaps instead of the gear which would explain why the gear is still down.
Lift vs. Power – What Really Happened to AI171? | Captain Steeeve Reacts
I'm a fan of Cpt Steve, but I am puzzled at his assessment on this one.
Both the FO and the CPT had plenty of hours on this type of aircraft. Even if they did NOT... just on training alone, a certified pilot would know that the landing gear handle and the flaps handle are in 2 completely different sections of the cockpit. I cannot see how muscle memory would make either pilot select the wrong lever in this situation. The flaps handle is next to the thrust levers (to the right or left of a pilot) and the landing gear handle is closer to the yoke (either pilot would have to reach across the body to retract). The levers are designed differently as well. The flaps lever has notches for each setting (a notch for 0 degrees, 5, degrees, 10 degrees, ect) where you have to slide out and then pull down or up. The landing gear lever is a straight up or down motion. The landing gear lever also has a rounded shape holder (it looks and feels like a wheel). They are also designed in such a way that the motion of moving the lever is the same as the motion of the item you are trying to move. You move the flaps lever from front to back (just like how the flaps move front to back) and you move the landing gear level up and down (just like how the landing gear drops down and retracts upwards).
There are certain situations where the pilot in command would NOT raise the landing gear up immediately after takeoff. If they deem their is a reason for a go around or an emergency landing, the landing gear would stay in the locked position. If the PIC didn't believe the aircraft achieved "positive rate/climb" then he would not call out "gear up."
The Cpt also called out a mayday call of " Mayday... no thrust, losing power, unable to lift"
The survivor also stated he heard a loud BANG after takeoff.
I understand that we have to take both the Cpt's mayday call and the survivors statement with a grain of salt. The Cpt may have been mistaken with "no thrust" and the survivor may have heard something that sounded like a loud bang, but it could have been anything (luggage shifting, ect).
I also don't understand how ANYONE can tell the flaps setting by the videos on the internet. The NTSB will use sophisticated computers to analyze the video, and they will truly be able to tell what flap settings were set (or retracted in flight).
I'm not saying Cpt Steve is wrong, nor am I saying I am correct. NOBODY knows. I was just surprised that was his assessment based on his experience as a pilot. Unless it was intentional, the chances of ANY trained commercial pilot with plenty of hours of flight time moving the WRONG lever during a routine take off just doesn't seem plausible to me.
With that being said, it looks like the tail section survived the crash, and that's where the 2 black boxes are located. Hopefully, they kept recording properly, and we'll have our answer soon enough.