enduser1 said:
The problem is basically mathematical. If we assume the world has 2 trillion barrels of every kind of oil left, and we cut oil consumption to 2 million barrels a day the world has enough oil for over 2,700 years. If we cut consumption to 10 million we have 540 years. If we increase consumption to 100 million we have 54 years. But that means every kind of oil from oil sands to shale to sending robot mining equipment to rip open the played out oil fields and to rescue trapped oil.
EU
Yes and no.
When it comes to resources human tend to choose the easiest and use the 'best first' principle. This results in declining net energy, receding horizons, environmental limitations, non-energy input limits, geopolitical resource grab etc.
Which means the downward side of energy use will not be pumped and sold using the same rules as the first half, and that substitutes, in the true and practical economic sense, would not scale quickly enough in quantity or quality. So I really believed (and still do) that see huge change facing our civilization.
Tar sands are being utilized at the tail end of oil usage because they are difficult and not easy to use and require high energy and other resources to extract. The "shale oil" is actually kerogen - what oil was a few million years ago before it was baked over time by heat from pressure. To utilize shale we would like have to dig it out and "cook" it. Using more energy resources than we get out of the whole process. So its likely to be a non starter.
Plus we have to manage how we reduce fossil fuel use. For example the green revolution in food production has been accomplished by the heavy use of fossil fuels in argriculture. Its now about 10 units of energy to produce 1 unit of food. When energy has been cheap we have exponentially increased farm yields and population globally. Shrink the energy use and the food supply shrinks.
Thankfully I can easily get to the downtown strip clubs, SP's and MPs !!