If you want to see the actual chance of death and infection look at the cruise ships. The ships did put on quartine protocols, but not near as serious - only known effected where quarantined at start - it the closest we have to a controlled environment -about what a masked, limited quarantine would get with nothing closed (but people sent home if sick - similar to the the schools now) to no quarantine at all.
The early pre-quartine numbers had a death rate of about 0%, as the virus was still in its early stags with a rise to about 6% then a drop with some precautions to about 2% - finally deaths were brought to zero with only 1% or so people being infected at all (the point that we are at, thought stuck in a enclosed place, so bad air circulation)
Percuations of course varied in different ships - anyone with decent quarantine had 0 dead.
The Ruby Princess with 2700 passengers had 28 dead, about 1% kill rate. Infections where 852 or a 31% infected rate, and a 3% kill rate of those infected.
It is noteworthy these where rich well taken care of victims with the best modern medicine had to offer, without full hospitalization. Medical treatment was limited on the ships - worse than you get in Canada but better than most of the world.
Proper quarantine would lower death to zero, but left unchecked we can have around a 33% infected rate with around 1./2 to 3% of those of serious risk of death. In Ontario that would mean at worst 2 million sick, and only at most a little over 100,000 dead. Probably closer to 20,000 with a risk groups like Terb losing a few hundred. In about the same time frame we expect all forms of cancer to kill about 11,000 people - so the virus is a bit like giving everyone cancer , a bit worse and see who survives.
A natural disaster like the Tidal wave in Japan killed about 16,000 people about the same, and local worse than covid economically -but nationally hardly noticed except for high cost of goverment spending
The risk of dying in a herd immunity is probably less than 1/2 a percent in one year, far worse than normal deaths - or the chances of getting heads on coin flip 7 times in a row.
SO if given the choice a bet, staying home for year, or taking a coin flip 7 times and ifits heads 7 times in a row you;d die which would you do? Would one head stop you, two in row, when would you take that chance?
Obviosuly as long as most people follow quartine the chances are much much lower, not 7 flips but 70.
I might take the flip of the upside of winning where high - say millions of dollars if I win. Ive done extreme sports and your odds are much better. Skydiving has about 5 deaths per million, or if everyone in Ontario skydived we would expect about 30 deaths.
From that metric Covid is about 666 times more dangerous than skydiving. With a quartine, as pointed out, not even close to the averge person (that is your probly never going to get it and even if you do, your be fine most of the time)
en.wikipedia.org
