1 in 12 now unemployed
- Thread starter fuji
- Start date
There is overcapacity worldwide. 20 million unemployed in China. Sony and Panasonic cutting jobs in several countries, including JAPAN.
Those numbers do not paint the complete picture.
I am not sure how they arrive at those numbers but a lot of people have questioned them.
If someone works at Tim Hortons for timbits they are considered employed. They are hiring, go work there.
If someone has given up they are not on the list.
General rule of thumb is to double the number
I am not sure how they arrive at those numbers but a lot of people have questioned them.
If someone works at Tim Hortons for timbits they are considered employed. They are hiring, go work there.
If someone has given up they are not on the list.
General rule of thumb is to double the number
That's a funny concept, "overcapacity worldwide". Does that mean that everyone has already got everything they need, and nobody wants anything more?
If you took money out of the equation the economy is about producing something and trading it to someone else. The more stuff that gets created, the more everybody has. Money is supposed to smooth that process out, but plainly sometimes it makes a hash of it.
At some level this is not about "overcapacity" but about something getting gummed up somewhere that has interfered with the trading relationship--as I imagine there are people who want those excess goods and services, and that those people are capable of producing something useful in return.
If you took money out of the equation the economy is about producing something and trading it to someone else. The more stuff that gets created, the more everybody has. Money is supposed to smooth that process out, but plainly sometimes it makes a hash of it.
At some level this is not about "overcapacity" but about something getting gummed up somewhere that has interfered with the trading relationship--as I imagine there are people who want those excess goods and services, and that those people are capable of producing something useful in return.
Yup, those numbers understate the size of the loss to the economy. People who are under-utilized, or people who are not actively looking for work, but who would if there was work to be had.261252 said:I am not sure how they arrive at those numbers but a lot of people have questioned them.
Every one of those people could be producing something of value which would make the shared pie bigger, which could be distributed to others and would enrich us all.
How many TV sets, cars, houses, condos, suits, shoes, watches, computers, Starbucks coffee, etc. does one need/want? I need another 3-4 women but that is another story. Besides, I am currently "between projects" so I can't afford that second Mercedes.fuji said:Does that mean that everyone has already got everything they need, and nobody wants anything more?
Back in July 2008, the "Big Guy" pointed to the Toronto skyline and said: "There are 180 fucking cranes. We don't need that many condos." Overcapacity, it is overcapacity. Even GM is smart enough to know about overcapacity.
I think the answer is, "more than they have", and I think that is always the answer. I think human desire is unlimited.Rockslinger said:How many TV sets, cars, houses, condos, suits, shoes, watches, computers, Starbucks coffee, etc. does one need/want?
Which means ultimately that the limit on the economy is not "overcapacity", but rather something else that relates to inadequecies in our economic model.
It's not that people don't want the stuff that has been produced--they do--many are in fact right now doing without stuff that they want very badly.
Over-simplified, right now people want stuff that they could be producing, but they aren't producing it because they don't have a job, and the reason why they don't have a job is because nobody wants the stuff that they could be producing? Something is wrong with that.
But, but you are "Mr. Lucky". If this can happen to you, it can happen to anyone.Mr. Lucky said:I'm applying today for unemployment.
Yup it is true there will always be a good solution.Rockslinger said:But, but you are "Mr. Lucky". If this can happen to you, it can happen to anyone.
Besides 3 years with the same company I think I need a little break!
If you don't like over capacity, how about insufficient demand.... different sides of the same coin.....fuji said:That's a funny concept, "overcapacity worldwide". Does that mean that everyone has already got everything they need, and nobody wants anything more?
If you took money out of the equation the economy is about producing something and trading it to someone else. The more stuff that gets created, the more everybody has. Money is supposed to smooth that process out, but plainly sometimes it makes a hash of it.
At some level this is not about "overcapacity" but about something getting gummed up somewhere that has interfered with the trading relationship--as I imagine there are people who want those excess goods and services, and that those people are capable of producing something useful in return.
OTB
Sure as a local micro-economic concept; but this is not micro-economics. What specifically do you mean by "insufficient demand" at a macro, global level?onthebottom said:If you don't like over capacity, how about insufficient demand.... different sides of the same coin....OTB
Demand is desire plus ability to pay. The problem is not with desire, but with ability to pay--but the ability to pay is itself being curtailed by the insufficient demand.
The whole thing really is a market failure, not an overcapacity issue. If it weren't for the market failure people would have the ability to pay.
Blaming the recession on "insufficient demand" or "overcapacity" is ultimately circular reasoning.
I think demand might be desire plus ability to pay plus confidence.... if you think things are good and are going to stay that way you spend - perhaps even spend forward, if you're worried about your job then you pile it up and wait for the sun to come out. That's what's happening (look at retail sales figures).fuji said:Sure as a local micro-economic concept; but this is not micro-economics. What specifically do you mean by "insufficient demand" at a macro, global level?
Demand is desire plus ability to pay. The problem is not with desire, but with ability to pay--but the ability to pay is itself being curtailed by the insufficient demand.
The whole thing really is a market failure, not an overcapacity issue. If it weren't for the market failure people would have the ability to pay.
Blaming the recession on "insufficient demand" or "overcapacity" is ultimately circular reasoning.
OTB
Sure, I agree--confidence is a big factor. The market failure is at least partly the result of people losing confidence in the market. I just don't think that is captured by terms like "ovecapacity" and "insufficient demand" which I think are circular at a global macro-economic level.
In proper micro economics demand is specified as a trade-off between two or more resources: You can have more of A in exchange for less of B, and so on. At a global macro level there is no trade-off against total consumption: We consume as much GDP as we possibly can--demand is infinite. Consumption is limited by resources, technology, productivity, etc., and in this case, market failure and psychology.
In proper micro economics demand is specified as a trade-off between two or more resources: You can have more of A in exchange for less of B, and so on. At a global macro level there is no trade-off against total consumption: We consume as much GDP as we possibly can--demand is infinite. Consumption is limited by resources, technology, productivity, etc., and in this case, market failure and psychology.
my intellectual input to this conversation goes like this, someone correct me if I am wrong:
Laissez faire - a french word meaning the theory or system of government that upholds the autonomous character of the economic order, believing that government should intervene as little as possible in the direction of economic affairs.
2. the practice or doctrine of noninterference in the affairs of others, esp. with reference to individual conduct or freedom of action.
Alan Greenspan - chairman of the reserve in the USA -was given a nobel for leading the world into this free trade Laissez faire world economics. This is the "greed is good philosphy" Meaning if you pursue your own greed an "invisible hand" will guide economics and society creating wealth for all.
It has collapsed, leading some to suspect that capitolism as we know it is over.
Greenspan admitted that in economics you have only a 60% change of being correct and putting restrictions on capitolism could also cause a recession.
Laissez faire - a french word meaning the theory or system of government that upholds the autonomous character of the economic order, believing that government should intervene as little as possible in the direction of economic affairs.
2. the practice or doctrine of noninterference in the affairs of others, esp. with reference to individual conduct or freedom of action.
Alan Greenspan - chairman of the reserve in the USA -was given a nobel for leading the world into this free trade Laissez faire world economics. This is the "greed is good philosphy" Meaning if you pursue your own greed an "invisible hand" will guide economics and society creating wealth for all.
It has collapsed, leading some to suspect that capitolism as we know it is over.
Greenspan admitted that in economics you have only a 60% change of being correct and putting restrictions on capitolism could also cause a recession.
My personal take on it is that everyone is completely freaked out and as a result, they are hoarding their cash. (The worst thing that consumers could do.) As OTB pointed out, there is a severe lack of confidence in the system right now.
I was in Minneapolis at the beginning of December and went to the "Mall of America" (yikes, as frightening as the name implies). It was a ghost town. Half empty, or half full depending on your point of view. Conversely, Sherway Gardens seemed its usual self this Christmas and despite my better judgement, I spent more money this xmas than ever before. (I know, I just got the Visa bill.)
Secondly, large companies tend to over-react (they are also freaked out) - business drops off 2%, lay off 20% of your workforce.
This isn't going to end until consumers start feeling more confident in their jobs and start spending again. When that is? Who knows, my guess would be 6 months to a year. One thing I have faith in is human avarice and the desire for stuff.
One thing is for sure, given the rock bottom interest rates right now, if you are in the market for a home reno, or a big ticket item, now is the time.
I was in Minneapolis at the beginning of December and went to the "Mall of America" (yikes, as frightening as the name implies). It was a ghost town. Half empty, or half full depending on your point of view. Conversely, Sherway Gardens seemed its usual self this Christmas and despite my better judgement, I spent more money this xmas than ever before. (I know, I just got the Visa bill.)
Secondly, large companies tend to over-react (they are also freaked out) - business drops off 2%, lay off 20% of your workforce.
This isn't going to end until consumers start feeling more confident in their jobs and start spending again. When that is? Who knows, my guess would be 6 months to a year. One thing I have faith in is human avarice and the desire for stuff.
One thing is for sure, given the rock bottom interest rates right now, if you are in the market for a home reno, or a big ticket item, now is the time.
I think james has made a good point. I know I am. I'm holding off making any unnecessary purchases until I get some cash flow going again. If I feel this way you can bet there are millions more like me.
But as for over capacity. That is not an unknown thing. In North America at any given moment there is a vehicle for every man woman child and baby currently in existance (in north america, not the world lol). So, if new cars are produced at a higher rate than babies being born, there is an oversupply. No bones about it. As someone stated: how many computers does one family need? The way I've seen it, some families feel they need one per person, then one spare.
We also have to look at the greening effect. I think people are finally getting it into their head that more isn't better. Instead of buying a new something or other, they reuse it or give it to someone who needs it.
Another example would be aluminum. If a company can use recycled aluminum to produce their widget, and instead of buying virgin aluminum from a producer, that means the producer's demand is reduced, the mining of the boxite ore is reduced etc etc.
I think during a boom period, people spend spend spend on things they don't really need. For eg: how many woman have a brand new pair of shoes in their closet that they've never worn? Maybe in an economic climate such as ours, she won't buy that pair of shoes. (lol ok, stop laughing, we all know woman MUST BUY SHOES and would give up food for a pair of Jimmy Chu's)
But as for over capacity. That is not an unknown thing. In North America at any given moment there is a vehicle for every man woman child and baby currently in existance (in north america, not the world lol). So, if new cars are produced at a higher rate than babies being born, there is an oversupply. No bones about it. As someone stated: how many computers does one family need? The way I've seen it, some families feel they need one per person, then one spare.
We also have to look at the greening effect. I think people are finally getting it into their head that more isn't better. Instead of buying a new something or other, they reuse it or give it to someone who needs it.
Another example would be aluminum. If a company can use recycled aluminum to produce their widget, and instead of buying virgin aluminum from a producer, that means the producer's demand is reduced, the mining of the boxite ore is reduced etc etc.
I think during a boom period, people spend spend spend on things they don't really need. For eg: how many woman have a brand new pair of shoes in their closet that they've never worn? Maybe in an economic climate such as ours, she won't buy that pair of shoes. (lol ok, stop laughing, we all know woman MUST BUY SHOES and would give up food for a pair of Jimmy Chu's)
Last edited:
How can this be???? Everyone I work with has a job....fuji said:Recession cranking through jobs, unemployment rate in Ontario cities now ranges from about 8% in Toronto to 12% in Windsor.
So riddle me this, why is gas consumption down when the price has dropped by half?fuji said:Sure, I agree--confidence is a big factor. The market failure is at least partly the result of people losing confidence in the market. I just don't think that is captured by terms like "ovecapacity" and "insufficient demand" which I think are circular at a global macro-economic level.
In proper micro economics demand is specified as a trade-off between two or more resources: You can have more of A in exchange for less of B, and so on. At a global macro level there is no trade-off against total consumption: We consume as much GDP as we possibly can--demand is infinite. Consumption is limited by resources, technology, productivity, etc., and in this case, market failure and psychology.
There isn't infinite or finite demand, it expands and contracts with confidence. Markets grow, over heat and crash (tulips, .com stocks, houses.....) and these forces expand and contract demand.
OTB
