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mandrill

mandrill

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mellowjello said:
I don't know what winning or losing means at this point unless we know what the real motive for this war is and what the outcome is.
Why would Israel want the U.S. to "lose"?
If Israel becomes the dominant power it will be because of the U.S. , Israel has been able to survive the last 80 years only because of the U.S.
Israel couldn't even defeat Hamas without endless money and weapons from the U.S.
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It's what I wrestle with also.

I hate the ayatollahs and enjoy seeing them get droned. But that doesn't work with an entrenched power structure that simply endlessly replaces toasted leaders - unlike Venezuela where Trump simply cut a deal with Maduro's equally corrupt 2iC.

If I was really planning to support a popular insurrection in Iran, I would have major CIA involvement with the popular resistance, including arms supply to opposition groups and encouragement to them to begin armed resistance and a build-up over the next 5 years until the regime becomes untenable. Simply droning the ayatollah leadership is going to do nothing except piss Iran off and rally the Iranian people behind their wackjob clergy.

There appears to be no strategy here for the USA. I cannot even see what Israel gets out of this scenario.
 
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mellowjello

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Phil C. McNasty said:
Hamas was never completely defeated, but their military capabilities have been reduced to almost zero and Gaza was turned into rubble.
Thats as close to a military victory as you can come
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I agree.
I really meant to say 'wouldn't be able' to instead of 'couldn't.'
 
Shaquille Oatmeal

Shaquille Oatmeal

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mellowjello said:
I don't know what winning or losing means at this point unless we know what the real motive for this war is and what the outcome is.
Why would Israel want the U.S. to "lose"?
If Israel becomes the dominant power it will be because of the U.S. , Israel has been able to survive the last 80 years only because of the U.S.
Israel couldn't even defeat Hamas without endless money and weapons from the U.S.
Click to expand...
mandrill said:
I cannot even see what Israel gets out of this scenario.
Click to expand...
He explains it here:
 
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Shaquille Oatmeal

Shaquille Oatmeal

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mandrill said:
No ground invasion. Iran is a country of 100 million people - most of whom probably still support the regime, particularly against a foreign invader. Iran has massive mountain ranges on its Western borders and also huge deserts.

Plus, you would have to land troops and conduct a beachhead assault to even get onto Iranian soil in the southwest and THEN get across a massive mountain range.
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Most importantly they'd have to hold the country captive after invading, god knows for how long against 100M motivated citizens who now want to free their nation.
 
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oil&gas

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Ghawar
mandrill said:
There appears to be no strategy here for the USA. I cannot even see what Israel gets out of this scenario.
Click to expand...
I suspect Israel/Netanyahu has Trump meeting his eventual demise
in the midst of a protracted war in their calculation.
Israel has nukes. With U.S. material and financial support Israel can
still fight on its own. Of course it would be great if Trump
could be manipulated into putting boots on the ground in Tehran
to sacrifice American in place of Israeli lives. But seeing Trump being
the chicken shit he is Israel may as well take over. Only without the
presence of the U.S. military can the vision of Greater Israel be realized.
 
Shaquille Oatmeal

Shaquille Oatmeal

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mellowjello said:
I don't know what winning or losing means at this point unless we know what the real motive for this war is and what the outcome is.
Why would Israel want the U.S. to "lose"?
If Israel becomes the dominant power it will be because of the U.S. , Israel has been able to survive the last 80 years only because of the U.S.
Israel couldn't even defeat Hamas without endless money and weapons from the U.S.
Click to expand...
mandrill said:
I cannot even see what Israel gets out of this scenario.
Click to expand...
Also in addition to that video, here are my own thoughts, piggy backing off of Prof. Jiang's game theory:
In game theory, which Prof. Jiang uses, actors are assumed to be rational entities maximizing their own interests or utility. While Israel and the US are close allies, their utility functions regarding Iran are not identical.
  1. If the US wins a "clean" war, it might quickly exit the Middle East to focus on China. A prolonged, grinding stalemate ensures the US remains entrapped. As long as the US is bogged down it is forced to maintain a massive military presence and provide high levels of aid and intelligence to its primary regional surrogate, Israel.
  2. A decisive US victory might lead to a stable, democratic, or US-aligned Iran, potentially diminishing Israel's unique status as the "only reliable US ally." If the US cannot handle Iran alone, Israel's value increases, giving it more leverage over Washington’s foreign policy which can be leveraged to support the Greater Israel project.
  3. Israel wants Iran's nuclear and proxy capabilities destroyed, but it doesn't want to pay the price. If the US technically fails its political objectives (like regime change), Israel still wins. In this sense, a US failure s a strategic victory for Israel if the US absorbs all the damage while neutralizing Israel's rival.
  4. If the US is bloodied by Iran, the American public and political elite will have no appetite for a bargain or lifting sanctions. This ensures Iran remains a pariah state, which aligns with Israel's long-term goal of keeping Iran isolated and economically weak .
 
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Butler1000

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Phil C. McNasty said:
They can, but the Red Sea is harder for them to hit the tankers



Yes, it is generally harder for Iran to directly strike oil tankers in the Red Sea than in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz offers a significant geographic advantage for Iran, with, as noted by shipping broker SSY Global on Reuters, only two-nautical-mile-wide shipping lanes allowing for rapid, close-range attacks using missiles, drones, and small craft, as described in this article from The New York Times. In contrast, the Red Sea is a much broader, more exposed maritime area.
Strait of Hormuz (Higher Threat Environment for Tankers):
  • Geographic Chokepoint: The strait is narrow, forcing ships close to Iranian territory. This allows for easy deployment of asymmetric threats like swarms of fast-attack boats, drones, and mines, as discussed in this article from The New York Times and on Ynetnews.
  • Direct Access: Iran can launch attacks directly from its mainland or nearby islands, notes The Guardian.
  • High Insurance Risk: As reported on Winnipeg Free Press and by CNBC on Yahoo, insurance premiums are exceptionally high here, indicating high danger.
Red Sea (Lower Direct Threat from Iran):
  • Greater Distance: The Red Sea is significantly further from Iran, reducing its ability to use its own assets for surprise attacks compared to the Persian Gulf.
  • Reliance on Proxies: While the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have attacked shipping in the Red Sea, these strikes are less immediate than the direct threats posed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Hormuz strait, as discussed on Ynetnews and Yahoo.
  • More Space: The wider, more open water allows more room for naval defense and surveillance, notes Foreign Affairs.
While Iran can use proxies in the Red Sea, the logistical challenges and distance make it a less effective venue for shutting down traffic compared to its ability to instantly threaten the narrow lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, says Chatham House and The New York Times.
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They don't have to hit the tankers.

They can hit the pipelines anywhere along the miles if it to shut it down. They can hit the oil fields, they can hit the stirage and refineries.

Or, they can drop a few near misses, and put insurance rates up so high that they won't go.

Iran isn't stopping. How far will they go. Trump is no longer in control of the situation imo.
 
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Insidious Von

Insidious Von

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Oh what a surprise, The Greatest President in American History is sending in The Marines to take over the Strait of Hormuz. This war is costing the Axis of Evil $2 billion a day.

 
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SchlongConery

SchlongConery

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mandrill said:
“Through a detailed planning process, the entire administration is and was prepared for any potential action taken by the terrorist Iranian regime,” spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, while touting the US military’s success.
Click to expand...
To be announced after Trump's Health Care plan from his first Presidential campaign is announced! 😂
 
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SchlongConery

SchlongConery

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mandrill said:
Trump has to be the dumbest asshole fucktard in the history of the world to not have realized that Iran would immediately block the Straits of Hormuz and force the US to its knees.

Trump has no strategy and he and his little team of bizarre losers are incapable of coming up with any strategy that can save America from being totally humiliated in this conflict.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

Operation Epstein Fury was a knee jerk-off reaction.

What's next? 🤷‍♂️
 
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SchlongConery

SchlongConery

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Butler1000 said:
Bypasses and pipelines won't stop hypersonic missiles and drones hitting them.

Phil at this point you need to start wrapping your head around the fact "we" is about to be broken apart. The Gulf states are not going to have a choice. All USA bases are toast moving forward. The Muslims are going to get together and start working their shit out.

The US tech has been proven to be ineffective against cheap drones and new missiles. They can't produce enough to stop mass production.

It's going to be a very different world in 6 months to a year. Thanks to Trump and Bibi.
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And ultimately, thanks to Vlad.

It was Vlad that invested in Trump decades ago as a longshot. Now that longshot has paid off, in spades.

Except that Biden slow walked the military aid to Ukraine and put stupid limits on it. Ukraine said "Fine, we'll figure something out"

So Ukraine changed the entire face of the battlefield and world security by making drones and their own UAV's and missiles etc. In the process, rendering much of the US military and associated industry very vulnerable.

All these follow on consequences of failing to do the right thing and arm and defend Ukraine in a timely manner is a significant factor. And that Trumputin has cut off aid to Ukraine while doing nothing except easing sanctions on Russia AT THE SAME TIME Russia was providing targeting data for US bases to Iran !
 
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SchlongConery

SchlongConery

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Phil C. McNasty said:
If Trump send in ground troops it'll be the 2nd biggest mistake he makes.

But even if he does, I doubt there will be a draft
Click to expand...
You do realize that even your simple arguments, least of all the more fully articulated discussions here, are WAYYYYYYYYY above the attention span of your toddler hero?
 
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crocket

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