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China's Real Estate Collapse Sends Local Debt To Record $18.9 Trillion

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40micmic

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Nov 12, 2014
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Frankfooter said:
Fair point, but what you can buy on $5/day in China is much different than what you get in america.
The point being that China is trending up while america is trending down.
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Hard to argue that this is trending up. Coming from a bigger city and my parents being "middle income" i didnt have to experience the brunt of economic hardship. But this is what $5/day gets you in china nowadays (and im not talking about the tier 1or 2 cities)

For $5 (around 36 RMB) a day in China, a person can afford basic, nutritious meals focusing on staples like rice, vegetables, eggs, and some meat, often through street food or budget eateries, but covering rent, utilities, transport, and extras is extremely difficult, as this budget barely covers food, especially in cities, but it allows for substantial, varied eating if all money goes to groceries.

Here is a bit more info about those who rely on an agricultural pension (approx 200M):

The average monthly pension for an agricultural (rural) pensioner in China is typically very low, generally ranging from approximately 100 to 250 yuan per month (about $14 to $35 USD), with the exact amount varying by region and contribution level.
This amount is significantly lower than the average pension for urban residents, highlighting a major disparity in China's pension system.
Average Rural Pension: Recent estimates suggest an average of less than 200 yuan per month, with specific reports citing figures around 112 yuan, 188 yuan, or 243 yuan depending on the source and year.
Comparison to Urban Pensions: In contrast, the average monthly pension for urban employees can exceed 3,000 yuan, and for government officials, it averages over 6,000 yuan.
Purpose and Impact: The rural pension is often described as only enough to cover basic living expenses like "oil and salt". Due to the low sum, many rural elderly continue to work well past the official retirement age to support themselves.
System Structure: The pension for rural residents is part of the Urban and Rural Residents Pension Scheme (URRPS), a voluntary program where individuals contribute based on various levels and receive a basic government subsidy plus payments from an individual account.

This shows that this eradicating poverty is complete propagandized B.S. Anyways you got any more of those charts comparing poverty in China vs the U.S.
 
F

Frankfooter

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40micmic said:
Id argue that in order to be trending up, a number like 300 million that drink contaminated water on a daily basis probably should be lower (for reference that is like the entire population of the U.S.)
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Sure, but use per capita stats since the countries are such different sizes.
I expect that clean water stats are trending down in the states.
 
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Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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40micmic said:
Hard to argue that this is trending up. Coming from a bigger city and my parents being "middle income" i didnt have to experience the brunt of economic hardship. But this is what $5/day gets you in china nowadays (and im not talking about the tier 1or 2 cities)

For $5 (around 36 RMB) a day in China, a person can afford basic, nutritious meals focusing on staples like rice, vegetables, eggs, and some meat, often through street food or budget eateries, but covering rent, utilities, transport, and extras is extremely difficult, as this budget barely covers food, especially in cities, but it allows for substantial, varied eating if all money goes to groceries.

Here is a bit more info about those who rely on an agricultural pension (approx 200M):

The average monthly pension for an agricultural (rural) pensioner in China is typically very low, generally ranging from approximately 100 to 250 yuan per month (about $14 to $35 USD), with the exact amount varying by region and contribution level.
This amount is significantly lower than the average pension for urban residents, highlighting a major disparity in China's pension system.
Average Rural Pension: Recent estimates suggest an average of less than 200 yuan per month, with specific reports citing figures around 112 yuan, 188 yuan, or 243 yuan depending on the source and year.
Comparison to Urban Pensions: In contrast, the average monthly pension for urban employees can exceed 3,000 yuan, and for government officials, it averages over 6,000 yuan.
Purpose and Impact: The rural pension is often described as only enough to cover basic living expenses like "oil and salt". Due to the low sum, many rural elderly continue to work well past the official retirement age to support themselves.
System Structure: The pension for rural residents is part of the Urban and Rural Residents Pension Scheme (URRPS), a voluntary program where individuals contribute based on various levels and receive a basic government subsidy plus payments from an individual account.

This shows that this eradicating poverty is complete propagandized B.S. Anyways you got any more of those charts comparing poverty in China vs the U.S.
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How many million in the states relied on Snap funding to cover food?
They all got cut off and a ton will be cut off from health care in Jan as well.

But yeah, americans don't live in huts without central heating mostly but the poor in the states likely have to eat crappier food as their options.
I'm sure it sucks to be poor in both places.

One of the things I've noticed travelling around is that globally living standards are rising just as we are suffering more homeless and poverty around here.
 
C

Ceiling Cat

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Feb 25, 2009
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40micmic said:
Quite different scenarios. China is still steeped in poverty. And if you think the U.S. is impoverished, you havent seen the world my friend.
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China is likely the country best positioned to withstand a global economic downturn. For the past 25 years, it has absorbed a massive inflow of capital from around the world. In return, other nations benefited from lower-cost consumer goods, which helped raise living standards and provided broad economic relief.
Global economies move in cycles, rising and falling over time. Within our lifetimes, we’ve already seen several of these cycles. The last major recession occurred during the 2007–2009 subprime crisis. By 2019, another downturn was overdue, but massive government stimulus worldwide during the pandemic delayed it. However, the disruptive tariff policies introduced by Trump helped fuel inflation and may have undermined the stabilizing effects of that stimulus.
If the world enters a recession now, China is likely to be the first major economy to recover, given the sheer scale and strength of its industrial base. Poverty in China has dropped dramatically over the past quarter-century, and millions who were once impoverished now have stable employment and access to social support programs. In practical terms, someone earning the equivalent of $10,000 a year in China can often enjoy a better standard of living than someone earning $35,000 a year in Canada, due to lower costs and broader government support.
 
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40micmic

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2014
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Ceiling Cat said:
China is likely the country best positioned to withstand a global economic downturn. For the past 25 years, it has absorbed a massive inflow of capital from around the world. In return, other nations benefited from lower-cost consumer goods, which helped raise living standards and provided broad economic relief.
Global economies move in cycles, rising and falling over time. Within our lifetimes, we’ve already seen several of these cycles. The last major recession occurred during the 2007–2009 subprime crisis. By 2019, another downturn was overdue, but massive government stimulus worldwide during the pandemic delayed it. However, the disruptive tariff policies introduced by Trump helped fuel inflation and may have undermined the stabilizing effects of that stimulus.
If the world enters a recession now, China is likely to be the first major economy to recover, given the sheer scale and strength of its industrial base. Poverty in China has dropped dramatically over the past quarter-century, and millions who were once impoverished now have stable employment and access to social support programs. In practical terms, someone earning the equivalent of $10,000 a year in China can often enjoy a better standard of living than someone earning $35,000 a year in Canada, due to lower costs and broader government support.
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Lol. Do you know how many people earn over 10000 a year in china??? Do you know what the disparity between urban and rural incomes are (spoiler alert: average incomes in the urban areas are pretty shit too) Are pensions of 200 rmb/mth sustainable to live for anyone? Do you know how many people go bankrupt in china due to high medical costs? When chinas aging demographic has gone from 15 workers to 1 to 2 to 1 by 2040, is this a country that can sustain its industrial base. Is 20%+ (and most likely way understated) youth unemployment count as "stable" employment?

You are completely out of your depth and always seem to make some of the most outlandish claims when it comes to china.
 
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40micmic

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Nov 12, 2014
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Frankfooter said:
How many million in the states relied on Snap funding to cover food?
They all got cut off and a ton will be cut off from health care in Jan as well.

But yeah, americans don't live in huts without central heating mostly but the poor in the states likely have to eat crappier food as their options.
I'm sure it sucks to be poor in both places.

One of the things I've noticed travelling around is that globally living standards are rising just as we are suffering more homeless and poverty around here.
Click to expand...
Its kind of crazy that america, the capitalist imperialist of the world, has way more social programs and safety nets for its citizens (and non citizens) than socialist darling child china.

And i think the fundamental difference is that in china they were promised that if they work hard, give up their rights, they could achieve the chinese dream of moderate prosperity. I mean the 9-9-6 work culture is what the 80s to present were all about and the government will take care of you when you are old. This is obviously not the case with the pension figures i mentioned above.

In the U.S., the american dream is quite different. If you work hard you can achieve things for yourself and if you fall, there are some social safety nets in place to help you get back on your feet. Unfortunately, those safety nets have been abused but i guarantee you that if americans on SNAP picked up their own feet and adopted a similar work culture to chinese workers they would experience success and not be dependant on SNAP.
 
B

Butler1000

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Oct 31, 2011
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southpaw said:
Aren't prices already 15-20% below the peak in 2022? Seems like there's room to drop further.
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Um, not that I've seen. Year over year volume has dropped. But prices seem to be single digit only down.

Greater Toronto home sales fall in November as prices, new listings decline: board - CMT News https://share.google/LdPkBxt47TmzZJrig

Some are saying 25% from peak 2021 when low rates were in. I can see that. But I monitor my local pricing every few months and right now it's 15% range.

I think its starts to stabilize as the listing volume drops as well. Right now all the big changes to immigration, tariffs, interest rates, economic vibe stability are depressing things. But unless you have to sell things will come up again in maybe 3 years or so.

I will add a misread of what to build is affecting things. Tiny places are seeing bigger price drops which is hurting the average.

Bank of Canada done cutting rates at least until 2027; house prices to rebound soon: Reuters Poll https://share.google/Wqa4yZFldq4yizr1A

Another analysis.
 
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F

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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40micmic said:
Its kind of crazy that america, the capitalist imperialist of the world, has way more social programs and safety nets for its citizens (and non citizens) than socialist darling child china.

And i think the fundamental difference is that in china they were promised that if they work hard, give up their rights, they could achieve the chinese dream of moderate prosperity. I mean the 9-9-6 work culture is what the 80s to present were all about and the government will take care of you when you are old. This is obviously not the case with the pension figures i mentioned above.

In the U.S., the american dream is quite different. If you work hard you can achieve things for yourself and if you fall, there are some social safety nets in place to help you get back on your feet. Unfortunately, those safety nets have been abused but i guarantee you that if americans on SNAP picked up their own feet and adopted a similar work culture to chinese workers they would experience success and not be dependant on SNAP.
Click to expand...
Except that the states are now in end state capitalism. Like the game monopoly was created to warn about, most of american media, business, manufacturing, food and pretty much everything is in the hands of a 1-5 companies that are essentially monopolies. Like google and amazon and their market control. This was sold on the american dream, the idea you can start from nothing and become rich, but that has become a myth, with all the billionaires now starting from money.

The better model is the european social democracy, with more control over market and more social programs.
 
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40micmic

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Frankfooter said:
Except that the states are now in end state capitalism. Like the game monopoly was created to warn about, most of american media, business, manufacturing, food and pretty much everything is in the hands of a 1-5 companies that are essentially monopolies. Like google and amazon and their market control. This was sold on the american dream, the idea you can start from nothing and become rich, but that has become a myth, with all the billionaires now starting from money.

The better model is the european social democracy, with more control over market and more social programs.
Click to expand...
So you see what is happening as an allegory to a board game? This is basically a marxist theory.

What i see is market forces naturally dictating supply and demand and as a result we are gifted with continuous innovations to advance society. There are some corrections along the way.

Also there are plenty of recent examples of billionaires who came from extremely modest beginnings so i dont agree that the american dream is dead at all.
 
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Frankfooter

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40micmic said:
So you see what is happening as an allegory to a board game? This is basically a marxist theory.

What i see is market forces naturally dictating supply and demand and as a result we are gifted with continuous innovations to advance society. y There are some corrections along the way.

Also there are plenty of recent examples of billionaires who came from extremely modest beginnings so i dont agree that the american dream is dead at all.
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I see your views as coloured by your own personal history, as are mine.
You don't want to see issues with capitalism, I want to compare all systems to see what works.

America is in end state capitalism.
 
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40micmic

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Nov 12, 2014
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Frankfooter said:
I see your views as coloured by your own personal history, as are mine.
You don't want to see issues with capitalism, I want to compare all systems to see what works.

America is in end state capitalism.
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Of course it is influenced by my own personal history. Of course there are issues with capitalism. I feel the pros of capitalism and innovation outweigh the cons. Can it be tweak, sure. If you think european social democracy is a superior system than i welcome those arguments. But if you are going to argue that socialism with chinese characteristics is a superior system, i can assure you that you really have no idea and i will refute any talking points you have.
 
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Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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40micmic said:
Of course it is influenced by my own personal history. Of course there are issues with capitalism. I feel the pros of capitalism and innovation outweigh the cons. Can it be tweak, sure. If you think european social democracy is a superior system than i welcome those arguments. But if you are going to argue that socialism with chinese characteristics is a superior system, i can assure you that you really have no idea and i will refute any talking points you have.
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I'd just argue that the american form of capitalism is not a good model any more than the composite communist/authoritarian state/capitalism of China is great.
Northern European systems are doing better for their people in general, though I'm sure you can argue economically they aren't. But then they are also likely way more sustainable as they aren't built to rely on infinite growth.
 
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