I think that's a big if as far as Democrats running a moderate. The progressive wing of the party has become extremely more vocal and demanding within the party. With that strong pull to the left, it's not easy for the party to move to the center. If you recall the Clinton-Gore moderation, the Republicans won three elections in a row fairly handily before that. I'd say the country is a little more liberal than 1992 and the Democratic party has moved much further left from that center point. (Vance could be deemed too conservative, but I'm not totally sure of his personal policy alignment.)
I like Shapiro, but I don't see him doing well in many state primaries. Even if he does well in early primaries, the crowd will winnow down to him and a candidate the left prefers. Perhaps that's Newsom. The advantage Newsom has is he can talk like a moderate. Republicans would have to run an onslaught of commercials under a theme of this is California.
It would be healthy if a Shapiro, Whitmer or a Moore emerged, but I don't think it will be easy. Whitmer is more intriguing in my opinion because she is a woman from a purple state.
Anyway, as always the economy will play a very important part in the election. There is always the economic cycle which many people confuse or choose to portray as a controllable event when convenient. Just as important are structural economic developments like AI. If it causes large job disruption, it will be easy to pin that on Republicans. If that's the case, it will be a headache during the economic transformation for both parties as well as all industrialized countries. Canada will not be spared.
I say that specifically about Canada because I think some here are holding fantastical ideas of some progressive revolution in the U.S. If I was early on in my career, I would choose the U.S. over all the other industrialized countries during an economic transformation.
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