California Voted In Favor Of Gerrymandering

WyattEarp

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May 17, 2017
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Why link to an article that refutes your own final statement?



Why attempt to make such a statement at all and not just stop at the truth that Republicans are more likely to gain from a redistricting war?
You can quote the article. Perhaps I did not provide an article that adequately served my point.

Is your purpose here to be argue about the article or to make a real counterpoint to the statement that Republicans have more gerrymandering opportunities?
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Look I've said before, I don't like gerrymandering.

I have to be honest with myself. I cannot feign disgust and pretend that one party is evil when they gerrymander districts and the other is righteous when they carve unrepresentative districts.

Good for California Democrats. They will have a bluer Congressional map. I don't think that yields any political benefits to the State or to the national party.
So you are withdrawing your "The Republicans have generally been a bit more reasonable with their Congressional gerrymandering" statement?
Good.

If you want to claim being against gerrymandering on principle, that's fine, whatever.

A bluer Congressional map gives benefits to the national party by definition, you know this.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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You can quote the article. Perhaps I did not provide an article that adequately served my point.

Is your purpose here to be argue about the article or to make a real counterpoint to the statement that Republicans have more gerrymandering opportunities?
I agree they have more gerrymandering opportunities.
I don't like you trying to create a false narrative about why.
 

WyattEarp

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I agree they have more gerrymandering opportunities.
I don't like you trying to create a false narrative about why.
Again, no one is saying Republican are saints.

This isn't TERB's first U.S. gerrymander rodeo. Some of the liberal membership acts like the Republicans invented gerrymandering.
Makes me want to know how their news sources package the subject.
 

squeezer

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What are you quibbling about?

The Republicans have more on the table for the future gerrymandering. I didn't say the Republicans were saints. The liberals have this sainthood baggage that they carry around.
My quibble is, do you think Gavin would have pulled this stunt if Trump didn't order Texas to redo the maps? Should the Dems just sit back and say, YES SIR, do as you please while we just sit back and play nice?
 

WyattEarp

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I agree they have more gerrymandering opportunities.
I don't like you trying to create a false narrative about why.
You have a political science background. Partisanship aside, what can be done to make congressional maps let's say less ridiculous?

I have no special knowledge. I have just a layman's concern.

Now that courts have reduced some of the burden of creating minority districts, it should be easier to create more reasonably shaped districts if the parties cooperated. I don't favor commissions. The commissions have some restraint but the members are still political appointees.

In the past, I thought there was some effort to create geographically tight districts. That eroded over time.

With the sophisticated voter data we now have, could a system be created and required where each state had to design a map with House representation relatively close the party's aggregate state vote total for the House (or Governor)? For example, a map where Republicans would be likely to win 40% of California's House seats. Likewise in Texas, Democrats would be likely to win 40% of the House seats. Of course, this would be based on the census and voting data every ten years and it would not guarantee future outcomes.
 

WyattEarp

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My quibble is, do you think Gavin would have pulled this stunt if Trump didn't order Texas to redo the maps? Should the Dems just sit back and say, YES SIR, do as you please while we just sit back and play nice?
The gerrymandering process has been in state of flux for a couple years. Wisconsin Democrats were trying to vote in new State Supreme Court Justices who would allow a redrawing of the Republican-drawn map. It's still an ongoing legal battle.

In the past, we didn't hear much of the gerrymandered districts after the census year redrawing. Now it's almost every year, all year.
While not to blame for the continuous gerrymander battles, I believe Obama's AG Eric Holder challenged Texas' 2012 Congressional maps.

You're not listening. You're trying to apply some sense of fairness to the gerrymander process.

The 2024 California map is ridiculous.
The 2024 Texas map is ridiculous.
The 2026 Texas map is more ridiculous.
The 2026 California map is more ridiculous.
Objectively, Texas Democrats currently have more representation in the U.S. House relative to their % vote totals than California Republicans.

There are now plenty of opportunities for states to change congressional maps instead of freezing them for ten years. All partisan lawyers need to do is find ways to challenge the Congressional maps under State law.
 

Frankfooter

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You're confused (again). You're thinking with your heart and not you're head. The metrics are simple if you just think through it.

The Republicans won over half the vote for the House last year. They routinely win a majority of House votes.
Yet they routinely do so with less than half of the votes.
You just don't want the gerrymandering to even the fields.

Why didn't you complain when 6 red states planned their gerrymandering for the year?

 
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Frankfooter

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You have a political science background. Partisanship aside, what can be done to make congressional maps let's say less ridiculous?

I have no special knowledge. I have just a layman's concern.
You could learn from your Canadian friends on terb and do what Canada does.
Take it out of the hands of politicians altogether and give it to the bureaucrats.

 
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jalimon

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You're confused (again). You're thinking with your heart and not you're head. The metrics are simple if you just think through it.

The Republicans won over half the vote for the House last year. They routinely win a majority of House votes.
Because they cheat. Simple.
 
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onthebottom

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Democrats have always gerrymandered
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
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Again, no one is saying Republican are saints.
And yet you tried to foist a lie on us to imply they were better than they were anyway.
Which is particularly weird given that the facts of them being more likely to win a gerrymandering war didn't need the embellishment.

You have a political science background. Partisanship aside, what can be done to make congressional maps let's say less ridiculous?
I would assume nothing you would like.
Neutral redistricting commissions is something you oppose.

Obviously, the much better idea would be to get rid of single-member districts and move to other forms of elections and voting in general, but if I recall you are against that as well.

Now that courts have reduced some of the burden of creating minority districts, it should be easier to create more reasonably shaped districts if the parties cooperated. I don't favor commissions. The commissions have some restraint but the members are still political appointees.
Again, you want the parties to cooperate more, but are against the means of them cooperating.
Canada uses a commission and transparent methodology.


Still political appointees, though, so you would be against it.

In the past, I thought there was some effort to create geographically tight districts. That eroded over time.
It's also not the only criteria people think is worth considering.

With the sophisticated voter data we now have, could a system be created and required where each state had to design a map with House representation relatively close the party's aggregate state vote total for the House (or Governor)? For example, a map where Republicans would be likely to win 40% of California's House seats. Likewise in Texas, Democrats would be likely to win 40% of the House seats. Of course, this would be based on the census and voting data every ten years and it would not guarantee future outcomes.
Yes. You can make states where the voting numbers are roughly on par with the seat distribution.
In single-member districts with first part the post, you will never get there exactly. There is always a bit of a winner's bonus.
It's why you can't just look at "percent of vote vs percent of seats" and say that something has been gerrymandered.
In fact, the more competitive the districts are, the bigger a distortion you can get.
If you win 6 seats 51-49, you will have a much bigger distortion than if you drew the maps so that the parties split 3-3 but the seats were completely non-competitive, coming in with something like 60-65 vs 40-35 each. Just a few close races going to the same party will make the partisan gap look much larger in a given election.
 

Valcazar

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The Republicans won over half the vote for the House last year. They routinely win a majority of House votes.
The overall vote proportion nationally tends not to be too distorted, even if individual states are.
Since 2000, the GOP has won the majority of House votes in 2010, 2014, and 2022
 

WyattEarp

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The overall vote proportion nationally tends not to be too distorted, even if individual states are.
Since 2000, the GOP has won the majority of House votes in 2010, 2014, and 2022
I don't want anyone to think I like gerrymandering. It's also not innocuous.

Gerrymandered districts creates too many secure House seats for both Democrats and Republicans. This extremely limits the competitive districts that force the parties to compete for the middle.
 
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Valcazar

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I don't want anyone to think I like gerrymandering. It's also not innocuous.

Gerrymandered districts creates too many secure House seats for both Democrats and Republicans. This extremely limits the competitive districts that force the parties to compete for the middle.
So would you be in favor of drawing districts primarily to promote "competitiveness"? (You seemed to prefer geography earlier in the thread.)
 

Frankfooter

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I don't want anyone to think I like gerrymandering. It's also not innocuous.

Gerrymandered districts creates too many secure House seats for both Democrats and Republicans. This extremely limits the competitive districts that force the parties to compete for the middle.
A surprisingly reasonable statement.
 

WyattEarp

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So would you be in favor of drawing districts primarily to promote "competitiveness"? (You seemed to prefer geography earlier in the thread.)
I presume congressional district maps that are more geographically cohesive would result in more competitive districts.

Going to the other extreme as Texas and California are currently, it's possible that more House members that are seated in 2028 will have to watch the middle in their districts. In other words, as the TX Republicans and CA Democrats stretch out their voters across districts some districts will be more competitive. It remains to be seen if those House members can be moderating influences on their caucuses. If recent history tells us anything, it's both caucuses don't seem to care about moderating even if it jeopardizes a few House seats every few years.

As I mentioned earlier, I said you probably have more knowledge of how this all works.
 
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WyattEarp

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And yet you tried to foist a lie on us to imply they were better than they were anyway.
Which is particularly weird given that the facts of them being more likely to win a gerrymandering war didn't need the embellishment.
No, I've been pretty clear that the Republicans play this game. When there was outrage over Republican gerrymandering, I've merely pointed out the flip side......lopsided State delegations, crazy meandering maps in Blue states.
(I don't remember if I said it earlier, but California Democrats are warranted in redistricting. If I didn't say that explicitly, I certainly didn't criticize their action.)

I would assume nothing you would like.
Neutral redistricting commissions is something you oppose.
I don't believe there is an such as a "neutral" redistricting commission.

Obviously, the much better idea would be to get rid of single-member districts and move to other forms of elections and voting in general, but if I recall you are against that as well.
I don't remember discussing anything like that. There are some intriguing ideas.

Again, you want the parties to cooperate more, but are against the means of them cooperating.
To clarify, when I mentioned party cooperation I am speaking of a one-time effort to reform the current redistricting system. There is no way to ensure party cooperation on an ongoing basis in each state. Even then, any short-term cooperation would be challenging.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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I presume congressional district maps that are more geographically cohesive would result in more competitive districts.
Unfortunately, it doesn't really correlate at all.
Those things have nothing to do with one another.
About the only thing going all-in on geography (and population, although that's a lost cause in the US since they won't expand congress) is that it has a certain impartiality to it.
You can at least point to some kind of formula involving distance and population distribution and say you're being consistent.

Going to the other extreme as Texas and California are currently, it's possible that more House members that are seated in 2028 will have to watch the middle in their districts. In other words, as the TX Republicans and CA Democrats stretch out their voters across districts some districts will be more competitive.
There are a couple of ways to approach gerrymandering.
One is to try and make seats perfectly safe. But another is to push for greater numbers of seats. Doing that does make you vulnerable to a wave election that suddenly tips a lot of seats that otherwise wouldn't have been shifted.

It remains to be seen if those House members can be moderating influences on their caucuses. If recent history tells us anything, it's both caucuses don't seem to care about moderating even if it jeopardizes a few House seats every few years.
One of the approaches in redistricting is to specifically prioritize making districts competitive. As I mentioned before, that can result in wild disconnects from the overall vote. But it does mean people never really have "safe seats".

As I mentioned earlier, I said you probably have more knowledge of how this all works.
Probably.
As I said, there really is no way to solve the issue without abolishing single-member districts and plurality voting.
You can make the redistricting decisions more transparent, but that's about it. You will always need to decide how to balance the different priorities you might want to focus on.
 
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