As I said. You are, imo, not looking at the Macro.At first, I thought you were merely a gadfly in the ointment. It can be interesting and you can offer alternative insights.
However, you have to be careful to not to throw out too many ideas that don't hold well together. Sure on social media, you will find people on both the left and the right who will simply nod along. Yeah, that's right.
Change is always going to be bad for someone. I was reading your first point that illegal immigration is part of the business model. I don't see why anything illegal has to be permanently and unofficially in code. Yeah, I know contractors who do very well that know how to tap into a steady stream of illegal migrant workers. There is an informal network in place.
If you think about economics objectively, no industry will be completely screwed. You can predict wages in sectors will go up. Industries under strain (i.e. agriculture) will lobby for temporary work visas. Will profit margins be reduced? Of course. In the short run, most certainly. If you built a business with illegal migrant labor, you were likely able to make some decent money.
When the economy changes as it always does, it's impossible to predict where supply, demand and profits will be in the future. Here's a point. The hospitality industry will adapt. Countries where the minimum wage is comparably high with tight migration have restaurants that don't offer table service in even mid-level establishments. It's obvious that many uber and taxi drivers are immigrants. Fares will go up. Technology might make drivers a moot point. The economy is always changing, innovating and adapting.
In the U.S. we are accustomed to a high level of service because as you pointed out so eloquently we have always had low wage, black market labor. Most Americans don't think that needs to be or should be informally codified. Then you can break your argument down with numbers. What is the correct number of immigrants? Did the U.S. need ten million more people come through the Southern border over the last four years. Before that, empirically wages for low-skilled were going up before that (I think that's good, yes?). There didn't seem to be any major sticking points in the labor market. I think it's healthier for the economy to have some competition for labor at all levels.
Lastly, you're forgetting that the workers in ag, hospitality, drivers etc. are not planning to stay put. They're going to try to move into better paying jobs competing with the very people many here claim to support.
To paraphrase a famous singer-songwriter, all we are saying is give restricting the supply of labor a chance.
Couple this with AI killing entry level white collar jobs and numerous mid level ones. Tariffs killing several small e commerce business models. Border controls hurting tourism. Inflation, stagflation, high interest, a real estate crisis looming, a debt crisis, both student loan and credit card looming. Higher prices due to tariffs and businesses taking advantage of this to rise domestic pricing on locally produced goods. A population now possibly where 4 generations, starting with Gen X, and definitely after, that are worse off than their parents.
Now mix in a consumer confidence drop, resulting in a downward spiral of discretionary spending by those that might waver either way normally, a bill that is trying to kill Medicaid and social services for the most vulnerable, a continuing drug crisis, and the perception growing in the populace of an indifferent and arguably hostile administration hell bent on harming them. Increasing military use and threats to use more. A surveillance state that more people are waking up too.
And that's just the domestic. Internationally the question of the USA as the reserve currency in the face of isolationism, trade wars that with cause longer term supply chain problems, and TACO which means a loss of prestige for the office in ALL things.
It is imo a powder keg years in the making. Awaiting the match. Maybe this year maybe next, but somehow I don't think the promise of a midterms correction will be enough.










