If the US president is serious about ending the war, he will need to engage seriously with the Russians’ conditions
Paul Robinson
March 14, 2025
“Yes, but,” might be the best way of summarizing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the joint US-Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine that emerged from talks between American and Ukrainian delegates in Jeddah earlier this week. “We are for it, but there are nuances,” he told reporters. Any ceasefire should be permanent, not temporary, and should address the root causes of the war. Besides which, there were unanswered questions, said Putin. Would the ceasefire be used to rearm Ukraine? Who would monitor the ceasefire, prevent violations, and ensure that fighting did not again erupt? These issues, he said would have to be discussed with the Americans before moving forward.
This was, one might say, a polite way of rejecting the ceasefire proposal without actually rejecting it, while leaving the door open for further negotiations and for the possibility of a ceasefire of a different sort at some future point. The reasons for the rejection are clear. From a military standpoint, Ukraine has a lot more to gain from a ceasefire than Russia, especially a temporary ceasefire of the sort being proposed. The Russians have also made it clear again and again that they are not interested in ending the war in a way that leaves key issues unsettled. Such an ending would create a situation in which there was a perpetual danger of renewed conflict. Since European states are saying that they wish to use a ceasefire to arm Ukraine to the teeth (turning it into a “steel porcupine,” according to EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen) and are also talking about sending troops to Ukraine in such circumstances, Moscow has some reasons to regard such an outcome with trepidation. It would put it in a position of permanent worry and insecurity.
Events on the frontline this week have further strengthened the Russians’ determination to press their military advantage. The past seven days have witnessed one of the most significant Russian victories of the war, routing the Ukrainian forces that have been occupying part of Russia’s Kursk province since last summer.
The Ukrainian position in Kursk had become very precarious over the past two months, as Russian advances brought them close to the only major route supplying the Ukrainian army in that region, enabling the Russians to interdict traffic along it using fibre-optic drones. This past weekend, the Russians then struck the Ukrainians in force. Particularly notable was a daring raid deep into the Ukrainian rear by several hundred Russian troops who snuck under the Ukrainian positions using an abandoned gas pipeline. Within a day, the Ukrainian frontline had collapsed. Some soldiers were surrounded. Others abandoned their positions and attempted to break out to safety on foot in small groups. Some succeeded, others did not. Almost all heavy equipment was abandoned. Since then, the Russians have recaptured nearly all the territory occupied by the Ukrainians, and at the time of writing just four small villages remain under Ukrainian control. One may expect that they will also soon be taken.
By the standards of this war, this was a remarkably rapid advance, which also succeeded in inflicting heavy losses. Military strategy would dictate that this is not a good time to pause. The best time to attack an enemy is when he is retreating and in disarray. It seems that the Russians understand this. Visiting a command post in the Kursk region, Putin wore a full combat uniform for the first time in the war, a choice interpreted by many as a clear signal of his intent to continue fighting. During the visit, Putin also asked the Chief of the Russian General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, to consider creating a buffer zone inside Ukrainian territory. This strongly suggests that Putin wishes the Russian army to continue its advance.
It remains to be seen how quickly the Ukrainians will be able to stabilize the frontline as it moves from Kursk into the Ukrainian province of Sumy. Probably they will be able to do so in the weeks that follow by transferring units from other parts of the front. But the disorder produced by the rapid and disorganized retreat from Kursk is substantial, and it may take some time to establish a firm defence. Also, the lack of strategic reserves means that this can only be done by weakening other sectors, allowing the Russians to resume the offensive elsewhere. From a military perspective, the Ukrainian position looks increasingly bleak.
This helps explain why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has now abandoned his objection to any form of ceasefire and agreed to the 30-day proposal mentioned previously. His army is desperately in need of break. The Ukrainians remain, however, stubbornly opposed to major political concessions. As Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andrii Yermak explained this week, “For Ukraine, there are red lines—including that there can be no restrictions on the size of the defence forces and no prohibitions on Ukraine’s participation in international organisations, including the EU and NATO.” In short, Ukraine remains utterly opposed to all the things that Russia considers necessary for a permanent ceasefire.
Given this, it seems that despite all the diplomatic to-ing and fro-ing, the two sides remain far from even the most basic agreement. Arguably, the US has not played its diplomatic cards very well. By temporarily withdrawing aid from Ukraine it has managed to get the Ukrainians to do something that they had previously refused to do. That is progress of a sort. But in reality, by accepting a temporary ceasefire, all the Ukrainians have done is to agree to do something that is entirely in their own interests, and which they really should have agreed to long ago. But the US has not managed to extract from the Ukrainians any concessions that might be acceptable to the Russians. By now renewing aid to Ukraine, it has thrown away its leverage for the smallest of concessions rather than trying to extract something more meaningful. The Americans may now find that they have locked themselves into supporting a proposal that it is thoroughly one-sided and incapable of producing the result they want, namely an end to the war. Pressure then may mount to try to coerce the Russians into acceptance of something that is clearly against their interests, thereby bringing the situation back to the status quo ante.
Following the agreement in Jeddah between the US and Ukraine, numerous Western politicians went on social media to proclaim that the “ball is now in Russia’s court.” With his “yes, but” answer, Putin has now kicked it back into the court of the Americans. If Trump is serious about ending the war, he will need to engage seriously with the Russians’ conditions and be prepared once again to twist Zelensky’s arm. In the meantime, one may expect the Russians, fresh from their victory in Kursk, to continue to ramp up the military pressure.
Paul Robinson
March 14, 2025
“Yes, but,” might be the best way of summarizing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to the joint US-Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine that emerged from talks between American and Ukrainian delegates in Jeddah earlier this week. “We are for it, but there are nuances,” he told reporters. Any ceasefire should be permanent, not temporary, and should address the root causes of the war. Besides which, there were unanswered questions, said Putin. Would the ceasefire be used to rearm Ukraine? Who would monitor the ceasefire, prevent violations, and ensure that fighting did not again erupt? These issues, he said would have to be discussed with the Americans before moving forward.
This was, one might say, a polite way of rejecting the ceasefire proposal without actually rejecting it, while leaving the door open for further negotiations and for the possibility of a ceasefire of a different sort at some future point. The reasons for the rejection are clear. From a military standpoint, Ukraine has a lot more to gain from a ceasefire than Russia, especially a temporary ceasefire of the sort being proposed. The Russians have also made it clear again and again that they are not interested in ending the war in a way that leaves key issues unsettled. Such an ending would create a situation in which there was a perpetual danger of renewed conflict. Since European states are saying that they wish to use a ceasefire to arm Ukraine to the teeth (turning it into a “steel porcupine,” according to EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen) and are also talking about sending troops to Ukraine in such circumstances, Moscow has some reasons to regard such an outcome with trepidation. It would put it in a position of permanent worry and insecurity.
Events on the frontline this week have further strengthened the Russians’ determination to press their military advantage. The past seven days have witnessed one of the most significant Russian victories of the war, routing the Ukrainian forces that have been occupying part of Russia’s Kursk province since last summer.
The Ukrainian position in Kursk had become very precarious over the past two months, as Russian advances brought them close to the only major route supplying the Ukrainian army in that region, enabling the Russians to interdict traffic along it using fibre-optic drones. This past weekend, the Russians then struck the Ukrainians in force. Particularly notable was a daring raid deep into the Ukrainian rear by several hundred Russian troops who snuck under the Ukrainian positions using an abandoned gas pipeline. Within a day, the Ukrainian frontline had collapsed. Some soldiers were surrounded. Others abandoned their positions and attempted to break out to safety on foot in small groups. Some succeeded, others did not. Almost all heavy equipment was abandoned. Since then, the Russians have recaptured nearly all the territory occupied by the Ukrainians, and at the time of writing just four small villages remain under Ukrainian control. One may expect that they will also soon be taken.
By the standards of this war, this was a remarkably rapid advance, which also succeeded in inflicting heavy losses. Military strategy would dictate that this is not a good time to pause. The best time to attack an enemy is when he is retreating and in disarray. It seems that the Russians understand this. Visiting a command post in the Kursk region, Putin wore a full combat uniform for the first time in the war, a choice interpreted by many as a clear signal of his intent to continue fighting. During the visit, Putin also asked the Chief of the Russian General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, to consider creating a buffer zone inside Ukrainian territory. This strongly suggests that Putin wishes the Russian army to continue its advance.
It remains to be seen how quickly the Ukrainians will be able to stabilize the frontline as it moves from Kursk into the Ukrainian province of Sumy. Probably they will be able to do so in the weeks that follow by transferring units from other parts of the front. But the disorder produced by the rapid and disorganized retreat from Kursk is substantial, and it may take some time to establish a firm defence. Also, the lack of strategic reserves means that this can only be done by weakening other sectors, allowing the Russians to resume the offensive elsewhere. From a military perspective, the Ukrainian position looks increasingly bleak.
This helps explain why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has now abandoned his objection to any form of ceasefire and agreed to the 30-day proposal mentioned previously. His army is desperately in need of break. The Ukrainians remain, however, stubbornly opposed to major political concessions. As Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andrii Yermak explained this week, “For Ukraine, there are red lines—including that there can be no restrictions on the size of the defence forces and no prohibitions on Ukraine’s participation in international organisations, including the EU and NATO.” In short, Ukraine remains utterly opposed to all the things that Russia considers necessary for a permanent ceasefire.
Given this, it seems that despite all the diplomatic to-ing and fro-ing, the two sides remain far from even the most basic agreement. Arguably, the US has not played its diplomatic cards very well. By temporarily withdrawing aid from Ukraine it has managed to get the Ukrainians to do something that they had previously refused to do. That is progress of a sort. But in reality, by accepting a temporary ceasefire, all the Ukrainians have done is to agree to do something that is entirely in their own interests, and which they really should have agreed to long ago. But the US has not managed to extract from the Ukrainians any concessions that might be acceptable to the Russians. By now renewing aid to Ukraine, it has thrown away its leverage for the smallest of concessions rather than trying to extract something more meaningful. The Americans may now find that they have locked themselves into supporting a proposal that it is thoroughly one-sided and incapable of producing the result they want, namely an end to the war. Pressure then may mount to try to coerce the Russians into acceptance of something that is clearly against their interests, thereby bringing the situation back to the status quo ante.
Following the agreement in Jeddah between the US and Ukraine, numerous Western politicians went on social media to proclaim that the “ball is now in Russia’s court.” With his “yes, but” answer, Putin has now kicked it back into the court of the Americans. If Trump is serious about ending the war, he will need to engage seriously with the Russians’ conditions and be prepared once again to twist Zelensky’s arm. In the meantime, one may expect the Russians, fresh from their victory in Kursk, to continue to ramp up the military pressure.
Can Trump’s Ukraine peace plan succeed?
By now renewing aid to Ukraine, it has thrown away its leverage for the smallest of concessions rather than trying to extract something more meaningful. The Americans may now find that they have locked themselves into supporting a proposal that it is thoroughly one-sided and incapable of...
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