Tariffs now expected to start March 1st
- Thread starter JeanGary Diablo
- Start date
Hardcore Project 2025. It's right there in the list of things that will make America great again.
China is winning the AI race and the economic race. The American superpower is starting to decline.
How does that work in practice? I believe the U.S. is a net exporter. More importantly, the U.S. has its own refineries which refines much Alberta oil. Now to say the U.S. refiners require Alberta oil is an understatement. Much of it is sent abroad, but that doesn't impact the domestic market.
Perhaps you are suggesting Canada could wreak havoc on the global oil market. I tend to think the world has plenty of oil in aggregate. Many producers could help fill the void.
I'm not necessarily supporting U.S. tariffs on Canada. I just don't know what the endgame is.
You're betting on a three-legged dog in this dog fight. (The Chinese government reports that this dog has six legs.)
In other threads, it has been discussed that China's economic data is completely meaningless. Beijing is tightening its grip on how the data is produced and how local analysts are allowed to discuss it. The simplest way to explain it is that Beijing and the provinces have encouraged a lot of investment into underutilized production and empty real estate. None of which has been marked down and the mark downs will be massive.
Likely, Beijing will continue to do what it has been doing and that is pour more money into these assets to keep valuations propped up. While everyone talks about U.S. debt, China is borrowing massive amounts to keep the economy from sinking into a major recession. A major recession might be smoothed over but China could look like Japan's economy in the 1990s.
Just think about the tens of millions of empty condos in China. (The government stopped keeping track.) Then think about a declining population that foreign analysts suspect is worse than the government is reporting. Further layer in the fact that many Chinese have much of their savings tied up in condo investments beyond their own home. The Shanghai stock index peaked in 2007 and is 40% lower today.
My fear and others isn't China the superpower rather we fear a stagnating and unstable China. Perhaps you have read about ethnic regionalism beneath the appearance of a unified China. Beijing is autocratic for a reason.
China's 1.4 billion population can't fill the country's millions of empty homes. Here are 3 things that would.
China's empty homes, based on experts' high estimates of vacant houses, could house nearly 10 times the population of the US.
www.businessinsider.com
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There's a certain sense to it. If you aren't very good at charting your own course, you simply sniff for the donkey droppings if you fall behind.
If the price of Canadian oil increases, they will have to raise their gasoline prices . We raise the prices high enough so they curtail production and exports. Some refinaries will close. They only export 900K bbls a day of gasoline so a hiked price of oil to about $95 a bbl will increase gasoline prices by about $1.20 a gallon. They have a surplus yes, but if we supply manage our oil and hike the price, they have to buy it. It will take years for them to redraw the map, and in that time we can build a couple more pipelines. Canada cannot really worry about the rest of the world, its us and the USA maybe Mexico if there are ways to collaborate with them.
I would also put a 100% tariff on any US built cars with less then 10 or 15% Canadian content. Car makers must know that if they strip us of our car industry they will not get market access. Worst comes to worst, we can get Magna and Linimar to build cars here in joint ventures with the Chinese, Koreans, Japanese or Euros.
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As I said, I believe we are a net exporter of oil. That means we produce more than enough for domestic consumption. Canada could impact the global price of oil in the short-run. But of course, that impacts everyone.
By the way, I also think you buy refined oil products from U.S. refineries.
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You lefties have no problem with carbon tax...why complain about tariffs? Just buy Canadian products...
Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next Tuesday. 10% on Canadian oil and products from China.
If Trump wants these tariffs to go into effect by Tuesday, he will have to use a tool called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which has never been used before. What's required is Trump to declare a national emergency.
This could possibly shut down a lot of Canadian industries by the end of the week. Either way, this is going to be very disruptive.
If the stock market tanks or there's widespread layoffs in the US, it could put a lot of pressure on him to roll things back. Or, being the sociopath that he is, he may not give shit and do nothing.
Edit: Trump says tariffs to remain in place until fentanyl overdose issue is sorted. The man truly is a piece of work!
If Trump wants these tariffs to go into effect by Tuesday, he will have to use a tool called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which has never been used before. What's required is Trump to declare a national emergency.
This could possibly shut down a lot of Canadian industries by the end of the week. Either way, this is going to be very disruptive.
If the stock market tanks or there's widespread layoffs in the US, it could put a lot of pressure on him to roll things back. Or, being the sociopath that he is, he may not give shit and do nothing.
Edit: Trump says tariffs to remain in place until fentanyl overdose issue is sorted. The man truly is a piece of work!
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Yes we do, does not matter they can't replace certain grades of oil easily. They stlll import oil from Russia for that reason. The NE refinaries are set up to refine Canadian oil and even if it was possible to get oil from other parts of the USA to these refinaries they can't really use it without very expensive and time consuming modifications. And they would still be well short of Diesel and Jet fuel .
My understanding is the majority of Midwest gas is from Canadian crude. Shifting production, transporting in means higher prices. So no matter what the mid west ends up with higher prices. It's a supply chain issue.
As for the rest, it's mostly resources. So aluminum for your steel making. Copper is coming. Just when you need to rebuild homes due to natural disasters wood will go up.
Potash for fertilizer is being done.
All it means for me is I won't be buying some things, and finding replacement for others.
Btw Trump is throwing tariffs out everywhere. So prices in the USA will go up.
In theory we can put our own reverse tariff on oil going down. And the USA would have no choice but to pay it.
Fortunately I'm set up that it will have zero effect. Any stock issues will eventually clear I assume. Jobs are not reliant on trade.
And I will adjust by buying.
I completely agree tariffs are inflationary. However, much of the media and Trump detractors make a non-dynamic assessment of tariffs.
First and most obvious, if you collect a tariff which is essentially a tax you can offset other taxes. Most importantly, you can improve employment and wages in certain sectors of the economy.
I don't know what the endgame is, but it's possible North America becomes a more open market across borders.
PS- I recall an argument made on a national financial show by a sharp guest. If you wanted the ultimate efficiency, everything would be manufactured by one company with Chinese and Indian labor.
I'm sure Trump will give another rich dude tax break, using this as a excuse.
And the income inequality will grow.
Trump is trying to play the winner/loser as opposed to winner/winner trade model. That works great as a hotel owner negotiating deals with one time vendors.
It doesn't for international relations. Canadians won't forget this soon.
The winner/winner trade model is an ideal that doesn't necessarily work in practice.
I'll say it again. I don't know the endgame. Fentanyl, more open trade, slap the Trudeau administration around, etc.
Jobs are not reliant on trade? That is a naive statement.
It's possible these tariffs could plunge Canada onto a recession. That is also never good for jobs.
